BornAgain13 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 12z CMC is a hit on the 19th for a lot of folks with Snow/ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 12z CMC at the end of its run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 17 hours ago Author Share Posted 17 hours ago 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z CMC at the end of its run The first storm is on the table but by “on the table,” it could be a table setter for something much larger with that second storm. scoring the first would be an absolute coup, but the cmc uses it to help establish a much better environment for the second storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 4 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The first storm is on the table but by “on the table,” it could be a table setter for something much larger with that second storm. scoring the first would be an absolute coup, but the cmc uses it to help establish a much better environment for the second storm. Yeah, basically the more the trough digs on the first storm the more it sets up the second storm to take a favorable southerly track. For once I'm not overly concerned about suppression after the cold air is established 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Ok lets just keep this energy up until march!!!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago By the way, the CMC was cold smoke! High ratios! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 12z AI GFS has a Winter Storm for many in the 18th-19th time frame 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago On 12/30/2025 at 7:48 AM, Met1985 said: How's the 10th through the 20th looking fellas? Not bad at all actually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Cautiously optimistic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago A word of caution: I've noticed over the years the GFS has a tendency to over amplify the back side of late phasing storms for the Piedmont. This feels to me like more of a coastal VA threat, although we normally don't get the trough to dig down to the Gulf Coast in these scenarios, so that helps 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago It may turn out to be a nothing burger but at least we have real potential within 7 days. That hasnt happened since last winter and some of the looks we are seeing haven't been seen in even longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Definitely not getting my hopes up to much. Will stay cautious but excited lol. Let's see what the Euro has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 12z Euro is a No. Rain. To warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z Euro is a No. Rain. To warm. We all knew that was coming. The only positive take away is that it also has an east coast storm. I keep hearing the EPS is overdoing the SER consistently for months, so it's not ridiculous to hope this could trend better on the Euro Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago Well now hold on. The euro is absolutely not rain on storm 2. The 500mb setup is a major winter storm. Waiting on the surface maps to load. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago Shockingly good agreement on storm 1 at this range from the euro and gfs at least upstairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago @BooneWXyou take it away. Sorry. The 15th/16th storm is rain with some light snow in central NC and VA. Now for storm #2.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago ...disagree on 15th/16th just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago Biggest issue with storm one on the euro is a partial/very late phase. She’s going off to do important work in establishing the cold for storm 2 though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Both were super close to being bigger. Lots of potential and time to iron out details 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago Storm 2 doesn’t quite deliver but as @wncsnowsaid, the pieces are there. Plenty to be excited about after that 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago 9 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Well now hold on. The euro is absolutely not rain on storm 2. The 500mb setup is a major winter storm. Waiting on the surface maps to load. Admittedly jumped the gun but our 500mb look was great at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Yeah the 2nd storm ends up being to warm with rain. But still plenty of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Mountains get smoked from system 2 mostly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Not sure what made storm #2 cut this time but either way we track on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago Who’s having fun?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, BornAgain13 said: Not sure what made storm #2 cut this time but either way we track on! Yep! The chase in on...now prepare for all the ups and downs that come every 6 hours for the next 5-8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Not sure what made storm #2 cut this time but either way we track on! Someone more intelligent than me would have to confirm but with 0z on top and 12z below, we gained more west Atlantic ridging. You can see the pressure it puts on the energy and nudges it too far west. The low it spawns cuts with it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Anyone else notice the lack of freezing rate being spit out by any of the models...... no CAD and not much low level cold air. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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