January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

21 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

So basically, what I hear @Carvers Gap saying..............is we need to start researching how to cloud seed in our area.  lol

I feel confident that we have the equipment already in place in Kingsport which can seed clouds.  Those little ground based, propane powered silver iodide dispersers...ain't got nothin' on the thermal ability of the Model City.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

RGEM very westerly.

This is what I was suggesting to @Daniel Boone.  With the coastal idea kind of exiting...I wonder if the end result is a more enhanced cold front w/ some small waves riding it?  RGEM sure looked that way....And that makes sense given the strength o the cold front.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Apparently the Sunday system is getting *checks notes* a recon flight now.

 

Are they trying to get a better picture of the Atlantic ridging? Or are they flying to sample the vort?? 

[John1122]

I guess they are wondering why there's so much difference in American vs foreign modeling and can't figure anything else out to do. 

[Carvers Gap]

It is obvious there are huge problems with wx models right now.  Anyone know which run that will affect once the data is collected?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

It is obvious there are huge problems with wx models right now.  Anyone know which run that will affect once the data is collected?

Looks like they are running two, one tomorrow afternoon / evening (16 20:30 -17 0230z) and one early morning of Saturday (17 830 - . 1430z).

 

But I have no idea if I'm reading that flight plan correctly and can't tell whether they're flying out over the Atlantic or up toward where the vort. is, or both. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Tropical tidbits has 2 over the Pac right now. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just to be clear I think these two recon flights are different from the previous ones. 

[*Flash*]

Bobby Boyd has been previewing a freezing rain/ice signal for BNA the past 24 hours. Granted, it's 10 days out; however, it makes sense there could be mischief around this time. 

[Matthew70]

7 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Bobby Boyd is touting a freezing rain/ice signal for BNA. Granted, it's 10 days out; however, it makes sense there could be mischief around this time. 

I like Boyd, he keeps us updated a lot.  It’s interesting to read his posts.  They change a lot which is what models do these days.  Sometimes I wonder if the GFS is that broken.  Only time it seems to be right is in the summer months.  It says hot & dry!  lol. 

[Scottie16]

Something of note*

Most of the forum is well under forecasted lows tonight. It continues to drop imby (17•)


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[Matthew70]

2 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Something of note*

Most of the forum is well under forecasted lows tonight. It continues to drop imby (17•)


.

I will say it’s downright cold.  Today never got above freezing.  21 here now.  18 is projected low.  

[Jed33]

Yes, I was noticing that. It’s already 19 here. Forecast low is 15. Thinking could be between 10-15 here

[Matthew70]

Well call me whatever but if what has been showing on the models.  End of the month could possibly bring some fun. 

[John1122]

I don't understand the NAM just pasting northern Middle and S Kentucky, then a hole just develops over me and @Kentucky. Someone in another forum mentioned that the precip holes were a known NAM mistake.  I hope that's correct. Of course the NAM is on an island anyway with the system so who knows what will happen. 

[Daniel Boone]

Reached an afternoon High of 24 here. Had there been Snow Cover it would if stayed in the Teens. Currently 15.