wncsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said: @wncsnow just guaranteed me 10” is what I heard Its more than I can guarantee my wife 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago One interesting thing to note, over the past 3 runs in MBY the GFS AI and EURO AI have only made small adjustments in QPF in the amount of .05-.08 either up or down. Where-as the OP EURO and OP GFS over the past three runs have had more wild swings in QPF of .22"-.27". When looking at the ensembles for both EURO and EURO AI as well as GFS those QPF swings are much smoother and the difference is not as much of a wild swing as the OPs have been showing from time to time. Thinking about the models this way and really digging into the ensembles has helped me to not ride each single OP run for the potential wild ups and downs that it may show. All and all after looking at many different averages and taking the fairly rock steady ensembles into account I am starting to feel confident that my area will see somewhere between .35"-.45" of precip and factoring in about a 16-17:1 ratio, amounts should be in the range of 6"-7". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago What a NAM run! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Acceptable Trying to figure out it is bombs off the coast IMO. Again, waling the line with Lower (but great totals) down this way. Looks good to me. That min has been showing up though as stated down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Insights from our king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Insights from our king . It keeps saying on Gemini that it favors the Blue Ridge more than the Triangle for heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago what does the bolded mean? Found in the latest GSP AFD Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate incredibly cold profiles with a deep dendritic growth zone and plenty of forcing in part from strong DPVA with the upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Latest RDPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted 54 minutes ago Share Posted 54 minutes ago 17 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: 12 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Wow, both those images are quite bullish for our area a full two days out. Fingers crossed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 48 minutes ago Share Posted 48 minutes ago I’m glad to see some of these models moving the biggest maxima to Charlotte. They deserve as much, if not more, than we do. No southern city has been shafted worse than them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted 34 minutes ago Share Posted 34 minutes ago 29 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: what does the bolded mean? Found in the latest GSP AFD Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate incredibly cold profiles with a deep dendritic growth zone and plenty of forcing in part from strong DPVA with the upper low. Differential Positive Vorticty Advection 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted 10 minutes ago Share Posted 10 minutes ago WPC thinks it's a slam dunk that we at least have an inch of snowfall by the end of day 3. Not sure I've ever been in the 90% probability swath this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 9 minutes ago Share Posted 9 minutes ago Wpc and NWS understand lee enhancement. Globals do not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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