January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

5 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

It would be our luck.

Pretty good look pattern coming up.  I think some in the forum scores...even if just a light event.  I mean there are kind of two camps:  a big dog or just bunches of small, northern events.

[tnweathernut]

28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Pretty good look pattern coming up.  I think some in the forum score...even if just a light event.  I mean there are kind of two camps:  a big dog or just bunches of small, northern events.

I'd give you guys 3-4 minor events if I could have the big dog.  lol 

Keep the moisture feed going with the cold (enough) air close by and we will at least be at the right ballpark.  Just need a ticket to get in.

[Golf757075]

I know there is more than just the mjo, but if it really progresses, then we should be in better shape moving forward. I don't like the kicking can scenario too much lol

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Golf757075 said:

I know there is more than just the mjo, but if it really progresses, then we should be in better shape moving forward. I don't like the kicking can scenario too much lol

The pieces are moving and 500 is throwing some good looks.  Looks like we are no longer waiting for things to evolve into a pattern that could change, the wheels seem to be well in motion.

[John1122]

The EPS has a nice pass into Phase 8 by late month. Wintery chances along with it.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS is bumping up the snow mean just a bit.  Its ensemble continues to cool quite a bit.

[Carvers Gap]

Some big dogs on the ensemble member group.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

I'd give you guys 3-4 minor events if I could have the big dog.  lol 

Keep the moisture feed going with the cold (enough) air close by and we will at least be at the right ballpark.  Just need a ticket to get in.

It's tough for me. I like a big storm but, if it's just one and no more I'm more inclined to several light events I guess. However, if it were a true big dog ( foot or more) then probably it.

[Carvers Gap]

18z GEFS stuff...

 

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GEFS stuff...

 

P28 and satisfaction for the Winter.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z AIFS Euro barely lets the eastern ridge build after the first retrograding cycle.  It almost immediately retrogrades again into the Eastern Pac.  The cold TPV sitting in the middle of the continent really won't let the ridge build over the East, and it squashes the SER.  I am not seeing a tendency to retrograde the TPV into the West, not on the deterministic and not on the ensemble.  The SER is going to try to flex, but IF the setup for the TPV is correct, I bet that trough is underdone.  I hate to use a 360 map, but this is where models were originally showing the trough dumping into the West.  Do you see a trough in the West?  This is a TPV dominant pattern if it verifies, and that vortex could possibly rule the roost if real.  The other trend I am seeing is the tendency for HL blocking to lock it in place which would prevent a retreat across the pole once in place.  Let's see if this verifies. I  am making NO promises this is legit as modeling has been "you know what" most of the winter at this range.  This look is very common on many models.  When modeling starts to key on major patterns like this, it can score at range.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

P28 and satisfaction for the Winter.

Yeah, I want the light blue hues over MBY.

[Matthew70]

Hopefully what is being shown is going to have staying power.  This warmup is well needed if the models are right on the pattern that is now underway.  I say bring it….winter!!

[Coach B]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

P28 and satisfaction for the Winter.

Obviously none of us put a lot of stock in the individual ensemble snow panels.....but they sure are fun to look at when they start lighting up. P17 gives me the same 9.3" as p28 but in three separate events. Think that answers the above question for me. I'll take multiple events. 

[Daniel Boone]

27 minutes ago, Coach B said:

Obviously none of us put a lot of stock in the individual ensemble snow panels.....but they sure are fun to look at when they start lighting up. P17 gives me the same 9.3" as p28 but in three separate events. Think that answers the above question for me. I'll take multiple events. 

Yeah, and there's quite a bit of good hits in them. 

[John1122]

Just a wild system on the GFS absolutely pasting north of 40. 

[John1122]

The mother of all clippers. 

 

 

[John1122]

The Canadian has it too, but less extreme. 

[Matthew70]

26 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The mother of all clippers. 

 

 

Need that clipper to drop south about 3 counties in middle TN.

[Matthew70]

32 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Just a wild system on the GFS absolutely pasting north of 40. 

PASTE MY BACKYARD PLEASE! 

[*Flash*]

6 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Need that clipper to drop south about 3 counties in middle TN.

I was about to say. Give me some 2003 or 1988 juice with that. 

[Carvers Gap]

So far w/ the 12z suite is rolling:

1.  The ICON hass a coastal system and could trend much bigger if real...

2.  The GFS and RGEM both have pretty decent snow shower activity Sunday.

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z AIFS Euro does that crazy deal where the slp cuts off over Idaho and heads to San Fran..  I think that is part of the feedback that we have seen all winter in that part of the world.  If that doesn't occur(which I doubt it does), programmers across modeling need to take a serious look at what is going on in the western US w/ storm prediction - it is rough.  With many millions of people living downstream of that...it needs to get fixed.  There is almost assuredly some shared programming as evidenced by that pinched of low tracking westward over the US.

[Carvers Gap]

At 156, the GFS misses the phases.  Not unexpected from a model which has a progressive bias.  Let's see where ensembles go with that.  That said there is still a lot of energy behind the initial front which is dragging its feet.

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS almost got to where the ICON was...just too quick w/ the southern stream to make the phase.  Let's see where the other deterministic runs go w/ that.  IF It forms a coastal in reality...that is honestly about where we want it on the GFS w/ the westward trend and it missing the phase.  If that phases, it could be well west of that.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS avoids the westward trekking slp, and sends a consolidated and highly amplified trough in the East around the 17th.  If the GFS is wrong w/ the system on the 15th, and if it is more amplified as I suspect it might be....the rest of the pattern would be more amplified.  As is, the trailing trough being the 15th amplification will be every bit as imposing.

[Carvers Gap]

It has been some time since we have seen troughs this amplified on modeling.  At 222, the GFS has a trough running from Anchorage to New Orleans.    This one sucks the TPV into the pattern(we've talked about that potential), and creates quite a cold front(w/ snow) around the 17th.  Again, not sure this second front is being modeled correctly if the mis-phase is an error on the 15th...but it is impressive nonetheless at 500.  Either way, we have seen modeling really keying on this time frame for strong amplification.

[Carvers Gap]

Kind of for fun at this point and in fantasy land at 258, a piece of the TPV is now trapped under a HL block.  It is losing latitude like it was dropped off of a building.  Could be a cold run for the GL and NE....glancing shot here.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM manages a neutral tilt phase over the TN and OH valleys.  I can't see surface maps yet on the 15h, but that might be a Miller B hybrid.

[Carvers Gap]

It really is crazy how much energy is in the pattern, but not surprising giving how amplified the trough is.  It is antithesis of what we have seen w/ the longwave pattern this winter.  The 12z CMC ends up w/ just one minor event after another.  

One thought as we wait for the Euro....we used to call systems that were back to back the "engine and caboose" setup.  Modeling will often head fake w/ one system, string things out, and then consolidate w/ the other.  Sometimes, the caboose ends up as the bigger storm, and sometimes the engine.  I think modeling isn't sure which storm to phase, the 15th or 17th.  It could end up strung out, but I kind of think one of those two ends up bigger depending on spacing.  The caboose is stronger at 12z.

edit:  The 12z GEM gets very close to another system on the 17th as it does form a low which runs the coast as a weak reflection.  The trailing northern stream still manages to dump a decent amount of snow on the northern 1/3 of the forum...east of Nashville 2-8" of snow in those areas.  The mountains get pounded.  The event is still ongoing as the run ended w/ a weak lee side slp forming.