January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

What a run of the 12z Euro just speaking from a 500 pattern perspective.  If snow is on the ground, this is how record lows are broken.  

Below is a textbook, high latitude blocking pattern.  As long as that cold air pool is sitting and spinning over Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec....that trough will have a hard time being anywhere but the eastern half of North America.  The trough will try to go west from Jan 22-24, but it "appears" there is a very strong Arctic air mass poised to descend well below the 49th parallel.  

IF THIS IS REAL, many boxes are check for a pattern which would support a winter storm(s) over eastern North America.  Trough east of Hawaii, phase 8 MJO, EPO ridge, block over Alaska, -AO, -NAO,  and western Europe trough.  IF REAL, I would expect there would be a potential storm run an impressive temperature and pressure gradient between cold and warm air masses.  That gradient would stretch southwest to northwest.  That potential storm could could be a cutter, or over-running event(probable), or EC storm.  But when you draw up a pattern for winter weather....this is it.

I do NOT know if this will verify, but this look is present across modeling right now in some iteration or another.

I pulled the apparent temperature map as this rolls through at 306.  And you all know the rules at this range, especially when looking at detailed maps at range.  But this is just wild and worth a share IMHO.  Those real feel temps.  One end of the state is 27 degrees AN, and the other end is 20 degrees BN.  That would be an all timer in regards to cold fronts.  

[Carvers Gap]

This is a 10-day(!) map.  This isn't just the d10-15 map.  This is d5-15 map.  I am not guaranteeing this verifies.  But if I showed you this during August, and said that temps are going to be BN during our coldest climatology w/ blocking over the top and out West...would you have taken this map?  You bet!!!  The risk is that this pattern is dry.  For many of our good snows, we need cold in place and good source regions.

[Carvers Gap]

And I haven't even talked about the weekend and the 12z Euro run.  Nothing huge, but lots of bands of light snow rotating through on the 17th, 19th, and possibly the 21st.  Snow flurries could reach all the way to the Panhandle of Florida.

That WWA for the mountains (which was shared earlier) could easily be a blizzard warning above 5000'.  40mph winds w/ accumulations of 6" and that is for Jan 13th.  Ski slopes may score big during the next two weeks.

Lots of windows to track right now...

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS 10d 500 map from d 3.75-13.75.  I didn't run it to d15 as the run isn't over.  The 12z GEFS is almost identical.  The 12z GEPS doesn't have a 7d map...but kick the base of the western ridge slightly eastward....but still cold.  

[tnweathernut]

@Carvers Gap the maps look really good.  Just need a well timed system to drop from Wyoming to Louisiana.  I don't have access to individuals.  Is the Euro throwing anything showing this type potential or are they mostly showing a gradient pattern in the LR? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

HRRR has the Bays Mt band on it, I think...

[kvskelton]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Thank you all. When you get older things you shrugged off as a young man really hit hard. 

Amen, brother. Hope you get well soon, John. 

[Carvers Gap]

44 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

@Carvers Gap the maps look really good.  Just need a well timed system to drop from Wyoming to Louisiana.  I don't have access to individuals.  Is the Euro throwing anything showing this type potential or are they mostly showing a gradient pattern in the LR? 

Yeah, so that flattens out from time to time.  I doubt modeling has the details correct.  Could be a brief warm-up and rain or could be even as severe as over-running.  I am interested to see how the models react to the phase 8 and HL blocking combo.  That could get severely cold, but I have been burned at this range too many times to count.  But yes, the trajectory(for now) favors either a cutter or over-running or both!

[Carvers Gap]

May be something but probably not a big deal in regards to map features.  I am seeing a little lee side low pop for the 15th.  Time of day is the deal killer, but interesting nonetheless.

 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

And who knows if it is correct, but the 12z GFS does have some support from both ensembles and other deterministic runs...the 12z GFS does amplify the pattern after the 25th w/ very cold air getting trapped over NA...just look at the 500 heights.  The 0z Euro just about went to the extreme.  Big story for 240+(proceed at your own risk...) is the movement of very cold air into NA.  Can it get to our latitude?  I think it has a chance.

Feel better, @John1122! Hopefully @Daniel Booneis on the mend.  I haven't seen him post as much recently.

