January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

NE TN and SWVA might just get a couple of  hours of radiational cooling this PM. 

[Carvers Gap]

34 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

Sugar highs are nice, but as has been the story all winter, the can always gets kicked 2 weeks down the road. But don't get me wrong, once it's inside 3 days, I'll be smiling at the Hot sign!

The current 500 pattern did not get can kicked.  It arrived on Jan 12th as we noted for at least a couple of weeks prior that it would.  I don't think anyone is on a sugar high...The upcoming weekend event was never real as there was a blatant error on GFS modeling where it connected w/ an eastern Pac storm.  However, they still had to send hurricane hunters out to make sure. But folks are allowed to get excited.  We only live once.  And can-kicking is just part of it in the Upper South.

edit:  The biggest adversity we are facing is drought.  

[Jed33]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

NE TN and SWVA might just get a couple of  hours of radiation a cooling this PM. 

Look at how low the dew points are too. That has to be good for at least onset sleet until the dewpoint rises above freezing. I don’t know I’m grasping at straws here but seen that happen many times. 

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

NE TN and SWVA might just get a couple of  hours of radiation a cooling this PM. 

My skies are clear for sure.  It hasn't been warm today at all.  When I went running this morning, it was 12 degrees I think...one of the top 5 coldest running mornings(this winter) for me.  Yesterday was by far the worst.  I made the mistake of running down on the river(you know where it is...NI).  

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

Look at how low the dew points are too. That has to be good for at least onset sleet until the dewpoint rises above freezing. I don’t know I’m grasping at straws here but seen that happen many times. 

The HRRR and 18z 3k NAM are all snow for NE TN, albeit very light amounts.  The 18z RGEM is rain.  When is onset for this?

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, midwoodian said:

Is it pretty much confirmed no snow in southern ETN (Knox down to Signal Mtn) tomorrow or are the models still to variable for any confidence?


.

There could always be surprises, but precip amounts are very light...and has been on modeling for several days in E TN.   I have zero knowledge of Signal Mountain w/ these types of setups.  I looks to me that south of I40, this is rain...but at elevation I just don't know.  The MRX graphic looks about right to me.

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The HRRR and 18z 3k NAM are all snow for NE TN, albeit very light amounts.  The 18z RGEM is rain.  When is onset for this?

6 to 7z - or 1-2 AM EST for northeast TN, from the looks of it.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

I don’t know I’m grasping at straws here but seen that happen many times. 

That’s where we’re at with tonight lol. HRRR, NAMs, ol RUFUS, and RAP still maintain snow above 2500 feet and for TRI and points NE. @Jed33sadly both you and I are borderline. 
 

@Carvers Gap looks like around midnight for me and after 3 am for yall. Look up close at the HRRR 3km on weatherbell. It looks like it has the Eastman bubble over Long Island lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

6 to 7z - or 1-2 AM EST for northeast TN, from the looks of it.

Well, that adds a layer of small bit interest for me.  When is the best lift if there is "best lift?"

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Well, that adds a layer of small bit interest for me.  When is the best lift if there is "best lift?"

Honestly timing looks ideal for TRI. 5-8am? 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

That’s where we’re at with tonight lol. HRRR, NAMs, ol RUFUS, and RAP still maintain snow above 2500 feet and for TRI and points NE. @Jed33sadly both you and I are borderline. 
 

@Carvers Gap looks like around midnight for me and after 3 am for yall. Look up close at the HRRR 3km on weatherbell. It looks like it has the Eastman bubble over Long Island lol. 

Got the EB mega heat island on the north end of LI and the D--tar smell from **** on the south end.  I have been thankful for winter westerlies!  KPT folks have extra wx "hurdles" for sure.  Plus, the S Holston(KPT) is the lowest elevation in TRI I believe.  I also think tailwaters (50s year round) are somewhat of an insulator to really cold or really warm temps.

[Carvers Gap]

Illustrative of what we have been talking about w/ the GL low....take a look at the 18z GFS.  The high scoots out quicker on the 22nd.  A weak slp slides in over the top, and thermals get mixed.  Also, as I noted earlier....we really want that slider a bit south of us as most of those features have trended a bit warmer and further north one time - all of that normal.  However, I wouldn't be surprised for this to trend colder at some point.  As is on the 18z GFS...ice setup.

