January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

21 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

So basically, what I hear @Carvers Gap saying..............is we need to start researching how to cloud seed in our area.  lol

I feel confident that we have the equipment already in place in Kingsport which can seed clouds.  Those little ground based, propane powered silver iodide dispersers...ain't got nothin' on the thermal ability of the Model City.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

RGEM very westerly.

This is what I was suggesting to @Daniel Boone.  With the coastal idea kind of exiting...I wonder if the end result is a more enhanced cold front w/ some small waves riding it?  RGEM sure looked that way....And that makes sense given the strength o the cold front.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Apparently the Sunday system is getting *checks notes* a recon flight now.

 

Are they trying to get a better picture of the Atlantic ridging? Or are they flying to sample the vort?? 

[John1122]

I guess they are wondering why there's so much difference in American vs foreign modeling and can't figure anything else out to do. 

[Carvers Gap]

It is obvious there are huge problems with wx models right now.  Anyone know which run that will affect once the data is collected?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

It is obvious there are huge problems with wx models right now.  Anyone know which run that will affect once the data is collected?

Looks like they are running two, one tomorrow afternoon / evening (16 20:30 -17 0230z) and one early morning of Saturday (17 830 - . 1430z).

 

But I have no idea if I'm reading that flight plan correctly and can't tell whether they're flying out over the Atlantic or up toward where the vort. is, or both. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Tropical tidbits has 2 over the Pac right now. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just to be clear I think these two recon flights are different from the previous ones. 

[*Flash*]

Bobby Boyd has been previewing a freezing rain/ice signal for BNA the past 24 hours. Granted, it's 10 days out; however, it makes sense there could be mischief around this time. 

[Matthew70]

7 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Bobby Boyd is touting a freezing rain/ice signal for BNA. Granted, it's 10 days out; however, it makes sense there could be mischief around this time. 

I like Boyd, he keeps us updated a lot.  It’s interesting to read his posts.  They change a lot which is what models do these days.  Sometimes I wonder if the GFS is that broken.  Only time it seems to be right is in the summer months.  It says hot & dry!  lol. 

[Scottie16]

Something of note*

Most of the forum is well under forecasted lows tonight. It continues to drop imby (17•)


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[Matthew70]

2 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Something of note*

Most of the forum is well under forecasted lows tonight. It continues to drop imby (17•)


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I will say it’s downright cold.  Today never got above freezing.  21 here now.  18 is projected low.  

[Jed33]

Yes, I was noticing that. It’s already 19 here. Forecast low is 15. Thinking could be between 10-15 here

[Matthew70]

Well call me whatever but if what has been showing on the models.  End of the month could possibly bring some fun. 

[John1122]

I don't understand the NAM just pasting northern Middle and S Kentucky, then a hole just develops over me and @Kentucky. Someone in another forum mentioned that the precip holes were a known NAM mistake.  I hope that's correct. Of course the NAM is on an island anyway with the system so who knows what will happen. 

[Daniel Boone]

Reached an afternoon High of 24 here. Had there been Snow Cover it would of stayed in the Teens. Currently 15.

[Greyhound]

Bobby Boyd has been previewing a freezing rain/ice signal for BNA the past 24 hours. Granted, it's 10 days out; however, it makes sense there could be mischief around this time. 

Of course…….I’m supposed to travel to Nashville next weekend.


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[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I don't understand the NAM just pasting northern Middle and S Kentucky, then a hole just develops over me and @Kentucky. Someone in another forum mentioned that the precip holes were a known NAM mistake.  I hope that's correct. Of course the NAM is on an island anyway with the system so who knows what will happen. 

Yeah, noticed that. It just scattered the Shield out after getting past I-75. Could be suggesting a mild tounge of sorts with maybe a mix or some rain . I didn't look at QPF . It would answer to whether that's the Case.

  A couple other Models are showing the quick drop off as well. 

    

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, noticed that. It just scattered the Shield out after getting past I-75. Could be suggesting a mild tounge of sorts with maybe a mix or some rain . I didn't look at QPF . It would answer to whether that's the Case.

  A couple other Models are showing the quick drop off as well. 

    

It's a QPF issue. It goes from dumping over northern Middle to dying imby, but it bumps back up a little bit east of 75 and down towards Knoxville. 

[WintryMixmaster]

The NAM 3k sure is persistent showing that 1-2" for I-40 north in the valley Friday night. Reminds me of that scene with Fry and the fortune teller from Futurama: "look do you want false hope or not?" "only if you don't have any real hope!"

[John1122]

Several of the NAM Nest members are also bullish for heavier snow in Tennessee. It's either going to suddenly abandon ship tomorrow, score a wild coup, or go down in flames. 

[WintryMixmaster]

9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Several of the NAM Nest members are also bullish for heavier snow in Tennessee. It's either going to suddenly abandon ship tomorrow, score a wild coup, or go down in flames. 

It looks like the WRF-NSSL has a similar solution to the NAM, WRF-ARW missed Knox but gets some light accumulating snow into NE TN. And then the WRF-FV3 says nope, rain for basically everyone. It would take some of the string out of having snow likely miss to our south Sunday if some part of our area can get accumulating snow on Friday night, at least maybe the Plateau or northeast valley

[Matthew70]

18 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Several of the NAM Nest members are also bullish for heavier snow in Tennessee. It's either going to suddenly abandon ship tomorrow, score a wild coup, or go down in flames. 

I plead the 5th as to what will happen with the NAM.

[WintryMixmaster]

1 hour ago, Scottie16 said:

Something of note*

Most of the forum is well under forecasted lows tonight. It continues to drop imby (17•)


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I noticed that too. It's 20 degrees at my house and even colder in some other areas nearby, the colder models for Friday night are much closer to the current observed temperatures in the area (NAM, WRF-NSSL, WRF,ARW) compared to the rainier ones (WRF-FV3, RRFS, HRRR), which have Knoxville above 24 degrees at 10-11 PM. I might be grasping at straws but like I said, I'll take any and all false or real hope I can find haha

[John1122]

The 18z Euro Ai was a gem. It's usually steady once it locks onto something. Hopefully it stays locked onto that type of evolution. 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The 18z Euro Ai was a gem. It's usually steady once it locks onto something. Hopefully it stays locked onto that type of evolution. 

I read that 5 days in it has very high grades.