January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

AMAZINGLY(and I use that word sparingly), models kind of settled down today after 300.  Check out the 12z Euro and GFS at 360.  That is a really great pattern.  The good thing is the Euro gets there pretty quickly.  With the Jan 2 trough, the Euro never really lets the ridge come back East.  It simply retrogrades the ridge further west with each passing vortex -> that is probably the most likely scenario.  Simply put the map in motion at 500, and watch the ridge keep popping up further west.  If we can manage an EPO ridge which couples w/ the NAO block(and traps cold under it....better than 70/30 chance in my mind)...we might like where the surface pattern goes.

 

[Matthew70]

Great analysis & discussion in here today.  Like always really.  Thank you to all contributing!  Let’s reel in the cold enough air for a statewide snowwwwww!!!

 

I say cold enough because I do not won’t any suppression where the beaches get snow.  Lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Great analysis & discussion in here today.  Like always really.  Thank you to all contributing!  Let’s reel in the cold enough air for a statewide snowwwwww!!!

 

I say cold enough because I do not won’t any suppression where the beaches get snow.  Lol. 

Seems like a much cooler suite.  It could just be ebb and flow, but a lot of cold is present(even if AN at times) in Canada when compared to earlier runs.  If the BN temps remain in Canada w/ an EPO/NAO couplet....it should come SE.  Remember that 84-85 analog map(should be in the December thread) of the December warm-up in 84?  While I don't think we see that type of flip, we could certainly see a lot of cold air headed south if trends continue.  When I was growing up and spent some time on a farm, we generally enjoyed warm-ups at this time of year...but we knew what was likely coming next.  

Maybe the thing which is most encouraging is that ensembles are catching up now.  If they are under playing the pattern(as they have for most of the season regarding cold), this could be a very cold pattern upcoming.  I still want a 3-4 more days of model runs for things to get dialed-in though.  

[Matthew70]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Seems like a much cooler suite.  It could just be ebb and flow, but a lot of cold is present(even if AN at times) in Canada when compared to earlier runs.  If the BN temps remain in Canada w/ an EPO/NAO couplet....it should come SE.  Remember that 84-85 analog map(should be in the December thread) of the December warm-up in 84?  While I don't think we see that type of flip, we could certainly see a lot of cold air headed south if trends continue.  When I was growing up and spent some time on a farm, we generally enjoyed warm-ups at this time of year...but we knew what was likely coming next.  

Maybe the thing which is most encouraging is that ensembles are catching up now.  If they are under playing the pattern(as they have for most of the season regarding cold), this could be a very cold pattern upcoming.  I still want a 3-4 more days of model runs for things to get dialed-in though.  

I have enjoyed this warmup.  It definitely made taking down the outdoor lights easier. This time tomorrow it will be a 40 degree swing.  That’s gonna hurt.  Also I’m noticing the temps are trending downward in the forecast.  Add to that days of precip.  I noticed the CPC has the longer term  ABOVE precip chances  putting the bullseye on TN. 

[Carvers Gap]

Sign me up for this.  Keep your fingers crossed.

BN heights east or north of Hawaii(maybe a Kona Loa low???), ridge out west, trough in the east  -NAO hooked into the EPO ridge, storm signal on the EC.  If you were to design a winter pattern for our area...that is it.  Most modeling has some iteration of this, but this is by far the best look.  Notice the four quadrants in the northern hemisphere of cold and warm - 4 blues and 4 yellow/orange.  Notice the HL blocking over North America.? Notice that Europe is also cold?  That map teleconnects well.  I don't really trust modeling right now, but this map doesn't have the craziness.  The ridge over the EC today retrogrades into the West.  

 

[Matthew70]

Good gracious.   The American models are should I say awful lately.

[Carvers Gap]

This front tonight and tomorrow is going to be powerful.  Real feel temps will differ almost 40 degrees from one end of the forum to another.  According to the 18z 3kNAM, wind gusts could reach 40mph as the front passes through.  The 18z HRRR, has gusts up to 50mph on the Plateau.  Behind the front, on Monday and Tuesday wind chills very well could be in the single digits.  Actual temps tomorrow night and Tuesday night should be in the mid teens to upper 20s.  Winter is about to come back with a roar.

The 3k Nam is picking up on some light snow bands as this passes in eastern areas.  It doesn't have much accumulation, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the usual places at higher elevations get some light amounts.

