January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Mammoth Snowfall Rates are expected to hit 3.3 inches per hour tomorrow at noon.  They are expecting up to 4 feet with 100mph wind gusts. They had 11 inches overnight into this morning. 

As long as it's snowing like that there, we're not going to be having much in the way of winter chances. 

 

 

Yeah, most of the Time that is the case.

[Carvers Gap]

19 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, most of the Time that is the case.

I have always thought there is a correlation w/ rain in Los Angeles, and eventual snow here....almost as good as the thunder-in-the-mountains rule.  The rain at the Rose Bowl made me think of that.   

[nrgjeff]

Weeks 3-4 chart isn't horrible. If it's an average of some warm days and some cold..

Texas slider on colder days would drop snow at least north of I-40.

[Daniel Boone]

19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I have always thought there is a correlation w/ rain in Los Angeles, and eventual snow here....almost as good as the thunder-in-the-mountains rule.  The rain at the Rose Bowl made me think of that.   

Yeah, I think mainly if there's split Flow.

   As you know, we have gotten many snowfalls with the STJ Trekking across southern call and across the southern States but generally the Polar Jet Trough is down into the Plains and East. They would tend to merge . If not, a wave riding the STJ would move up enough to produce Snow with HP to our North .

[Golf757075]

I think it's the mjo in the null phase with no true coherent signal imo. Its an interesting pattern with an east based niña and pdo weakening. Getting close to waiving the white flag on winter already unfortunately. Not sure what's going on other than speculation 

[Carvers Gap]

Decent looking 12z suite so far.  If modeling isn't seeing cold(as we have seen many times this winter), could be a really good pattern.  Overall 500 trends are good.  Get that EPO ridge in place, and let's see if we can get cold into those ensuing troughs.  The 0z GEM is definitely cold, but rarely isn't!

[Carvers Gap]

Looks to me like the transition to an eastern trough is quicker by abut 18-36 hours.  I think the first window for snow is Jan 11-12.   Likely it is NW flow w/ an outside shot at a wave riding the cold front.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, I think mainly if there's split Flow.

   As you know, we have gotten many snowfalls with the STJ Trekking across southern call and across the southern States but generally the Polar Jet Trough is down into the Plains and East. They would tend to merge . If not, a wave riding the STJ would move up enough to produce Snow with HP to our North .

Biggest thorn in LR modeling is a slp in the GL region.  Other than that, decent looks after Jan 10.  Just need a storm to hookup w/ some cold.  I have definitely seen a trend for split flow w/ the EPO ridge.  Might be a good sign to see a wetter So Cal in terms of that verifying later on.  Getting more precip into the pattern will certainly help our chances.  Drought is tough to overcome even if cold.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks to me like the 0z Euro is about to bring it(cold).  

[Carvers Gap]

No idea if that will verify, but if anything, the Euro has stuck pretty consistently to this look that it has at 0z.   Post 300 is frigid.  That is certainly a plausible solution given the EPO ridge.  It also fits the 500 pattern that ensembles have been showing for several days, but this run has cold to fill the trough.  The 0z GEM has cold embedded as well, and so does the AI Euro. The 0z Euro actually bridges the EPO into Siberia.  We take that run 10/10 times.  

One thing of note...I have noted I prefer the GFS at the end of shoulder season and into December.  And not just because it has maintained a more favorable look, but the Euro tends to do a bit better IMHO during mid winter as the long wave pattern stabilizes.  Let's see if it continues to lead the way.  No promises from me, but it will be interesting to see models "react" to what might well be an EPO ridge about to form.  I want to see that ridge build, before really getting overly excited.  With modeling struggling this winter, we need to see it inside of d5 which it almost is.

[Carvers Gap]

Why the good runs at 0z tonight?  At first glance, it looks like wx modeling is holding onto the NAO longer.  It gets knocked down, but quickly rebuilds.  I have noticed over the years that sometimes modeling will mistakenly remove it too quickly.  Is that happening now?  Maybe.  To early to be sure.  The NAO is notoriously difficult to model.  Good trends though at 0z.  

[Carvers Gap]

Significant cooling of all three major non-AI ensembles overnight.  Looks to me like a very normal and cold EPO look.  Ensembles trended away from putting the trough out West.

