January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro is rolling.  I can't see the surface maps yet, but again, another run w/ closely spaced vortices dropping into a very amplified trough.  We might still be 24-48 hours from having a good handle on the 15-17th sequence of systems.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro does provide a path to snowfall for our southernmost areas of the forum w/ snow tracking from Louisiana into north GA/SE TN, and into the Carolinas.  There is a lot of snow shower activity.  At this range, it is going to be difficult for modeling to sort through all of the energy in the pipeline.  Looks like nickels and dimes w/ the potential for a big dog(looking more like the 17th at the moment, but that could change).  With such strong amplification, any shortwave is going to have to be watched closely.

Just one cold air mass after another on the 12z Euro through the 23rd(end of run).  Interestingly, the 12z Euro locks the EPO into place.  Now, that would be interesting if that trend holds.  I have seen that on some other models recently, but it doesn't budge much at 12z.  It just keeps kicking the SER right OTS.

[Weatheriscool]

19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro does provide a path to snowfall for our southernmost areas of the forum w/ snow tracking from Louisiana into north GA/SE TN, and into the Carolinas.  There is a lot of snow shower activity.  At this range, it is going to be difficult for modeling to sort through all of the energy in the pipeline.  Looks like nickels and dimes w/ the potential for a big dog(looking more like the 17th at the moment, but that could change).  With such strong amplification, any shortwave is going to have to be watched closely.

Just one cold air mass after another on the 12z Euro through the 23rd(end of run).  Interestingly, the 12z Euro locks the EPO into place.  Now, that would be interesting if that trend holds.  I have seen that on some other models recently, but it doesn't budge much at 12z.  It just keeps kicking the SER right OTS.

That is one sustained cold look! 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS ensembles now lock the EPO ridge in place - that is a one day map, but the 5d for the end of the run looks very similar.  It retrogrades the first EPO as we thought it would, and then almost immediately forms a new one.  Does this pattern have more staying power than originally thought?  Maybe.  Some deterministic runs are portraying that scenario now.  The EPO can be very difficult to break down once it forms.  The 12z GEFS also has the NAO in place as well.  Here are the comparison from 6z to 12z.  The 12z Euro deterministic looks super similar to the 12z GEFS.  That would mean that Larry is about to score the coup if it holds.  He called that from November w/ analog forecasting and ENSO climatology.  He was adamant.  He might be within 7 days of that predicted pattern unfolding and hopefully holding.  That look has precedent w/ previous Nina winters...just dig back through our threads.  It looks the same as our recent Nina winters but the trough is nudged slightly eastward w/ more cold on the SE portion.  That fits the cluster w/ -QBO reading  and weak Nina winters.  The QBO fell again during December to -26.92, and is a very low reading for that index.

This could be a blip, or it could be a shift...but that is a pretty big move.

Addendum:  The 12z GEPS builds the EPO as well, but is a tad slower w/ the move.  But the EPO rebuilding after the first cycle looks like a trend now at 12z.  Even the EPS has moved AN height into the EPO region late in the run.

[midwoodian]

The mother of all clippers. 
 

 

What creates the dry slot for metro chatt and southern TN valley? Orographic elements from the plateau?


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[Save the itchy algae!]

What creates the dry slot for metro chatt and southern TN valley? Orographic elements from the plateau?


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The short answer is climatology, but someone else will give a better explanation. Probably relative downslope and maybe temp profile.


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[John1122]

6 minutes ago, midwoodian said:

What creates the dry slot for metro chatt and southern TN valley? Orographic elements from the plateau?


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Some precip fell down south but it was rain, the track of the clipper was why there was little precip there though. Clippers usually see the bulk of their moisture on the N side of the LP track. It tracked right across 40 that run and there was very little precip on the southern side of the system.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Some precip fell down south but it was rain, the track of the clipper was why there was little precip there though. Clippers usually see the bulk of their moisture on the N side of the LP track. It tracked right across 40 that run and there was very little precip on the southern side of the system.

Exactly. As far as the upper great Valley you see the sharp drop in amount then the rise after reaching the App Spine, that can be a bit of Downsloping but ,probably in this situation( as shouldn't be much wind) just Model interpretation of that area getting less as alot of downsloping events caused that area to get less and therefore all that data has been ingested into the Model's and they " assume" less for there. 

  Also, some erroneous Weather Observer Data has gone into the Model Ingest System for several Years now from that general Area. That's a Factor as well. 

[dwagner88]

The GFS is going to cause flooding here Saturday. It's significantly heavier with the precip than the other globals and has SE TN and N. GA in the 4-7" range.

