January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

What a run of the 12z Euro just speaking from a 500 pattern perspective.  If snow is on the ground, this is how record lows are broken.  

Below is a textbook, high latitude blocking pattern.  As long as that cold air pool is sitting and spinning over Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec....that trough will have a hard time being anywhere but the eastern half of North America.  The trough will try to go west from Jan 22-24, but it "appears" there is a very strong Arctic air mass poised to descend well below the 49th parallel.  

IF THIS IS REAL, many boxes are check for a pattern which would support a winter storm(s) over eastern North America.  Trough east of Hawaii, phase 8 MJO, EPO ridge, block over Alaska, -AO, -NAO,  and western Europe trough.  IF REAL, I would expect there would be a potential storm run an impressive temperature and pressure gradient between cold and warm air masses.  That gradient would stretch southwest to northwest.  That potential storm could could be a cutter, or over-running event(probable), or EC storm.  But when you draw up a pattern for winter weather....this is it.

I do NOT know if this will verify, but this look is present across modeling right now in some iteration or another.

I pulled the apparent temperature map as this rolls through at 306.  And you all know the rules at this range, especially when looking at detailed maps at range.  But this is just wild and worth a share IMHO.  Those real feel temps.  One end of the state is 27 degrees AN, and the other end is 20 degrees BN.  That would be an all timer in regards to cold fronts.  

[Carvers Gap]

This is a 10-day(!) map.  This isn't just the d10-15 map.  This is d5-15 map.  I am not guaranteeing this verifies.  But if I showed you this during August, and said that temps are going to be BN during our coldest climatology w/ blocking over the top and out West...would you have taken this map?  You bet!!!  The risk is that this pattern is dry.  For many of our good snows, we need cold in place and good source regions.

[Carvers Gap]

And I haven't even talked about the weekend and the 12z Euro run.  Nothing huge, but lots of bands of light snow rotating through on the 17th, 19th, and possibly the 21st.  Snow flurries could reach all the way to the Panhandle of Florida.

That WWA for the mountains (which was shared earlier) could easily be a blizzard warning above 5000'.  40mph winds w/ accumulations of 6" and that is for Jan 13th.  Ski slopes may score big during the next two weeks.

Lots of windows to track right now...

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS 10d 500 map from d 3.75-13.75.  I didn't run it to d15 as the run isn't over.  The 12z GEFS is almost identical.  The 12z GEPS doesn't have a 7d map...but kick the base of the western ridge slightly eastward....but still cold.  

[tnweathernut]

@Carvers Gap the maps look really good.  Just need a well timed system to drop from Wyoming to Louisiana.  I don't have access to individuals.  Is the Euro throwing anything showing this type potential or are they mostly showing a gradient pattern in the LR? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

HRRR has the Bays Mt band on it, I think...

[kvskelton]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Thank you all. When you get older things you shrugged off as a young man really hit hard. 

Amen, brother. Hope you get well soon, John. 

[Carvers Gap]

44 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

@Carvers Gap the maps look really good.  Just need a well timed system to drop from Wyoming to Louisiana.  I don't have access to individuals.  Is the Euro throwing anything showing this type potential or are they mostly showing a gradient pattern in the LR? 

Yeah, so that flattens out from time to time.  I doubt modeling has the details correct.  Could be a brief warm-up and rain or could be even as severe as over-running.  I am interested to see how the models react to the phase 8 and HL blocking combo.  That could get severely cold, but I have been burned at this range too many times to count.  But yes, the trajectory(for now) favors either a cutter or over-running or both!