January 16-18th: Rolling the dice

[TSSN+]

12z hrrr matched euro and ukmet for northern Maryland esp ne for a good little snow 

[kgottwald]

48 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya we need recon. I never seen a forecast two days out where it could be sunny or snowing 2-4” lol 

I bet my boots that the December 30, 2000 storm was like that. 

NWS promised (IIRC) 3 to 6 inches inside the Beltway - what we got was *clear skies!* Epic level model fail.

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

12z hrrr matched euro and ukmet for northern Maryland esp ne for a good little snow 

I'll take it, but I've never seen a system like this with snowfall inland. More typical of a coastal snowfall signature.

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll take it, but I've never seen a system like this with snowfall inland. More typical of a coastal snowfall signature.

It’s coming from the low up north, also there’s a little vort/jet that comes up over us. 

[TSSN+]

Nam also nails northern and NE Maryland. 
 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Whoa! 2-3" snow depth tomorrow between Westminster and Hagerstown on the 12z NAM

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Nam also nails northern and NE Maryland. 
 

 

Gotta hand it to the 2 Canadians. They've had this threat for days with only minor adjustments. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Whoa! 2-3" snow depth tomorrow between Westminster and Hagerstown on the 12z NAM

Will need advisories soon if trend continues into 18z runs and also euro and ukmet hold or get better 

[TSSN+]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Gotta hand it to the 2 Canadians. They've had this threat for days with only minor adjustments. 

Does that mean it is right for Sunday too? lol 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Whoa! 2-3" snow depth tomorrow between Westminster and Hagerstown on the 12z NAM

Like steaks in a crummy restaurant...a bit overdone.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Does that mean it is right for Sunday too? lol 

One at a time! Lol

[TSSN+]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Like steaks in a crummy restaurant...a bit overdone.

It might not be. Euro has 2” and it’s been increasing each run. These are the sneak systems that can ramp up in the last 24 hrs. Let’s bring this one home. 

[mitchnick]

3k Nam closer to reality probably. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

3k Nam closer to reality probably. 

Get that garbage out of here man. Snowy maps only  Haha 

[TSSN+]

If euro holds I would expect advisories for some in northern Maryland. I can’t believe eastern Pa hasn’t put any up. Models been hitting there for days. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z Hrr and NAM want nothing to do with the 2nd system

[TSSN+]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z Hrr and NAM want nothing to do with the 2nd system

Which is probably correct lol 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Which is probably correct lol 

Yeah.. I mean they are big misses

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah.. I mean they are big misses

Meanwhile the FV3 still trying for it lol 

[osfan24]

NAM is a better model than GFS at this point. They are decommissioning the wrong one.

[soadforecasterx]

How accurate has the FV3 been? 

[WxUSAF]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

3k Nam closer to reality probably. 

Despair back on the menu

[mitchnick]

Nam replacement 

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Nam also nails northern and NE Maryland. 
 

 

Yes please

[TSSN+]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nam replacement 

Icon with same idea. 

[paulythegun]

TAKE COVER (Virga)

[TowsonWeather]

This new Frederick-Westminster mini maxima feels right to me. 

As a longtime member of MD's snow anus here in the northern Balmer Burbs, fretting about missing a snow to the SE only to - PSYCHE! - miss it to the NW just feels right.  

At a certain point, when pain is all you know, pain becomes the only way you can feel anything at all. The pain is a gift. Sometimes I come on here during one of the many storms that have missed us over the last decade while burying someone else close by in the region just to look at everyone's happy snow pics and let the pain reassure me that I haven't gone completely numb. 

[TSSN+]

Gfs is a miss finally gave up. Terrible model. Doesn’t even show snow tomorrow either. Going to bust on a 12hr forecast too. Shut it down. 

[pazzo83]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Difficult pattern with a lot of NS chaos. Probably more error associated with initial conditions, and maybe not enough data in some cases.

no comment.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, soadforecasterx said:

How accurate has the FV3 been? 

It picked up these little snow showers happening out here today before anything else. I think its pretty good within 36 hours.