 

Thanks Buddy . I'm still not up to par. Energy just doesn't want to come back. Has me rather down physically and mentally. Hopefully I'll get lined out and start participating more. Good discussions going on. Hopefully we reel in a couple big dogs before long. At least it looks almost guaranteed of several light events at the very least. That's a plus nowadays. Snow on snow. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM para is again the model which I "think" simulates the next ten days in a sensible fashion.  As Boone noted, lots of light events are embedded.  Systems don't look overly amped, but looks sensible in terms of its QPF and track given cold air in place.  This is what "should" be occurring at the base of a highly amplified trough.  Beginning the 17th, there are several small events which rotate through.  

[tnweathernut]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

May be something but probably not a big deal in regards to map features.  I am seeing a little lee side low pop for the 15th.  Time of day is the deal killer, but interesting nonetheless.

 

 

At least it's coming after dark.........  silver lining i suppose.  lol

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

At least it's coming after dark.........  silver lining i suppose.  lol

Here are the full run ensemble clown map members...

 

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

At least it's coming after dark.........  silver lining i suppose.  lol

The 12z GEFS and GEPS(and prior runs) have roughly 6" of snow for their NE TN ensemble means.  Usually, that is a good sign.  No idea if those numbers will verify, but I am optimistic that we see some winter weather over the next couple of weeks.

[Carvers Gap]

Special Wx Statement from MRX...

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
154 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-046-069>071-073-VAZ001-005-008-140900-
Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan-
Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
Washington TN-Northwest Carter-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
North Sevier-Lee-Scott VA-Washington VA-
Including the cities of Big South Fork National, Oneida,
Smokey Junction, Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle,
La Follette, Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville,
Royal Blue, Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur,
Harrogate-Shawanee, Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston,
Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport,
Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Pine Orchard, High Point, Petros,
Oak Ridge, Clinton, Maynardville, Norris Lake, Paulette,
Rose Hill, Sharps Chapel, Luttrell, Bean Station, Alpha,
Morristown, Russellville, Bybee, Newport, Greeneville,
Johnson City, Elizabethton, Bearden, Knoxville, Lake Forest,
Jefferson City, Strawberry Plains, Chestnut Hill, Dandridge,
White Pine, Happy Valley, Maryville, Alcoa, Harrisburg, Kodak,
McMahan, Sevierville, Seymour, Pigeon Forge, Hiltons, Benhams,
Bristol VA, and Abingdon
154 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...Rain Changing to Snow Late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening...

A cold front will move across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia,
and southwest North Carolina late Wednesday afternoon and evening
bring with it widespread precipitation and colder temperatures. A
band of rain will move into the region then mix with and change
over to snow by early evening.

A brief period of accumulating snow is possible across the
Plateau, southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee, and central
valley. Snowfall of 1/2 inch is possible mainly on grassy and
elevated surfaces, and up to 1 inch across the higher ridges.

Snow covered roadways are possible across the higher terrain
Wednesday evening. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other
local media for further details or updates.

$$

[Carvers Gap]

MRX disco from this afternoon...

National Weather Service Morristown TN
1240 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Significant Accumulating snow is likely across the higher elevations,
  with lighter accumulations (dusting to 1/2 inch) for the
  Plateau and valley from late Wednesday afternoon/evening through
  Thursday morning.

- Additional snow showers will be possible this weekend,
  especially over the higher elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The main concern for the next several days is the potential for
snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. Thus the discussion will largely
focus on the potential of snow during that time-frame.

For Tonight, surface ridging will give way to increasing bounday
layer southwest winds. Sky will be mostly clear in the evening with
increasing clouds toward sunrise. Overall, another good radiational
cooling night and have lowered mins below NBM guidance.

For Wednesday through Thursday, a deepening upper trough across the
eastern United States will produce widespread precipitation. For
Wednesday, a strong 300mb jet of 120-130 knots over the eastern Ohio
valley will place the area under the favored right entrance region.
This jet structure will enhance a frontal boundary moving across the
area during the afternoon and evening. Strong fronto-genetic forcing
is noted around 00Z tightening the thermal gradient along this
boundary.