 

[Carvers Gap]

I should note that no records have been broken at TRI that I know of.  Anyway, this is for posterity and future use.  What a temp change to go from near record temps on Sunday to single digit wind chills tomorrow night and below zero winch chills in the mountains!

National Weather Service Morristown TN
140 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Very warm this afternoon with possible record highs being
  broken again.

- Showers and a strong cold front cross the area tonight and
  early Monday morning.

- Strong gusty winds expected area-wide this afternoon through
  Monday, especially across the higher elevations tonight. Either
  Wind Advisories or a Special Weather Statement is in effect.

- Much colder air moves in behind the front. Wind chills near zero
  are expected across the higher elevations Monday night, and
  highs in the 30s on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

One more day of well above average temperatures before a big
pattern change beginning tonight. Low 70s are currently being
reported across parts of the valley this afternoon already. Will
include climate stats below.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures:
Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge
12-28   73(2015)       76(2015)       73(2021)       72(2021)

Southerly to southwesterly winds are also occurring. Expect these
to increase throughout the day and overnight tonight. A low center
currently over Iowa and Illinois, will deepen through the day as
it tracks towards the Great Lakes. A cold front will then develop
and trail it to the southwest. Damming to the east under high
pressure will kick-start the winds over the Southern Appalachians
likely earlier than anywhere else because of increasing pressure
gradient. This will not be a true mountain wave set-up for the
Southern Appalachians given the flow direction with the frontal
passage, but there will still be gusts to near 50 mph, as
indicated by the Wind Advisory in place there. Wind Advisories
were also added for the plateau and southwest Virginia counties.
Upon looking at the latest guidance from HREF, RRFS, and others,
winds appear they will generally remain below advisory level for
the rest of the forecast area - valley and SW NC. A Special
Weather Statement through Monday morning was issued there
mentioning gusts up to 35 mph, with possible pockets of near 40
mph. After 7 am or so, winds will slowly decrease from west to
east, but will hang on for the most part for the eastern higher
terrain. The primary direction following the front will be from
the west.

The warmest temperatures tomorrow will likely occur near midnight
for the forecast area, as the front makes its mark during the
overnight hours. A line of showers will accompany the front, but
the most we can expect are gusts translated down to the surface
from aloft with any gusty showers. The strongest of any storms or
severe weather threat, will remain close to the low`s center south
of Michigan. It appears any influence of return-
flow/northwesterly flow behind the low will remain to our north.

With lows in the 20s and teens for the higher terrain forecast
Tuesday morning and some winds persisting for the higher terrain
as well, wind chills near 0 will be possible.

Weather turns dry later tomorrow through Wednesday. High temperatures
will rebound 10 degrees or so from Tuesday into Wednesday. A
weak system will approach from the north Thursday into Friday,
bringing a chance of light precipitation, with best chances across
the northern part of the forecast area. By next weekend,
precipitation chances increase from the south as the front stalls
to our south. Where this sets up may determine how much
precipitation we see. The southern valley and SW NC could sure
use some beneficial rain to remove some of the moderate drought.

 

[Matthew70]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This front tonight and tomorrow is going to be powerful.  Real feel temps will differ almost 40 degrees from one end of the forum to another.  According to the 18z 3kNAM, wind gusts could reach 40mph as the front passes through.  The 18z HRRR, has gusts up to 50mph on the Plateau.  Behind the front, on Monday and Tuesday wind chills very well could be in the single digits.  Actual temps tomorrow night and Tuesday night should be in the mid teens to upper 20s.  Winter is about to come back with a roar.

The 3k Nam is picking up on some light snow bands as this passes in eastern areas.  It doesn't have much accumulation, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the usual places at higher elevations get some light amounts.

 

I like it!  

[Matthew70]

Has American models finally woke up…..

[John1122]

Way out but a big slider/snow event on the AI GFS that run. Temps in the 20s with over half an inch of QPF south of I-40, around .3 north of 40. Would probably have been a widespread 4-8 inch snow for most of the forum area. 

[Matthew70]

10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Way out but a big slider/snow event on the AI GFS that run. Temps in the 20s with over half an inch of QPF south of I-40, around .3 north of 40. Would probably have been a widespread 4-8 inch snow for most of the forum area. 

Nice to see but the American models have been atrocious lately. Still let’s reel it in….