SE Crew - Cliff Diving

[yotaman]

I want another blizzard. Been in 4 in my lifetime. The famous 1980 one in Virginia Beach, 1996 Presidents day while in the mountains, a 2 mini blizzards in 1989 in Virginia Beach. I'm due.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

I honestly thought i was gonna wake up and the storm go poof. 

[CentralNC]

2 minutes ago, RaleighNC said:

where does one find the NAM?  I usually use Tropical Tidbits for model runs, but I don't see NAM on there.

Its under the Mesoscale models

[RaleighNC]

1 minute ago, CentralNC said:

Its under the Mesoscale models

thanks found it

[UnionCountyNCWX]

32 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

I honestly thought i was gonna wake up and the storm go poof. 

Nvm i was just a tad early. Now cones the heartbreak. 

[AirNelson39]

What a joke this is becoming for the triangle. The models have been pathetic. Majority of all models have a maxima over the triangle every run for days to now being in the minima. The NAM is going to be the leader on qpf again. It was the first to screw us on the last one too.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

39 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

What a joke this is becoming for the triangle. The models have been pathetic. Majority of all models have a maxima over the triangle every run for days to now being in the minima. The NAM is going to be the leader on qpf again. It was the first to screw us on the last one too.

Yea I mentioned in the main thread about how everyone was tossing the 18z nam yesterday because it looked wonky. Im not one to believe the accuracy of the long range NAM, but if it starts spitting out different solutions that dont match up with globals, you at least have to pay attention to it. 

[KyleEverett]

I've seen Metrolina get blanked in so many Low energy transfers that I still expect it to happen. If somehow this is the one time Charlotte wins while RDU loses, I think it's fair though!

Though Brad P just posted his call map and it's time to cliff dive cause he doesn't believe in the Upstate/Metrolina jackpots.

[AirNelson39]

NAM doubling down on triangle screw zone. Honestly that’s what I’m going with at this point. If it nails this one too I’m never listening to another negative post about the NAM

[ADB83]

NAM doubling down on triangle screw zone. Honestly that’s what I’m going with at this point. If it nails this one too I’m never listening to another negative post about the NAM

It’s supposed to be decommissioned this year so you may not have to either way lol


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[AirNelson39]

It’s supposed to be decommissioned this year so you may not have to either way lol


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Well if it nails this I’m starting a petition to revive it

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Its about to get hot in here.

[lilj4425]

These weather models are all over the damn place.

[ADB83]

Well if it nails this I’m starting a petition to revive it

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[ADB83]

Guys business is about to pick up in here. Not that it should be any surprise


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[NC DataDude]

*peeking in* from JoCo, NC....

Seems like feast or famine normally here...  Which will it be this time?  

 

[KrummWx]

I fully expect the dry slot to fuck over Raleigh/Wake County specifically. If that happens I may swear off this addiction for a long time

[SECane]

The models have been showing us getting a decent amount of snow in CLT consistently this week, which means we’re likely gonna find a way to screw it up when the actual event gets started based on past experience lol. I’ll be happy if we do get some of the totals they’re calling for though.

[Dunkman]

After 7+ years if I can’t get 4”+ out of this event it may be time to give up.

[KrummWx]

I mean I'm still oh so happy w 6" but like are you fuckin serious with that snow hole over the Triangle specifically....come on man

[wxdawg10]

1 minute ago, KrummWx said:

I mean I'm still oh so happy w 6" but like are you fuckin serious with that snow hole over the Triangle specifically....come on man

feels extremely targeted. like the weather gods are sitting back cackling because they enjoy screwing wake county for no reason

[KrummWx]

1 minute ago, wxdawg10 said:

feels extremely targeted. like the weather gods are sitting back cackling because they enjoy screwing wake county for no reason

it's ridiculous lol. only reason im not more mad is cause the immediate surrounding totals are only ~1-3" more, if it was more like 5"+ more i'd actually be seeking a literal cliff

[SECane]

When you see the models give you big numbers you gotta keep your expectations in check, and not get to greedy knowing where you live otherwise the actual amount you do get will seem underwelming.
 

Keeping my expectations around the 2 to 4 inch range, and I’ll be happy to get that since I haven’t seen more than 2 inches in years.

[scratchart]

It's funny how you never want to be in the best spot too far out because you know it's going to shift. 

But I'm in the Orange County dry slot and I just know that thing will not budge from here on out. Dreadful.  

[NorthHillsWx]

IMO the rug started getting pulled for RDU last night. We’ve seen the insane totals disappear and now we’re latching onto models showing 5-8” which still would be a good storm, but the bleeding isn’t stopping. Now CAMs coming in with 0-2” should scare everyone here. Legit chance of getting blanked while 3 days out almost all modeling had a foot plus. We knew it was a fickle setup, relying on a coastal to blow up overhead is risky business 

[NorthHillsWx]

Putting this in the cliff diving bc no one wants to hear it in main forum. Raleigh’s ceiling has fallen to likely an advisory or bare minimum warning level event. Think 12z Euro takes away all hope

[AirNelson39]

Wake will be lucky to get 2-3”. It’s becoming pretty obvious at this point. The GFS is a POS outside 48 hours and this event solidifies that. That’s the model that needs to be retired.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

The WCCB link thats posted in the main thread is basically going with the 0z NAM results that everyone discounted. 

[ADB83]

If this goes the way, it looks like it might. I’m gonna have to stop equal weighting the GFS with the other globals. It might be time to admit that it’s lesser tier and to stop considering it on the same level.


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[suzook]

LMFAO....I knew it would start getting busy in here. Wait until tomorrow. It will be very busy. Southern snow storms are just too hard to predict. On a good note, there will be many with some sort of snow. Just not what the clown maps are showing.