[Golf757075]

I think the mjo is moving but will it change the pattern to colder? I hope it does or whatever else we need. 

[Matthew70]

2 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

I think the mjo is moving but will it change the pattern to colder? I hope it does or whatever else we need. 

There is a lot of drivers of the upcoming pattern.  Cannot focus just on the mJo.

[Golf757075]

4 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

There is a lot of drivers of the upcoming pattern.  Cannot focus just on the mJo.

I agree there is more than just that. Just ready for some winter weather action in my area

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 hour ago, dwagner88 said:

The GFS is going to cause flooding here Saturday. It's significantly heavier with the precip than the other globals and has SE TN and N. GA in the 4-7" range.

WPC and NBM have backed down on precip. totals by an inch or so over most areas. That said, I think 3-4" is possible wherever the firehose sets up and if it stays put. 

RGEM, NAMs, and RAP are further south with the firehose bullseye than the globals have been until recently, towards your area. 

We'll see if we get a tick NW by tomorrow AM. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z ensembles roll a ridge through as expected right around the 21s....and then they bring the trough almost immediately back East as the EPO rebuilds.  12z GEFS w/ the coup if that is how it works out - yes, wow.

Crazy day today...and I have been out of pocket for most of it.  Tomorrow should be the same.  Don't assume my absence means bad things!

[Carvers Gap]

Model of choice at 18z....AIFS Euro deterministic.  

[John1122]

GFS with just a massive winter storm that run but around day 10-12. Unlikely as always but it's nice to see the pattern being recognized by models as one that produces. It's close to 2 feet in NW Tennessee and lots of ice too across the forum area. 

The Canadian sends clippers for East Tennessee, SE KY and SW Va in the usual spots, mainly north of 40. 

[Matthew70]

Just now, John1122 said:

GFS with just a massive winter storm that run but around day 10-12. Unlikely as always but it's nice to see the pattern being recognized by models as one that produces. It's close to 2 feet in NW Tennessee and lots of ice too across the forum area. 

The Canadian sends clippers for East Tennessee, SE KY and SW Va in the usual spots, mainly north of 40. 

Well Gents it’s almost time to start tracking!!! The GFS is trying to catch the ball.  

[John1122]

Not likely but the potential of the pattern. Lots of ice from the Plateau back to SW Tennessee as well under that snow. 

 

[John1122]

The GEFS through 240 has almost the same exact snow footprint as the Canadian, but naturally a bit lighter since it's an ensemble. 

[John1122]

If that low track was 100 miles south on the GFS, that heavy snow would have been 100 miles south too. It was a west to east gulf low but about 75-100 miles north of our best tracks. 

[Matthew70]

Well we appear to be where the battle line is going to be from cold rain, ice or snow.  Typical for the I40 line.  

[John1122]

The Euro has a slider/miller A going inside D10. Nice hit for Eastern areas and Western NC. The mountains get buried with 12+ 3-6 or so Eastern Highland rim to the foothills.

[John1122]

The Euro AI has the same footprint but much drier. I've noticed the Euro Ai last year was always the driest model, and the AI GFS is also drier than the OP models.

[John1122]

This is two systems, a light one (heavy in the mountains) around D6/7 and the other around D9/10.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

We finally have a potential system (the 15 January ish) in range of the 6z Euro and it has a little better shortwave further west:

 

Personally I'd like that whole trough axis about 300 miles west, but still time to move around one way or another. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Trend on the EPS is for more vorticity in the base of the trough:

 

Would should be bale to have the EPS panels to go along with the GFS member panels covering the event by 18 or 0z tonight.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Does anyone know how to access ensemble H5 vort panels? Tomer Burg used to have that one Polarwx (I think), but can't find those particular panels any longer. 

[*Flash*]

25 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

We finally have a potential system (the 15 January ish) in range of the 6z Euro and it has a little better shortwave further west:

 

Personally I'd like that whole trough axis about 300 miles west, but still time to move around one way or another. 

 

More west/southern digging…trends I’m rooting for!

[GBOVolz]

Trying to keep up. My mom isn’t doing well and I haven’t been able to consistently mod watch but it looks like we finally have something to track.


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[brewman22001]

Trying to keep up. My mom isn’t doing well and I haven’t been able to consistently mod watch but it looks like we finally have something to track.


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I’m sorry to hear your mom isn’t doing well. You all will be in my thoughts and prayers.
I’m hoping for a good snow sometime soon. I’d love to see something like the blizzard of 93 again!!


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