Initially widespread rain band will spread across the region
associated with the baroclinic band. Vertical temperature profile
quickly cools off due to the forcing with the snow level dropping
quickly. The higher elevations will see snow by 3 to 4 pm, then snow
levels dropping. The dendritic growth zone will be favorable around
00Z then moisture levels become more shallow. REFS shows 60-70
percent probabilities of 4 inch or more across the highest
elevations but most of the higher terrain will see 2 to 4 inches
across the far east Tennessee mountains with 1 to 3 inches across
southwest Virginia mountains.

We have issued a winter weather advisory for these areas from 3 pm
Wednesday through 11 am Thursday.

REFS does show 30 to 50 probabilities of dusting to 1/2 inch
(possibly 1 inch higher ridges) across the Plateau and lower
elevations of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Plan on
issuing a SPS to message this possibility.

Due to orographic lift and cold air squeezing out left over moisture
have continued chance of shower showers (high elevations) and
flurries for the lower terrain through much of Thursday morning.

For Thursday night and Friday, upper trough has moved east of the
area with another system moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio
valley. The forcing with this system looks to stay north of the
area. Milder temperatures and dry conditions expected. with surface
ridging.

Another deep upper trough digs into the Ohio valley for Friday night
and Saturday. A series of short-waves will move across the region
producing occasional mixture of rain and snow. Ensemble clusters
show varying solutions with this system thus the confidence is low.

&&

[Kentucky]

MJO phase 7-8, January analogs

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I’m not disappointed in this winter at all so far.  Yes it sucks that we have not got any snow yet, but it’s been chilly to cold most of the winter so far.

Hot donuts sign is on.....

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies turned sharply colder this afternoon.  That makes sense given how cold the 0z run was(and 12z supported it).  The 30 day mean 500 pattern is a trough over the eastern US.  There will be a few warmups embedded as the trough tries to stick into the West, but the cold centered in the Canadian Plains and tundra is going to want to run this show - Nunavut, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec.   The BN 500 heights are going to almost force a trough in the East as long as its there.  The SER will surge NE at times, and then should get beaten back down.  The block over the top should continue to allow for the EPO to hold in place.  The Weeklies hold this pattern for nearly the entire 46day run(with variations and ebbs and flows) which likely is not accurate, but if it was.........cold period incoming.  Somewhere Larry Cosgrove has to be smiling - big tip of the hat if he pulls this off.

[Daniel Boone]

17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

MRX disco from this afternoon...

National Weather Service Morristown TN
1240 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Significant Accumulating snow is likely across the higher elevations,
  with lighter accumulations (dusting to 1/2 inch) for the
  Plateau and valley from late Wednesday afternoon/evening through
  Thursday morning.

- Additional snow showers will be possible this weekend,
  especially over the higher elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The main concern for the next several days is the potential for
snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. Thus the discussion will largely
focus on the potential of snow during that time-frame.

For Tonight, surface ridging will give way to increasing bounday
layer southwest winds. Sky will be mostly clear in the evening with
increasing clouds toward sunrise. Overall, another good radiational
cooling night and have lowered mins below NBM guidance.

For Wednesday through Thursday, a deepening upper trough across the
eastern United States will produce widespread precipitation. For
Wednesday, a strong 300mb jet of 120-130 knots over the eastern Ohio
valley will place the area under the favored right entrance region.
This jet structure will enhance a frontal boundary moving across the
area during the afternoon and evening. Strong fronto-genetic forcing
is noted around 00Z tightening the thermal gradient along this
boundary.

Initially widespread rain band will spread across the region
associated with the baroclinic band. Vertical temperature profile
quickly cools off due to the forcing with the snow level dropping
quickly. The higher elevations will see snow by 3 to 4 pm, then snow
levels dropping. The dendritic growth zone will be favorable around
00Z then moisture levels become more shallow. REFS shows 60-70
percent probabilities of 4 inch or more across the highest
elevations but most of the higher terrain will see 2 to 4 inches
across the far east Tennessee mountains with 1 to 3 inches across
southwest Virginia mountains.

We have issued a winter weather advisory for these areas from 3 pm
Wednesday through 11 am Thursday.

REFS does show 30 to 50 probabilities of dusting to 1/2 inch
(possibly 1 inch higher ridges) across the Plateau and lower
elevations of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Plan on
issuing a SPS to message this possibility.

