TSSN+ Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12z hrrr matched euro and ukmet for northern Maryland esp ne for a good little snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 48 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ya we need recon. I never seen a forecast two days out where it could be sunny or snowing 2-4” lol I bet my boots that the December 30, 2000 storm was like that. NWS promised (IIRC) 3 to 6 inches inside the Beltway - what we got was *clear skies!* Epic level model fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 12z hrrr matched euro and ukmet for northern Maryland esp ne for a good little snow I'll take it, but I've never seen a system like this with snowfall inland. More typical of a coastal snowfall signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'll take it, but I've never seen a system like this with snowfall inland. More typical of a coastal snowfall signature. It’s coming from the low up north, also there’s a little vort/jet that comes up over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Nam also nails northern and NE Maryland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Whoa! 2-3" snow depth tomorrow between Westminster and Hagerstown on the 12z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Nam also nails northern and NE Maryland. Gotta hand it to the 2 Canadians. They've had this threat for days with only minor adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Whoa! 2-3" snow depth tomorrow between Westminster and Hagerstown on the 12z NAM Will need advisories soon if trend continues into 18z runs and also euro and ukmet hold or get better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, mitchnick said: Gotta hand it to the 2 Canadians. They've had this threat for days with only minor adjustments. Does that mean it is right for Sunday too? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Whoa! 2-3" snow depth tomorrow between Westminster and Hagerstown on the 12z NAM Like steaks in a crummy restaurant...a bit overdone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Does that mean it is right for Sunday too? lol One at a time! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, mitchnick said: Like steaks in a crummy restaurant...a bit overdone. It might not be. Euro has 2” and it’s been increasing each run. These are the sneak systems that can ramp up in the last 24 hrs. Let’s bring this one home. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3k Nam closer to reality probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 3k Nam closer to reality probably. Get that garbage out of here man. Snowy maps only Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago If euro holds I would expect advisories for some in northern Maryland. I can’t believe eastern Pa hasn’t put any up. Models been hitting there for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12z Hrr and NAM want nothing to do with the 2nd system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 12z Hrr and NAM want nothing to do with the 2nd system Which is probably correct lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Which is probably correct lol Yeah.. I mean they are big misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah.. I mean they are big misses Meanwhile the FV3 still trying for it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago NAM is a better model than GFS at this point. They are decommissioning the wrong one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago How accurate has the FV3 been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 26 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 3k Nam closer to reality probably. Despair back on the menu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Nam replacement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: Nam also nails northern and NE Maryland. Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 24 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nam replacement Icon with same idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago TAKE COVER (Virga) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This new Frederick-Westminster mini maxima feels right to me. As a longtime member of MD's snow anus here in the northern Balmer Burbs, fretting about missing a snow to the SE only to - PSYCHE! - miss it to the NW just feels right. At a certain point, when pain is all you know, pain becomes the only way you can feel anything at all. The pain is a gift. Sometimes I come on here during one of the many storms that have missed us over the last decade while burying someone else close by in the region just to look at everyone's happy snow pics and let the pain reassure me that I haven't gone completely numb. 2 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gfs is a miss finally gave up. Terrible model. Doesn’t even show snow tomorrow either. Going to bust on a 12hr forecast too. Shut it down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Difficult pattern with a lot of NS chaos. Probably more error associated with initial conditions, and maybe not enough data in some cases. no comment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, soadforecasterx said: How accurate has the FV3 been? It picked up these little snow showers happening out here today before anything else. I think its pretty good within 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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