January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[*Flash*]

3 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

3K NAM appears to be headed towards a rain but timing works out and trys to salvage something.  here's what it shows at 00z 

Yeah, I’m rooting for this in hope to maybe chase on the plateau.

[Daniel Boone]

14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

0z RGem is a rainer under probably 1800/2000ft.

Can't win for losing in Tn Valley. This one will nail Kentucky pretty good while the next will go South and East of us. 

[John1122]

The Rufus now has the Sunday system hitting East Tennessee. 

[Matthew70]

Well at least next week is looking wet.  Cold 45-50’s  rains incoming.  Hopefully the colder air can make it here.  Hopefully it’s not suppressing cold.  We wait & see if moves up in time. 

[Daniel Boone]

GFS showing similar to NAM 3k Friday Night/Sat Morning. 2-3" here by 12z Sat.

[Reb]

GFS vort still trending deeper west. Might be a good run

 

[Reb]

And for the surface 

[Scottie16]

That GFS run!


.

[*Flash*]

Good trends. Still rooting for more of a western adjustment. Should have a grasp of my travel plans within the next 24-36 hours. What a day of runs!

[Daniel Boone]

11 minutes ago, Reb said:

And for the surface 

Looks like a quick 1-3" in NETN that Run before quickly reforming or shifting to in north cental NC up through Central and Eastern VA. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, *Flash* said:

Good trends. Still rooting for more of a western adjustment. Should have a grasp of my travel plans within the next 24-36 hours. What a day of runs!

Yeah. Would be nice if that weak Low it pops in the NE Gulf develops further West and intensifies so it would run more Northward.

[John1122]

I don't actually believe the GFS here because it's the GFS. It digs the S/W further south and west and pumps the ridge a bit off the east coast, thus the more NW track. 

[John1122]

Canadian, while nothing for us, went from off the coast to precip well west into NC from 12z to 0z. 

[TellicoWx]

9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I don't actually believe the GFS here because it's the GFS. It digs the S/W further south and west and pumps the ridge a bit off the east coast, thus the more NW track. 

While I would love for the GFS Op to score the win..hard to believe anything it's spitting out when it's all alone vs all other models (even it's own AI)

[John1122]

The UKIE, which has been the furthest east, was probably 150-200 miles west vs 12z. 

[John1122]

SREF at 03z is nw and gives most of the area from the western Plateau eastward .10 or more precip from 63-87.

[fountainguy97]

Big tick NW on GEFS. I don't see anything that would really keep this super suppressed. GFS is not backing down yet.
 

[fountainguy97]

NAM is about to be an absolute behemoth.

[fountainguy97]

Phew.

[John1122]

One or two more NW shifts would be nice. Webb keeps saying the Euro is out to lunch being so suppressed with really nothing in the Atlantic to keep it suppressed.

[John1122]

The Rufus shifted probably 90ish miles w with the precip field vs 0z. It was mostly hugging the counties that border NC, now the precip shield is to the Plateau.

[John1122]

The ICON has went from barely scraping far Eastern NC at 18z yesterday, to snow almost back to Charlotte at 06z.

[John1122]

The Rufus was a big hitter along the 81 corridor and decent down to Knoxville.

[nrgjeff]

I'll take Spann 100X there.

18 hours ago, *Flash* said:

SouthernWx is taking James Spann to town over his Euro-AI post on social media last hour. 

Though I feel like that AI version was too beefy for Tenn. Spann has been amazing through the past week.

Anyway this late weekend event looks like it'll satisfy some Southeast weenies. We'll see what the initial waves bring for Tenn. Probably the usual Upper Plateau, Mountains and a few spots north of I-40 east of the Plateau. '

Chattanooga can pretty much forget about it! Maybe some flurries but nothing will stick in town.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Southernwx was talking some comparisons between this Sunday and Dec 2017, anyone else see that? The radar looks reasonable:

 

 

The system looks to have dug SW a bit more though:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2017 probably a bit bigger and longer duration, but I see some similarities

[nrgjeff]

Wow we got model tracks anywhere from buried near the Gulf Coast and marginal temps, to almost up to Chattanooga and plenty cold enough. 06Z RRFS has a couple inches at KCHA - a 60% hatched risk for major disappointment. 

Truth may be somewhere in between. I'd be happy for those in central GA central SC, and the NC Piedmont. Maybe their groaning would subside for a couple weeks, lol!

[*Flash*]

Still too much model variance to be confident in any solution. Hopefully, that changes in 12-24 hours. December 2017 might have track comps but wasn't that storm more amped? That low was stronger if I recall.

[*Flash*]

13 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Wow we got model tracks anywhere from buried near the Gulf Coast and marginal temps, to almost up to Chattanooga and plenty cold enough. 06Z RRFS has a couple inches at KCHA - a 60% hatched risk for major disappointment. 

Truth may be somewhere in between. I'd be happy for those in central GA central SC, and the NC Piedmont. Maybe their groaning would subside for a couple weeks, lol!

It's been a groan fest for most of the decade east of the apps. TN Valley has been way more fortunate the past 5 years. 

[brewman22001]

Still too much model variance to be confident in any solution. December 2017 might have track comps but wasn't that storm more amped? That low was stronger if I recall.

It’s definitely starting to grab my interest again!!


.