2026 Foothills thread

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

@wncsnow just guaranteed me 10” is what I heard

Its more than I can guarantee my wife 

[WXNewton]

One interesting thing to note, over the past 3 runs in MBY the GFS AI and EURO AI have only made small adjustments in QPF in the amount of .05-.08 either up or down. Where-as the OP EURO and OP GFS over the past three runs have had more wild swings in QPF of .22"-.27". When looking at the ensembles for both EURO and EURO AI as well as GFS those QPF swings are much smoother and the difference is not as much of a wild swing as the OPs have been showing from time to time. Thinking about the models this way and really digging into the ensembles has helped me to not ride each single OP run for the potential wild ups and downs that it may show. All and all after looking at many different averages and taking the fairly rock steady ensembles into account I am starting to feel confident that my area will see somewhere between .35"-.45" of precip and factoring in about a 16-17:1 ratio, amounts should be in the range of 6"-7". 

[BooneWX]

What a NAM run!

[wncsnow]

Acceptable 

[strongwxnc]

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Acceptable 

Trying to figure out it is bombs off the coast IMO. Again, waling the line with Lower (but great totals) down this way. 

Looks good to me. That min has been showing up though as stated down here. 

 

[strongwxnc]

[BooneWX]

Insights from our king


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[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Insights from our king


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It keeps saying on Gemini that it favors the Blue Ridge more than the Triangle for heaviest snow. 

[strongwxnc]

what does the bolded mean? Found in the latest GSP AFD

Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate incredibly cold profiles with a deep dendritic growth zone and plenty of forcing in part from strong DPVA with the upper low.

[wncsnow]

Latest RDPS

[calculus1]

17 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

 

12 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

 

Wow, both those images are quite bullish for our area a full two days out. Fingers crossed...

[BooneWX]

I’m glad to see some of these models moving the biggest maxima to Charlotte. They deserve as much, if not more, than we do. No southern city has been shafted worse than them. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

29 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

what does the bolded mean? Found in the latest GSP AFD

Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate incredibly cold profiles with a deep dendritic growth zone and plenty of forcing in part from strong DPVA with the upper low.

Differential Positive Vorticty Advection 

[calculus1]

WPC thinks it's a slam dunk that we at least have an inch of snowfall by the end of day 3. Not sure I've ever been in the 90% probability swath this far out.

 

[BooneWX]

Wpc and NWS understand lee enhancement. Globals do not

[WNC_Fort]

I’m going 1-3” for most of the foothills. Higher as you go east. Too many models are picking up on that minima. Rather aim low and hope we get more! 

[CentralNC]

Just now, WNC_Fort said:

I’m going 1-3” for most of the foothills. Higher as you go east. Too many models are picking up on that minima. Rather aim low and hope we get more! 

You are wise.  There is ALWAYS a screw zone with these coastal systems.  Too soon to say where it will be, but rest assure there will be cliff diving this weekend.

[BooneWX]

I don’t mind the globles showing a min but I’m getting nervous about it repeatedly showing up in cams that I’d hope would be starting to sniff out meso features 

[wncsnow]

Still too early to take what the Cams say to heart. 

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I don’t mind the globles showing a min but I’m getting nervous about it repeatedly showing up in cams that I’d hope would be starting to sniff out meso features 

I knew it.  I’ll probably get a dusting while everybody else gets over a foot. 

[wncsnow]

AIFS looking solid 

[BooneWX]

I’m fine for now but any less at 0z, I’ll press the panic alarm 

[wncsnow]

Op Euro increased a little here

[WXNewton]

18z ICON was a good hit this evening for our area 

[strongwxnc]

I’m fine for now but any less at 0z, I’ll press the panic alarm 

12 hr rule. alarms at 1 pm Friday.


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[WiseWeather]

After that euro run… i dont think panic should be in our vocabulary


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[strongwxnc]

Boom



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[WNC_Fort]

Now the 18z Euro starts to make me feel a bit better. Keep it going.

[lilj4425]

Just now, strongwxnc said:

Boom



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Finally that dry slot is gone. 

[JoshM]

3 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Boom