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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026


BooneWX
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RAH pretty aggressive for that office:

00z GFS and ECMWF depict
a more vigorous shortwave that swings across the Southeast US and
Carolinas on Sunday, with a surface cyclone that develops off the
coast of the Carolinas and moves NE. With very cold temperatures
aloft by this point (and Sunday`s surface temperatures staying in
the 30s at least based on the latest raw guidance), any
precipitation that falls over central NC is likely to be snow, but
the question is how much precipitation (if any) we actually receive.
The GFS is sharper with the trough aloft compared to the ECMWF,
resulting in snow across a larger portion of the area compared to
the ECMWF which is more focused in the east. Regardless, considering
nearly half of ECMWF ensembles and over half of GFS ensembles depict
accumulating snow across the area, it bears watching. WPC QPF is
light at this time but could increase if models converge on a
surface low track closer to the coast.
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