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First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us


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1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Chased convection at the last minute.. if that wasn't there it would have been a big hit

The vort didn’t quite curl like 00z but everything started west so the end result was pretty similar to 00z…it was heftier south of here. Maybe a bit better on south shore as well. 

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1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Like AI was trying to tell us 

heh…yeah maybe. I still think they tend to broadbrush too much, but maybe it’s a signal if they’re significantly NW with QPF.

We need one of those events with a sharp N cutoff to see if they can pin down tight gradients. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

heh…yeah maybe. I still think they tend to broadbrush too much, but maybe it’s a signal if they’re significantly NW with QPF.

We need one of those events with a sharp N cutoff to see if they can pin down tight gradients. 

Will be very interesting for sure.  Kind of a cool milestone if they score a coup. Still 30 hours to go time. Plenty will change ..

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15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z GFS came west.. wiz mentioned recon flying yesterday.. Just looked on tropical tidbits and they have another plane flying now.. I wonder if that data is getting into models now?

Maybe…not sure how much effect it would have on the orientation of the vortmax at that scale, but I guess the more data to initialize in the better. 

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