[Weatheriscool]

44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Significant cooling of all three major non-AI ensembles overnight.  Looks to me like a very normal and cold EPO look.  Ensembles trended away from putting the trough out West.

Hopefully it is cold and wet, we didnt get anything from that rain yesterday, it all slid south of us, the dryness continues

[*Flash*]

I know it doesn't impact east TN, but I'll take what the 6z AI Euro is suggesting for 1/13/26. Decent 2-3" for west/northwest middle TN on that run. Hopefully some mischief is being sniffed out here. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I know it doesn't impact east TN, but I'll take what the 6z AI Euro is suggesting for 1/13/26. Decent 2-3" for northwest middle TN on that run. Hopefully some mischief is being sniffed out here. 

 

I was thinking the 6z GFS wasn't too far off from a similar soultion:

A little progressive, but it is the GFS. Might be worth my time to look at individual ensemble members. 

[Carvers Gap]

17 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Hopefully it is cold and wet, we didnt get anything from that rain yesterday, it all slid south of us, the dryness continues

I think some Nina winters are just a struggle to get precip.  I think I noted in for my winter ideas (back in June) that fall should be dry.  IMBY, we have done ok.  West of me....not so much.  Some Nina patterns can be the exact opposite of dry.  There is a bank of analogs which brings flooding rains after fall and into spring and the next summer.  I would expect, especially w/ Nino incoming over the summer, that the drought situation should moderate by late summer at the latest. Modeling has been generally honking that we should see increased moisture over the next two months, but I am not holding my breath as it "appears" they are struggling to handle even the EPO ridge at almost short range.

[AMZ8990]

Yeah this next 5-7 days is definitely gonna be above average temp wise for a large majority of the lower 48 outside of the west coast.  It could be record highs in some areas from the looks of it.  As John mentioned earlier it’s gonna be another huge weekend for the snow lovers in California!!  As for us in the Tennessee Valley I do think we’re headed in the right direction based off what we’re seeing in long term guidance, we’ve just gotta get through a warm week to get there!

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro is bringing it.  Good 12z suite again.  Winter storm on the Euro and upslope on the CMC.

[Carvers Gap]

Shocked...I mean I am shocked that the ensembles have suddenly found cold air on a continent that was without it(on LR modeling) for days.  Not really.  

[Golf757075]

48 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Shocked...I mean I am shocked that the ensembles have suddenly found cold air on a continent that was without it(on LR modeling) for days.  Not really.  

Carver, now we hope it sticks and not a headfake lol. Im ready for some real winter weather action 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Shocked...I mean I am shocked that the ensembles have suddenly found cold air on a continent that was without it(on LR modeling) for days.  Not really.  

As we have heard from some very knowledgeable meteorologist, patience will be needed for this winter.  Great example of why not to never cancel winter after one run.

[*Flash*]

12z GEFS went colder as well. Solid trends though I expect Lucy to come out at 18z or 0z. 

[Matthew70]

10 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

12z GEFS went colder as well. Solid trends though I expect Lucy to come out at 18z or 0z. 

Lucy’s been kicked off the team.

[Carvers Gap]

39 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

Carver, now we hope it sticks and not a headfake lol. Im ready for some real winter weather action 

TRI ended 2025 w the biggest snow departures in all of E TN.  I think Knoxville ended up w/ more which is unusual.  I won't be bashful this year if TRI scores some snow.

[brewman22001]

Lucy’s been kicked off the team.

Did we lose that short found winter storm. I know often times they disappear for a day or two then come back. Thank you everyone for your knowledge and input


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[*Flash*]

Phew, those contours are thicc. Nice to see a clown map on the board. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS is again honking w/ overrunning and the AIFS Euro is similar.  Those tracks and setups will change at this point...but at least modeling is throwing out some good solutions.

[Weatheriscool]

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Phew, those contours are thicc. Nice to see a clown map on the board. 

Lock it in

[brewman22001]

Lock it in

100 miles east and I’ll take it with zero complaints!!


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[Carvers Gap]

Haha. The 18z GEFS on WX Bell has found the cold!!!  EPO doin’ the work…