January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Jed33]

That was a good afd by MRX. They haven’t been as well written lately, but that’s probably bc there was nothing to talk about until now ha!

[Carvers Gap]

Can you spot the error?  18z is on the left.  0z from last night is on the right.  It isn't just the little system in the PAC.  It is the unrealistic fetch and completely wonky northern stream depiction.  The 0z run last night was just a really, really, really bad run from a model standpoint IMHO. Now, that 18z is running...we see a realistic system which "might" increase precip w/ future runs.  

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I thought this had a chance to be a significant system.  Still think that’s a possibility, but it looks fairly progressive on modeling with light precip that weakens as it moves east toward the coast.  Need to see midweek first I think……

The irony is the 18z GFS, now that it has sobered up a bit, is still producing some decent clown maps.  It could have a little bit of DGEX in it, and probably does.  However, I do wonder if it is handling the qpf a bit better?  Still has 6-10" over TRI w/ both systems, and the GEFS has been pretty steadfast in that.  It still would be a coup, but at least now it would be a realistic coup.  The 1,000mi Pacific fetch is not present on this run.  The 17th vort looks pretty vigorous.  I suspect your original thoughts may end up being correct.  The NBM is pretty aggressive for a model which most of the time is not.

[Golf757075]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Th 18z AI GFS(yeah, I know) is wild.  I really wish it had winter numbers for ice and snow.  As is, you are left to guess.  I do think ice is a huge risk w/ this pattern.

The 18z GFS has two, light snow events...the 17th event has a bit more moisture.

Read the advice from MRX regarding northern stream systems.  Let's see if the 17th system doesn't start to add back some moisture during the next few runs.  It is just now coming out of the 5-7 window where sometimes systems get "lost" and still might be a couple of runs from exiting that window.

I take 18z ai gfs for $2,000 Carver. It would be nice

[Scottie16]

Can you spot the error?  18z is on the left.  0z from last night is on the right.  It isn't just the little system in the PAC.  It is the unrealistic fetch and completely wonky northern stream depiction.  The 0z run last night was just a really, really, really bad run from a model standpoint IMHO. Now, that 18z is running...we see a realistic system which "might" increase precip w/ future runs.  

Seems like the west coast is experiencing that Pineapple Express you spoke on earlier. Id assume that’s causing some errors with each model.


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[Scottie16]

I thought this had a chance to be a significant system.  Still think that’s a possibility, but it looks fairly progressive on modeling with light precip that weakens as it moves east toward the coast.  Need to see midweek first I think……

We are almost in SMR!


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

RGEM is even spinning up a low in Louisiana in its la la range. as far as I can tell it is the only model with that feature:

looped to see the spin:

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Seems like the west coast is experiencing that Pineapple Express you spoke on earlier. Id assume that’s causing some errors with each model.


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The West has had two atmospheric river events so far this winter...probably technically one, but really two good storm cycle in Mammoth.  We normally(I don't think) get the Pineapple Express until Nino winters.  I wouldn't mind a strong STJ w/ so much cold lurking.  

The thing which interests me the most is HL blocking trapping part of the TPV, and forcing it southward.  We are playing w/ house money right now since climatology supports our coldest weather at this time of year.  It is probably one of the few times of year where I find the coldest wx model, and ride with it (with some confidence that other modeling is too warm).  

The main error was the GFS trying to extend a piece of the trough almost 1,000 miles to the West which just wasn't realistic.  It has had some really weird runs since Thanksgiving.  Another one is under way where it has a beautiful block over the top, but zonal flow underneath for a time - not realistic IMHO.

I did notice that @Met1985said the GFS was the only model which got the mountain snow overnight correct.  Other models were to dry.  I suspect that is true for the 17th.  I little 1-3" slider wouldn't surprise me if it occurs at night.

[John1122]

Had a dusting earlier today. Quickly melted away. May be coming down with the flu. Been going to middle and high school basketball games this week and that's rolling the dice on a good week. 

[Carvers Gap]

I think the thing to watch for is energy diving into the back of the trough around the 17th.  The 500 Geopotential maps look ripe for mischief on the GEFS.  I tossed the GFS as soon as it started to transfer energy from Calgary to Seattle - same deal where it tries to connect to energy 400 miles to the west and not realistic.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Had a dusting earlier today. Quickly melted away. May be coming down with the flu. Been going to middle and high school basketball games this week and that's rolling the dice on a good week. 

It is everywhere right now, man.  Hope you don't have it, but if you do...hope you feel better fast.  Some great anti-virals out there right now - probably the only silver lining if you can call it that.  

[Carvers Gap]

And somehow, the GFS goes from that crazy northwest low to a SE winter storm...just like that.  What a wild model.  It is DGEX level right now after 150 on most runs.

[Carvers Gap]

Even though that last storm is highly doubtful on the 18z GFS and because there is really a pause for a bit until the next models roll....that storm is a great example of a vortex coming into central or SoCal and causing a winter storm here, ie the Los Angeles rain rule. The GFS does seem intent on building a glacier in the Apps for sure.  Prob isn't right, but lets see if the Euro AIFS has a hint of a storm around the 24-25th.  Ensembles have keyed on that timeframe of late.  Gonna be a fun clown map for the full run nonetheless.