[Carvers Gap]

The second system on the 18z GFS should be good as it has a big high over the top.

[Carvers Gap]

What we are looking for is an STJ wave to have a trailing hp or one over the top.  It looks like the GFS held back cold on this run, and it will dump SE w/ the second system.

[Matthew70]

34 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The current 500 pattern did not get can kicked.  It arrived on Jan 12th as we noted for at least a couple of weeks prior that it would.  I don't think anyone is on a sugar high...The upcoming weekend event was never real as there was a blatant error on GFS modeling where it connected w/ an eastern Pac storm.  However, they still had to send hurricane hunters out to make sure. But folks are allowed to get excited.  We only live once.  And can-kicking is just part of it in the Upper South.

edit:  The biggest adversity we are facing is drought.  

I’m with you.  I’d rather be excited or hopeful than to always be down.  

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I’m with you.  I’d rather be excited or hopeful than to always be down.  

And I get that it is frustrating for some.  My pet peeve is tracking a potential pattern change, and it turns into a seasonal frontal passage.  Haha.  I just don't see this as a "can kick". Jan 1-10 was a can kick.  This weekend's system was a pretty bad model error in terms of synoptics.  I do think the GFS has a tendency to (erroneously)really, really amplify features on the map at times between the d 7-15 times.  I don't understand it.  It wasn't like that last winter that I can recall - maybe I need to go back and check.  Right now, we are fighting widespread drouth over the SE.  Trying to get a moisture conveyor belt going over drought areas is like pulling teeth.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS is definitely running w/ the over-running idea.  Unsurprisingly it has trended slightly north, BUT...this looks like the winters of the past decade where the cold stalls either at the Plateau or Apps.  I bet if you dig back through my winter forecast in June, you will see this scenario mentioned.

[Carvers Gap]

Halftime.  I posted this on June 8th in the winter spec thread...I still think many areas end up w/ normal snowfall FWIW.....my eastern valley AN snowfall looks in jeopardy for sure.  Snow is ALWAYS a crapshoot.  Some good takes and some HOT takes!!!!

I will work on some analogs packages.  This is tricky this year as we were more La Nina last winter, trended back to neutral, and may trend weakly negative again.  For now and subject to change...

Temps...

Dec: BN

Jan: N

Feb: AN

Precip...

All months normal to slightly BN IMHO...but w/ a chance for slightly AN if you like the CANSIPS.

Snow...

AN eastern valley w/ an early start

normal everywhere else w/ snow a bit later in middle and west

(but honestly might be similar to what you got this winter)

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS is just one big over-running event.  Can the cold get here in the amounts we need? Can the STJ show up as modeled?  

[Matthew70]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GFS is just one big over-running event.  Can the cold get here in the amounts we need? Can the STJ show up as modeled?  

Hopefully the euro AI, says here is your cold.  It’s been pretty close to being dead on. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Hopefully the euro AI, says here is your cold.  It’s been pretty close to being dead on. 

The 18z GFS is on winter storm #3 at 288.  

[Conway7305]

 

Cards may be falling into place late Jan/Early Feb. STJ starts to get active.  

+PNA  -EPO  -AO  hopefully -NAO, MJO moving into phase 8. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

hot dawg, the 18z Euro still has it 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One of those recon flights for today is scoping out the Gulf 

[tnweathernut]

16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

hot dawg, the 18z Euro still has it 

12-1PM and a nearly all snow profile…….  Looks good to me.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

This system tonight is hauling booty. I'm guessing I have two hours before precip. starts now. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

If we account for elevation of OHX, looks like freezing level is probably around 2500ish feet? Not really sure how to precisely use teh tool below though. 

[*Flash*]

14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

This system tonight is hauling booty. I'm guessing I have two hours before precip. starts now. 

 

[Weatheriscool]

22 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

If we account for elevation of OHX, looks like freezing level is probably around 2500ish feet? Not really sure how to precisely use teh tool below though. 

Just have rain here, it's about 40