First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[ORH_wxman]

06z NAM is coming in more amped than 00z through 27h

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z NAM is coming in more amped than 00z through 27h

Roofus also

[ineedsnow]

NAM coming west

[ineedsnow]

NAM is going to be a good hit

[MJO812]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

NAM coming west

Nam so far

[MJO812]

Nam cranking up there

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam cranking up there

Much better and probably not done trending

[MJO812]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Much better and probably not done trending

Roofus

[ineedsnow]

Chased convection at the last minute.. if that wasn't there it would have been a big hit

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Chased convection at the last minute.. if that wasn't there it would have been a big hit

Wow

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Chased convection at the last minute.. if that wasn't there it would have been a big hit

The vort didn’t quite curl like 00z but everything started west so the end result was pretty similar to 00z…it was heftier south of here. Maybe a bit better on south shore as well. 

[ineedsnow]

YES!

[MJO812]

3k Nam is also much further north and west. Nice for Cape.

[MJO812]

Roofus

[dendrite]

We’re going to be in trouble when NCEP drops all of the models for just the rrfs.

[MJO812]

Rgem more amped

[MJO812]

[ORH_wxman]

Icon was more amped too. 

[dendrite]

Some of these runs look a hair flatter, but they’re finding a way to get more precip NW. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GFS! Massive jump nw

[ineedsnow]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Icon was more amped too. 

6z GFS came west.. wiz mentioned recon flying yesterday.. Just looked on tropical tidbits and they have another plane flying now.. I wonder if that data is getting into models now?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Some of these runs look a hair flatter, but they’re finding a way to get more precip NW. 

Like AI was trying to tell us 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Like AI was trying to tell us 

heh…yeah maybe. I still think they tend to broadbrush too much, but maybe it’s a signal if they’re significantly NW with QPF.

We need one of those events with a sharp N cutoff to see if they can pin down tight gradients. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, dendrite said:

heh…yeah maybe. I still think they tend to broadbrush too much, but maybe it’s a signal if they’re significantly NW with QPF.

We need one of those events with a sharp N cutoff to see if they can pin down tight gradients. 

Will be very interesting for sure.  Kind of a cool milestone if they score a coup. Still 30 hours to go time. Plenty will change ..

[Damage In Tolland]

AI’s FTW. Snowy weekend!! 

[dendrite]

GFS is a lot more amped and NW. AI is a bit too. 

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z GFS came west.. wiz mentioned recon flying yesterday.. Just looked on tropical tidbits and they have another plane flying now.. I wonder if that data is getting into models now?

Maybe…not sure how much effect it would have on the orientation of the vortmax at that scale, but I guess the more data to initialize in the better. 

[dendrite]

Last 4 runs of the goofus. More downstream ridging and curling in of that vortmax  

[The 4 Seasons]

Pulling a Feb 5 2016 out of the hat

Still cautiously optimistic on a moderate event

Canada ftw

[ineedsnow]

Big bump west on the GEFS