January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

I got nothing notable to say.  GFS nearly identical through 66hr

[stormtracker]

I can almost feel the anxiety and sweat from you all right now.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I got nothing notable to say.  GFS nearly identical through 66hr

Ya so far not much change. Energy might be shifted a tiny bit sw overall. 

[Ji]

I got nothing notable to say.  GFS nearly identical through 66hr

Take us home

[baltosquid]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ya so far not much change. Energy might be shifted a tiny bit sw overall. 

Higher heights in the west as well.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I see some 'stuff' already this run but imma let Randy do his thing and bring us home.

[bncho]

my life has been simplified to spamming the reload button on weatherbell

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I see some 'stuff' already this run but imma let Randy do his thing and bring us home.

I do too, but I'm way more conservative in trying to call things..so I like to wait

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I do too, but I'm way more conservative in trying to call things..so I like to wait

 Aww Randy now ya got me drooling bro lol

[Ji]

my life has been simplified to spamming the reload button on weatherbell

It’s probably you causing all delays on weatherbell

[TSSN+]

Doesn’t look like it will be as good. The sw energy that dives in from the lakes is shallower. Doesn’t dig as much. 

[Duca892]

I’m literally waiting with bated breath. Please hold you stupid son of a bitch

[stormtracker]

So, not sure I like the way the southern vort is kinda trailing a lil...we'll see.  Not really phasing like 12z so far

[bncho]

It's trying...

[Ji]

Doug Kammerer posted the 12z gfs snowfall map on Facebook and said not to buy it. He will get 2k likes just for posting the map lol

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Doesn’t look like it will be as good. The sw energy that dives in from the lakes is shallower. Doesn’t dig as much. 

Yeah saw that earlier, but wanna see if it's just slower or will dig further

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah saw that earlier, but wanna see if it's just slower or will dig further

Think it kinda looks more like 12z euro here low will probably be more north. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah saw that earlier, but wanna see if it's just slower or will dig further

I def think this run will be "worse" (less deep trough and slightly more positive tilt) but grand scheme of things nothing major has changed. 

18z

12z

[TSSN+]

Ya still should be decent storm this run but just a shift north. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Think it kinda looks more like 12z euro here low will probably be more north. 

That's where I am right now.  low looks to be developing further north like right next to us.  That dig at h5 just wasn't far enough like 12z

[stormtracker]

Yeah, it's a definite step back.  Won't be anywhere near as good.

EDIT..although some heavier is trying to get going, but the H5 map is shallower than 12z.   Let's see what the precip maps show coming up

[bncho]

It was an asshair of a change upstream but it changed a lot downstream. Goes to show you how volatile this system is.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I def think this run will be "worse" (less deep trough and slightly more positive tilt) but grand scheme of things nothing major has changed. 

18z

12z

Meh - think that extra dig isn’t insignificant for a lot of us but it’s the kind of thing we won’t figure out at this range anyway so not worth worrying about. 
 

mostly just want to see the EURO show anything substantial. Like even 2” would be nice 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I def think this run will be "worse" (less deep trough and slightly more positive tilt) but grand scheme of things nothing major has changed. 

18z

12z

More interaction with the vortex over SE Quebec province. That thing needs to gtfoh.

[Ji]

Having a perfect run 132 hours out is tough because there is no room for improvement.

Now we have room for improvement again or

Another huge step back lol

[stormtracker]

126 trying to redeem

 

Getting raked at 129

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

More interaction with the vortex over SE Quebec province. That thing needs to gtfoh.

I've learned  over time to never bet on NS junk to behave in a nina

[bncho]

The low is forming as the trough tilts, will be a step back but I think we still see some decent snow.

[TSSN+]

Not like it’s too much different few tweaks 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, bncho said:

It was an asshair of a change upstream but it changed a lot downstream. Goes to show you how volatile this system is.

Tbh there is so much interaction going on upstairs that I think the only thing we can look for is the setup staying relatively the same (and other models moving towards GFS) and then seeing which way it might actually go within 48 hours of the event as everything is in motion.