January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Math/Met]

Weathernext 2 is on StormVista hobby level.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Excellent!

this was what I had seen  so I feel a little bad I didn’t  double check on which level you had to pay  for 

https://imgur.com/a/xKneP92
 

 

 

[Math/Met]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Excellent!

this was what I had seen  so I feel a little bad I didn’t  double check on which level you had to pay  for 

https://imgur.com/a/xKneP92
 

 

 

I couldn't really find any information about which level it was on, so just took a chance on the hobby. It's there.

[John1122]

Obviously can't trust the Euro at all, but what a crazy cold snow event. Alaska ratios. 

[Mr Bob]

Indeed...Weathernext is there. I assume I have the hobbyist level...CWG gave me gratis access upon retirement. I am sure it is just another path to disappointment! 

[TellicoWx]

Shhh...dont wanna scare it away this time lol

[John1122]

The Euro obliterates far eastern areas and SWVa, those of us on the 75 corridor don't fare very well.

[Matthew70]

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

Obviously can't trust the Euro at all, but what a crazy cold snow event. Alaska ratios. 

I have invited the euro & whomever he likes to come over this weekend!! 

[John1122]

ICON was decent for the East, 40 north, and still snowing at the end. It was possibly going where the other Models went at 0z. Everything is shifting NW but most of us may be too far west.  

[fountainguy97]

I will not get excited. I will not get excited. I will not get excited. I will no get excited. I will not get excited. I will not get excited.

 

just absurd soundings for east tn.. ratios are 25:1+

[Vol4Life]

5 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I will not get excited. I will not get excited. I will not get excited. I will no get excited. I will not get excited. I will not get excited.

 

just absurd soundings for east tn.. ratios are 25:1+

If I’m not mistaken, this has been trending back to the west/NW, correct?

[fountainguy97]

1 minute ago, Vol4Life said:

If I’m not mistaken, this has been trending back to the west/NW, correct?

Yes it has. ETN is just on the fringe.  Really could use it a bit more west and south. Not sure we will get that.

[Vol4Life]

1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said:

Yes it has. ETN is just on the fringe.  Really could use it a bit more west and south. Not sure we will get that.

It wouldn’t take much of a shift to get ETN truly in the game.

[Vol4Life]

This was copied from southeastern forum that shows the trend.

[tnweathernut]

Let’s get Holston to put together one of those trend gif’s at 500 on the euro.  You can definitely see it trending further west and deeper……. But looking at 500 there’s only so much room to go even further west 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Remember, as a weather weenie, the most important thing you can do is to not talk to people about this at all, or as little as possible. 

"But they know I'm love weather," you might say! If they ask, you don't have to lie, you can look grumpy and say "Well, you saw what happened with the last one, didn't you??"

Yes, I know how that makes me sound and yes I am that superstitious about snow. 

 

There is some method to this. East TN is a hard place to forecast for and as we saw, you do not want to be in the bullseye 4-5 days out. Using the Holston deflection method, it is acceptable to say to loved ones and friends when they ask "Is is going to snow?"   "Yeah........... in North Carolina and Virginia." 

 

And to make this less weird, here are some gifs:

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I was typing all that mess out when tnweathernut responded, so I will get that gif too: 

500 mb trend N. America

 

Run to run changes:

[fountainguy97]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Remember, as a weather weenie, the most important thing you can do is to not talk to people about this at all, or as little as possible. 

"But they know I'm love weather," you might say! If they ask, you don't have to lie, you can look grumpy and say "Well, you saw what happened with the last one, didn't you??"

Yes, I know how that makes me sound and yes I am that superstitious about snow. 

 

There is some method to this. East TN is a hard place to forecast for and as we saw, you do not want to be in the bullseye 4-5 days out. Using the Holston deflection method, it is acceptable to say to loved ones and friends when they ask "Is is going to snow?"   "Yeah........... in North Carolina and Virginia." 

 

And to make this less weird, here are some gifs:

 

 

 

 

 

That second push into ETN at end of run was going to be laying it down heavy. 
 

We are at the timeframe where the last storm "jumped."  So to see this one jump from out to sea to an actual threat gives some legitimacy to our chances. The Google model was killer. We need to follow it. It's still suppressed somewhat.
 

