Carvers Gap Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago And also maybe 25-27th, but that may be getting over my skis at that range....but the ensembles are honking right about then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Hopefully the Euro is wrong,its still showing the MJO in the WP and with some strong blocking into Siberia but its shows a Asian winter time monsoonal flow,rhis would be a waste with the blocking into Siberia it shows in our parts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Selfishly, I'm more interested in the one closest in time currently. There looks to be a lot of energy with that system and a decent shot to overperform for someone from the east TN/southern apps part of our region. What catches my eye about this one is the GFS (normally our progressive model) is the one that closes off at 500, slowing the flow and popping a lee side low, while the Euro briefly closes off in the Ohio Valley, but quickly opens back up and scoots harmlessly out to sea. The initial system aside, I think the follower has the potential to be a big system. If you cycle through 500, the piece of energy around day 6 as shown on the 12z GFS comes in much further west through western Montana. Interestingly, even though at the surface it was a smoke show for the entire midsouth, it could have been even bigger if the piece from the four corners had gotten out in front of the energy diving south through the Dakotas (shown above) allowing for a phase. It's this piece in the four corners that detaches from the flow that @Carvers Gap notes as something to watch around the 20-21st. The Euro is much different in the evolution regarding the follower. Lots will change in the next couple of days, but even the Euro while saying no shows quite a bit of "potential". 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago The Euro deterministic didn't look terrible. Indeed, its ensemble is much different than other ensembles, BUT has trended towards the other cluster of ensembles (eastern intrusion of BN heights after the 20th) since yesterday. That tells me the EPS is probably still correcting. FWIW, the EPO ridge appears to have some staying power. I think the spacing and timing of the next three windows is incredibly important - 15th, 17th, and 20th. Amplified troughs will often over perform IMHO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 10 hours ago Author Share Posted 10 hours ago If I recall correctly the AIEuro was better than just about every other model regarding snow last winter. The GEM was usually too extreme. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Haha. You all know I am not using chatGPT, because there are so many auto-correct spelling errors or careless errors. If those aren't present, I have been sucked into the singularity and there needs to be a well check. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago There should be snow in the air as early as tomorrow for areas north of I40 and Nashville eastward. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 12 minutes ago, John1122 said: If I recall correctly the AIEuro was better than just about every other model regarding snow last winter. The GEM was usually too extreme. The AI Euro hasn't been terrible this winter, especially w/ surface features. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Probably the best look we've seen all season other than what you guys got in the east got earlier.hopefully something transpires for someone 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwoodian Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago What is highest likelihood timing for the modeled big storm? 1/18-1/20?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago The 18z GFS will unlikely have the big storm on the 17th as the cold front is not ingesting a tropical system from the Pacific! Haha. Still, I think we see some light snows traversing some portions of the forum. edit: Although, there still is Pacific feed to the Southwest of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago The 18z AIGFS actually has that connection but w/ the Gulf. I do think there is a better than decent chance the GFS is on to something in regards to the 17th system tapping subtropical moisture - more likely a Gulf feed. The 18z GFS is pretty putrid, but it wouldn't take much for that to be stronger. Interestingly, the 12z GFS run just looked really amplified from the word "go." We have seen that from the GFS since November, ie a really bad tendency to over amplify all features on the map. I have to think there is a programming change for that to keep occurring. This 18z run looks a little more realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago haha...and boom, there it goes. Putrid it is not. Gulf feed this time w/ some Pacific feed which I think is sketch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, Carvers Gap said: haha...and boom, there it goes. Putrid it is not. Gulf feed this time w/ some Pacific feed which I think is sketch. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Weak SLP with the STJ overunning the front...been back and forth with overunning and popping a miller. Either way atleast it's not losing it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Haha, true Reb. I was like, "What the heck?" when that next slide hit. I have an old rule that says when a strong cold front drags its feet along the Gulf, that tends to allow for cyclogenesis. You can watch that front hit the waters of the Gulf, and immediately moisture flows north. A word of caution w/ that setup, and have been shafted many times by this scenario...if that develops(assuming real) convection along the Gulf, it will stop the moisture feed north. I don't trust the Pacific feature feeding in, BUT(and this is a big but) the synoptics with this run used the Gulf feed scenario which is more plausible. Still, it is the GFS. However, the GFSAI got to a similar place. If the Euro AIFS continues to have it, that would be incredibly encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago And I have posted this for a few days. When you see 500 Geopotential maps that look like this, that is the setup for a good winter storm in the Upper South. Moisture feed from the southwest as very cold air crashes in. I remember a storm in 1985 which did something similar. How do I know this? My dad was hauling oil from St Louis that winter. He called and said that he had been barely driving in front of a winter storm the entire trip back to TRI. Sure enough, he pulled in and snow moved in immediately. We had 2-3 foot drifts of cold driven snow in my yard by the next day...I didn't live in the bubble at the time. I have to think this is a similar setup. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 18z GEFS increased the mean some for the 1st event across the eastern valley 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housemtnTN Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 2 hours ago, jaxjagman said: I'll take a shot of the GFS Holy mackerel 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Just now, housemtnTN said: Holy mackerel The entire run at 12z was 1-3 feet over most of the state. That is just the second storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housemtnTN Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The entire run at 12z was 1-3 feet over most of the state. That is just the second storm. Not gonna get my hopes up too much, but I would squeal like a little girl if that came to fruition lol. My wife and I have twin boys that are 18 months old and we're hoping for a big snow they can enjoy. We took them out in those snow squalls we had come through this past November, they didn't know what to think! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwoodian Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago What is highest likelihood timing for the modeled big storm? 1/18-1/20?.Bump…sorry guys I’m a total newb on these maps and terminologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 18z GEFS looking better on the mean with the evolution of the overrunning signal for 2nd system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago lol. I have been out with th better half & was like please let me come back to the HOT sign. Yessss it was on!! I think we are breaking the system. It’s struggling to let me like & lol some of these posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago I don't have anything meaningful to add right now... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 14 minutes ago, midwoodian said: Bump…sorry guys I’m a total newb on these maps and terminologies . I don’t think we are close enough to discuss timing. I’m still trying to determine if the threat is a legit threat. Got a little closer today though, IMO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago GFS again I’m sorry for putting you down. Hugs from me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Just now, *Flash* said: I don't have anything meaningful to add right now... We all just need to hug the GFS at this time. Make it feel loved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: I don’t think we are close enough to discuss timing. I’m still trying to determine if the threat is a legit threat. Got a little closer today though, IMO. Les keep that HOT sign on. Just like a Krispy Kreme sign. Love me some sugar donuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewman22001 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago GFS again I’m sorry for putting you down. Hugs from me! I love it when we have systems on deck! Likes and lols incoming . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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