Due to orographic lift and cold air squeezing out left over moisture
have continued chance of shower showers (high elevations) and
flurries for the lower terrain through much of Thursday morning.

For Thursday night and Friday, upper trough has moved east of the
area with another system moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio
valley. The forcing with this system looks to stay north of the
area. Milder temperatures and dry conditions expected. with surface
ridging.

Another deep upper trough digs into the Ohio valley for Friday night
and Saturday. A series of short-waves will move across the region
producing occasional mixture of rain and snow. Ensemble clusters
show varying solutions with this system thus the confidence is low.

&&

I think they're too low on Amounts for Plateau and upper Valley Locations. We got 1/4-1/2 inch Sunday and they were saying no accumulation. With the NWF Snshwrs after the synoptic shield leaves there should be scattered additional accs from those. That's not mentioned in their discussion. 

[Carvers Gap]

Euro Weeklies Control:  The overall Weeklies pattern is BN precip over the SE.  That isn't always a bad thing as snowy regions won't usually show up as AN for precip...but precip probably is going to be an issue at times.  Here is a fun little map.  This is a 30 day map from the control run of the Euro Weeklies.  Benchmark storm signal present on a 30 day map.  Please be sure to temper expectations....we know how modeling has been this winter - not exactly reliable.  But I do like the Euro a little bit in the middle of winter while wavelengths are longer(are they really longer right now?!).

If the STJ finds some juice???

 

[*Flash*]

17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Euro Weeklies Control:  The overall Weeklies pattern is BN precip over the SE.  That isn't always a bad thing as snowy regions won't usually show up as AN for precip...but precip probably is going to be an issue at times.  Here is a fun little map.  This is a 30 day map from the control run of the Euro Weeklies.  Benchmark storm signal present on a 30 day map.  Please be sure to temper expectations....we know how modeling has been this winter - not exactly reliable.  But I do like the Euro a little bit in the middle of winter while wavelengths are longer(are they really longer right now?!).

If the STJ finds some juice???

 

As long as it doesn't involve 'orange' juice (I.e. AN) on the temp-side, I'll take whatever the STJ can offer. CMC Ens #12 and #16 look pretty darn good. 

[Daniel Boone]

28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Euro Weeklies Control:  The overall Weeklies pattern is BN precip over the SE.  That isn't always a bad thing as snowy regions won't usually show up as AN for precip...but precip probably is going to be an issue at times.  Here is a fun little map.  This is a 30 day map from the control run of the Euro Weeklies.  Benchmark storm signal present on a 30 day map.  Please be sure to temper expectations....we know how modeling has been this winter - not exactly reliable.  But I do like the Euro a little bit in the middle of winter while wavelengths are longer(are they really longer right now?!).

If the STJ finds some juice???

 

The Nina is still going as evidenced by Satellite Imagry. That is still hampering the STJ. IF the Polar Jet can dive to the Gulf as weathernut alluded to earlier, then we wouldn't need the STJ as it should spawn Cyclogenesis. We could be working into the '95-96 Pattern if we start seeing that happen. Miller B to Miller A Transfer's. Hybrids.

Hopefully, the mean Trough becomes far enough west to support the disturbances diving down the Front Range and Plains to the Gulf. If blocking is strong and we make it to MJO P8 , with a weakening Nina this could become a probability imo.

[Carvers Gap]

Re: Weds…18z GFS w a lee side low again on this run.  Slight uptick in intensity for E TN folks and Plateau. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I pulled some soundings off the HRRR for the Bays Mt band. I may pull some more if it keeps showing it. I'm not good at reading soundings other than the bare minimum of hodographs and thermal/ moisture profiles/ DGZ, so I was wondering if there is any other info in these soundings that might add something to how we understand the band.

 

Just for comparison here is a sounding just SW in northern Greene county:

 

 

 

I'll be heading up to Kingsport Thursday AM, so hopefully I can do some more investigating. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z GFS trending to back the flow for Saturday night too:

[jaxjagman]

Models are in better agreement now with the MJO without the signal getting destroyed.

Long range at least right now with the MJO into the WP is ongoing and should have a decent signal into the WH into the 3rd wk of Jan

Next weekend right now looks severe,but this could be your typical strong  CF before it turns cold again in winter.Thats the way it looks to me right now where the signs are headed