[Golf757075]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Even though that last storm is highly doubtful on the 18z GFS and because there is really a pause for a bit until the next models roll....that storm is a great example of a vortex coming into central or SoCal and causing a winter storm here, ie the Los Angeles rain rule. The GFS does seem intent on building a glacier in the Apps for sure.  Prob isn't right, but lets see if the Euro AIFS has a hint of a storm around the 24-25th.  Ensembles have keyed on that timeframe of late.  Gonna be a fun clown map for the full run nonetheless.

The mjo progression would support some type of winter event based on just that imo. Fun to look at regardless. I still think trough has been a little too far east for most

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Golf757075 said:

The mjo progression would support some type of winter event based on just that imo. Fun to look at regardless. I still think trough has been a little too far east for most

I don't trust the MJO plots right now. I quit using them about three weeks ago(roughly).  I do think there are about to be some good things happen in the phase 8 region though, and that might be a legit signal - I hope.  February in phase 8-1-2 would be crazy good.  So far(fingers crossed) Feb looks like it is going to be a winter month this year....the Nina should begin to retreat to weaker levels by then.  A weak Nina in February w/ a negative QBO is usually a great combo.  I think what is driving the bus right now is the EPO (NAO component possible), and until it relents...going to assume blocking trumps the rest.

[Golf757075]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don't trust the MJO plots right now. I quit using them about three weeks ago(roughly).  I do think there are about to be some good things happen in the phase 8 region though, and that might be a legit signal - I hope.  February in phase 8-1-2 would be crazy good.  So far(fingers crossed) Feb looks like it is going to be a winter month this year....the Nina should begin to retreat to weaker levels by then.  A weak Nina in February w/ a negative QBO is usually a great combo.  I think what is driving the bus right now is the EPO (NAO component possible), and until it relents...going to assume blocking trumps the rest.

I agree to an extent but I would like to see the trough somewhat west. I personally would feel better about it 

[Met1985]

37 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The West has had two atmospheric river events so far this winter...probably technically one, but really two good storm cycle in Mammoth.  We normally(I don't think) get the Pineapple Express until Nino winters.  I wouldn't mind a strong STJ w/ so much cold lurking.  

The thing which interests me the most is HL blocking trapping part of the TPV, and forcing it southward.  We are playing w/ house money right now since climatology supports our coldest weather at this time of year.  It is probably one of the few times of year where I find the coldest wx model, and ride with it (with some confidence that other modeling is too warm).  

The main error was the GFS trying to extend a piece of the trough almost 1,000 miles to the West which just wasn't realistic.  It has had some really weird runs since Thanksgiving.  Another one is under way where it has a beautiful block over the top, but zonal flow underneath for a time - not realistic IMHO.

I did notice that @Met1985said the GFS was the only model which got the mountain snow overnight correct.  Other models were to dry.  I suspect that is true for the 17th.  I little 1-3" slider wouldn't surprise me if it occurs at night.

Yeah the GFS was showing the moisture from this morning coming in for a few days but was playing catchup as well. The Euro didn't have it until yesterdays 12z run. The euro has been too dry as well. But the euro at least at the H5 pattern basically nailed this cold front from 10 days out except the surface temps surprise surprise we about 20 to 30 degrees TOO WARM. honestly I only look at the gfs at short range anymore but all models have been struggling. 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Had a dusting earlier today. Quickly melted away. May be coming down with the flu. Been going to middle and high school basketball games this week and that's rolling the dice on a good week. 

Feel well soon John. 

[Matthew70]

GFS would be nice to score a coup but that’s not likely to happen.  The Euro is called King for a reason.  Only flaw I have seen with the Euro is holding energy back in the SW & being to dry.  Now the Euro AI seems like it has the bias of being to dry but other than that… it’s a slam dunk inside 5 days. 

[Vol4Life]

5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

GFS would be nice to score a coup but that’s not likely to happen.  The Euro is called King for a reason.  Only flaw I have seen with the Euro is holding energy back in the SW & being to dry.  Now the Euro AI seems like it has the bias of being to dry but other than that… it’s a slam dunk inside 5 days. 

I don’t think any model would be classified a “slam dunk” at this point.  Euro AI is better than most though 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Had a dusting earlier today. Quickly melted away. May be coming down with the flu. Been going to middle and high school basketball games this week and that's rolling the dice on a good week. 

  Sorry to hear you're sick man. I hope you recover quickly. It did a number on me. I'm still not back to normal.

 We Had 2 Dustings here Today. One around 8 , the other around 10. Contrary to the MRX Remark of mid to upper 30's in early Afternoon, it stayed 30-32 here from around 9 AM till 5 when it hit the twenties. 

[John1122]

My zone forecast from MRX now days "Moderate Snow Accumulation" Wednesday night. That has historically been 2-4 inches. 

 

Thanks for all the well wishes. I'm feeling better now than I was earlier. 

[John1122]

Euro is just nothing for either wave now. I personally prefer mild weather to dry cold. If I'm paying large heating costs I at least want some snow.