wncsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said: @wncsnow just guaranteed me 10” is what I heard Its more than I can guarantee my wife 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 One interesting thing to note, over the past 3 runs in MBY the GFS AI and EURO AI have only made small adjustments in QPF in the amount of .05-.08 either up or down. Where-as the OP EURO and OP GFS over the past three runs have had more wild swings in QPF of .22"-.27". When looking at the ensembles for both EURO and EURO AI as well as GFS those QPF swings are much smoother and the difference is not as much of a wild swing as the OPs have been showing from time to time. Thinking about the models this way and really digging into the ensembles has helped me to not ride each single OP run for the potential wild ups and downs that it may show. All and all after looking at many different averages and taking the fairly rock steady ensembles into account I am starting to feel confident that my area will see somewhere between .35"-.45" of precip and factoring in about a 16-17:1 ratio, amounts should be in the range of 6"-7". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 What a NAM run! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Acceptable Trying to figure out it is bombs off the coast IMO. Again, waling the line with Lower (but great totals) down this way. Looks good to me. That min has been showing up though as stated down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Insights from our king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Insights from our king . It keeps saying on Gemini that it favors the Blue Ridge more than the Triangle for heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 what does the bolded mean? Found in the latest GSP AFD Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate incredibly cold profiles with a deep dendritic growth zone and plenty of forcing in part from strong DPVA with the upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Latest RDPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 17 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: 12 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Wow, both those images are quite bullish for our area a full two days out. Fingers crossed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I’m glad to see some of these models moving the biggest maxima to Charlotte. They deserve as much, if not more, than we do. No southern city has been shafted worse than them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 29 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: what does the bolded mean? Found in the latest GSP AFD Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate incredibly cold profiles with a deep dendritic growth zone and plenty of forcing in part from strong DPVA with the upper low. Differential Positive Vorticty Advection 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 WPC thinks it's a slam dunk that we at least have an inch of snowfall by the end of day 3. Not sure I've ever been in the 90% probability swath this far out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Wpc and NWS understand lee enhancement. Globals do not 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I’m going 1-3” for most of the foothills. Higher as you go east. Too many models are picking up on that minima. Rather aim low and hope we get more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, WNC_Fort said: I’m going 1-3” for most of the foothills. Higher as you go east. Too many models are picking up on that minima. Rather aim low and hope we get more! You are wise. There is ALWAYS a screw zone with these coastal systems. Too soon to say where it will be, but rest assure there will be cliff diving this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I don’t mind the globles showing a min but I’m getting nervous about it repeatedly showing up in cams that I’d hope would be starting to sniff out meso features Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Still too early to take what the Cams say to heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I don’t mind the globles showing a min but I’m getting nervous about it repeatedly showing up in cams that I’d hope would be starting to sniff out meso features I knew it. I’ll probably get a dusting while everybody else gets over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 AIFS looking solid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I’m fine for now but any less at 0z, I’ll press the panic alarm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Op Euro increased a little here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 18z ICON was a good hit this evening for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 I’m fine for now but any less at 0z, I’ll press the panic alarm 12 hr rule. alarms at 1 pm Friday. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 After that euro run… i dont think panic should be in our vocabulary . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 Boom . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Now the 18z Euro starts to make me feel a bit better. Keep it going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, strongwxnc said: Boom . Finally that dry slot is gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Boom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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