January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

Although its the trailing energy the produces the lift and precip on previous runs, so maybe

[Terpeast]

Seeing a trend in the last 3-4 gfs runs. Might steal a little something there?

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, too far east.  Just some interesting changes

WB is behind. Its around 15z Tues that is of interest.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

100% Agree. Bone chilling cold with no snow sucks.

Then you don’t like winter weather .Come back in May 

 

[soadforecasterx]

Really like the trends on icon and gfs. Always felt the second storm had the better chance 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

WB is behind. Its around 15z Tues that is of interest.

Yeah nothing. GFS is so inconsistent and bad, and its the only model that offers any hope lol.

[CAPE]

The ens mean has been somewhat better, so lets see what it has. Still 6-7 days out

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah nothing. GFS is so inconsistent and bad, and its the only model that offers any hope lol.

You care more about Tuesday then Sunday? I think I'd be more into trending this look into something more favorable than the scraps on the backside, but willing to be convinced.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You care more about Tuesday then Sunday? I think I'd be more into trending this look into something more favorable than the scraps on the backside, but willing to be convinced.

I care about snow, not the date lol. The GFS keys on a different piece of energy every other run it seems. Lately its been 19th or 20th for our region or just north.

12z run-

[CAPE]

Yeah I will take scraps bro if this is the result-

[Heisy]

Now this we take…



.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, CAPE said:

Yeah I will take scraps bro if this is the result-

Don't get me wrong the scraps are tasty, but thought most of the more optimistic ens were keying in on the Sunday/Monday thing trending to more of a coastal as opposed to the extra lift from the trailing energy following that vort pass. Beggers can't be choosers either way

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Don't get me wrong the scraps are tasty, but thought most of the more optimistic ens were keying in on the Sunday/Monday thing trending to more of a coastal as opposed to the extra lift from the trailing energy following that vort pass. Beggers can't be choosers either way

I think that chance might be gone. The primary energy is likely too little too late wrt orientation and also sharpness. Still time with this one though and the guidance has been erratic as hell.

[NorthArlington101]

GFS keeping "my" storm alive. Verbatim would be a heartbreaker for some of us... what could go wrong 10 days out!

[TSSN+]

Folks? 

[bncho]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS keeping "my" storm alive. Verbatim would be a heartbreaker for some of us... what could go wrong 10 days out!

January 6th 2025 storm trended 200 miles south in 7 days, and it's the GFS

 

[bncho]

GFS is an absolute sleet fest. It would be a fun storm, just not the one we want.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS keeping "my" storm alive. Verbatim would be a heartbreaker for some of us... what could go wrong 10 days out!

Hey now both PSU and I staked a claim on that period, but if he agrees then its yours.

[TSSN+]

Porn run for i70 north. Dear god lol 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

January 6th 2025 storm trended 200 miles south in 7 days, and it's the GFS

 

17 degrees and pounding sleet would be epic in it's own way. I'd put this in the digital snow thread but it's name implies sleet doesn't work there

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Porn run for i70 north. Dear god lol 

what in the world

[bncho]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

17 degrees and pounding sleet would be epic in it's own way. I'd put this in the digital snow thread but it's name implies sleet doesn't work there

It would be one hell of a cool storm.

[bncho]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

what in the world

IN TWENTY-FOUR HOURS LMFAO

[bncho]

GFS filps back to snow for the cities.

[CAPE]

GEFS 12z and 18z- a little more consistent than the op, as expected.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

what in the world

I’d give my left nut, lung, kidney for that solution. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

what in the world

50" for Pittsburgh...rofl

[bncho]

with the flip back to 12" of fluffy snow, I would sign for the GFS right now.

[TSSN+]

A storm like that would finally bring peace to the Middle Eas… Atlantic 

[CAPE]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

A storm like that would finally bring piece to the Middle Eas… Atlantic 

Peace

Yeah when it shifts south 80 miles.