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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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1 hour ago, frd said:

CPC latest ensemble forecast for the AO have it forecasted to go to -4 with a great consensus of members.

Meanwhile the NAO is forecasted to go negative at the same time the subtropical jet stream becomes more active.

This will lead to an increased probability of a MECS in the time frame of interest,  as mentioned by others here.

Let's Go !!! :snowman:

just to further buttress your claims, they all have the AO around -4 to -5 SD

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Screenshot 2026-01-18 at 10.37.07 AM.png

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Screenshot 2026-01-18 at 10.37.23 AM.png

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4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

What did I do? lol 

Wait, I thought he was takling about GreyHat, not you!   We're keeping you and Ralph. And Mitch.

But to keep this weather related, GFS is basically the same, although that s/ws out just off the pacific coast looks like its trying to do that hook up thing it did yesterday

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Wait, I thought he was takling about GreyHat, not you!   We're keeping you and Ralph. And Mitch.

But to keep this weather related, GFS is basically the same, although that s/ws out just off the pacific coast looks like its trying to do that hook up thing it did yesterday

Ah ok I was confused myself. I didn’t know GreyShat was also in pa threads haha. Yes onto the weather! 

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Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ah ok I was confused myself. I didn’t know Greyshat was also in pa threads haha. Yes onto the weather! 

I thought Grey was from PA.  Man, don't pay attention to me for a while today.  I need to recover.    Even this pbp gonna be shakey

So, yeah gfs coming in with an amp'd s/w out west vs 6z

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I thought Grey was from PA.  Man, don't pay attention to me for a while today.  I need to recover.    Even this pbp gonna be shakey

So, yeah gfs coming in with an amp'd s/w out west vs 6z

Who knows, the way he post about Delaware I though he was from there. Whatever he’s muted so yay!
 

Come on Randy bring this storm home! 

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2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Who knows, the way he post about Delaware I though he was from there. Whatever he’s muted so yay!
 

Come on Randy bring this storm home! 

I do think Ralph was talking about letting this forum keep you and he’d stay in PA. But it’s hard to read people’s cryptic messaging.

You guys bashing Ji’s insufferable posting is so funny to me. He just has the audacity to bitch and moan about the things half of you pathetic snow weenies think in your head but are smart enough to refrain from saying.

There’s plenty of folks in here that would have a bad day or kick their dog after a bad set of 12z runs during tracking… :guitar:

here’s to hoping today’s 12z can keep our window in tact for next weekend. I wouldn’t mind seeing 1 or 2 fantasy hits to goon over while the ensembles honk the window.

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6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Who knows, the way he post about Delaware I though he was from there. Whatever he’s muted so yay!
 

Come on Randy bring this storm home! 

You guess is correct by Felton Delaware. I posted yesterday from My sister's farm by Egles Mere while I was visiting my sister and bow hunting. 

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6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I do think Ralph was talking about letting this forum keep you and he’d stay in PA. But it’s hard to read people’s cryptic messaging.

You guys bashing Ji’s insufferable posting is so funny to me. He just has the audacity to bitch and moan about the things half of you pathetic snow weenies think in your head but are smart enough to refrain from saying.

There’s plenty of folks in here that would have a bad day or kick their dog after a bad set of 12z runs during tracking… :guitar:

here’s to hoping today’s 12z can keep our window in tact for next weekend. I wouldn’t mind seeing 1 or 2 fantasy hits to goon over while the ensembles honk the window.

I was saying keep asshat we dont want him in PA and in return I would stay there. Dear lord ha!

Allen Iverson GFS is SICK for the 25th.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I was saying keep asshat we dont want him in PA and in return I would stay there. Dear lord ha!

Allen Iverson GFS is SICK for the 25th.

You like to get all your gooning done before noon I see. :lol:

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