I got burned telling some friends about the last one. This one my mouth is SHUT lol. 

[Vol4Life]

@Holston_River_Rambler speaking to @fountainguy97point, do you think this has a little room to come further west/NW?

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said:

That second push into ETN at end of run was going to be laying it down heavy. 
 

We are at the timeframe where the last storm "jumped."  So to see this one jump from out to sea to an actual threat gives some legitimacy to our chances. The Google model was killer. We need to follow it haha.
 

I got burned telling some friends about the last one. This one my mouth is SHUT lol. 

I mentioned ahead of time to watch the period from the 22 to the end of the month, but only mentioned it as a period to watch…. I stayed skeptical of a big snow to my friends when the GEM threw us the warning shot of not only WAA, but massive WAA into east TN 4-5 days out.

[Chattownsnow]

We are basically at the mercy of how far that little vort over the Hudson Bay slingshots west and then winds up as it comes south. I used the 0z euro but as of making this the 6Z euro came out on TT but the point remains the same. You can see a piece of energy following this energy around the backside that I think is tugging this west. It’s there on the GFS also but less defined and dives in later, thus more east
I tried to upload the GIF but I guess the file is too big and you can see what I’m looking at in action


.

[fountainguy97]

5 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:

We are basically at the mercy of how far that little vort over the Hudson Bay slingshots west and then winds up as it comes south. I used the 0z euro but as of making this the 6Z euro came out on TT but the point remains the same. You can see a piece of energy following this energy around the backside that I think is tugging this west. It’s there on the GFS also but less defined and dives in later, thus more east
I tried to upload the GIF but I guess the file is too big and you can see what I’m looking at in action


.

Honestly we need some ticks for a deeper dive.  Euro already is ticking north. Sure the west trend is good but a north trend is not. 

[Chattownsnow]

Honestly we need some ticks for a deeper dive.  Euro already is ticking north. Sure the west trend is good but a north trend is not. 

Yeah I’m not sure how far this thing will be able to dive south l. It’s already way down there as it is


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

20 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

@Holston_River_Rambler speaking to @fountainguy97point, do you think this has a little room to come further west/NW?

What the Euro is spitting out is extremely anomalous. I don't think I've seen a cutoff with this wrapped up at our latitude since I've been watching weather...let's say...enthusiastically enough to participate.

Some observations though:

Only 30+ hours later the situation has chnanged a lot:

 

what is now essentially a TPV vort says: "TPV eat shortwaves!!! YUM!!!!!"

 

But look at this, hour 126:

 

That's so wild I'm not really sure what options are on the table. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

5 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:

Yeah I’m not sure how far this thing will be able to dive south l. It’s already way down there as it is

This is the worry. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

10 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Honestly we need some ticks for a deeper dive.  Euro already is ticking north. Sure the west trend is good but a north trend is not. 

Yep, I agree with you and Chattownsnow. Can something this wound up actually get this far south? 

[Vol4Life]

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

What the Euro is spitting out is extremely anomalous. I don't think I've seen a cutoff with this wrapped up at our latitude since I've been watching weather...let's say...enthusiastically enough to participate.

Some observations though:

Only 30+ hours later the situation has chnanged a lot:

 

what is now essentially a TPV vort says: "TPV eat shortwaves!!! YUM!!!!!"

 

But look at this, hour 126:

 

That's so wild I'm not really sure what options are on the table. 

Thank you for the great explanation!  It will be interesting to watch over the next couple of days.

[tnweathernut]

It would be nice if out of 10 ways to snow there weren’t 9 ways to be hosed, but we live in TN so we almost always go to bat with a 10% chance to thread a needle.  New England is the place where 9 of 10 ways can snow and there’s only 1 way to be hosed.  

[tnweathernut]

Hoping a northern stream vort makes it far enough south and then blows up in the perfect spot to grab Atlantic moisture and throw it all the way back into the southern apps seems like much less than a 10% chance……. lol

[Vol4Life]

2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Hoping a northern stream vort makes it far enough south and then blows up in the perfect spot to grab Atlantic moisture and throw it all the way back into the southern apps seems like much less than a 10% chance……. lol

Maybe it happens.  We have seen many times where seemingly “perfect setups” go haywire.  Hopefully this setup of “so you’re telling me there’s a chance” verifies.