January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

AMAZINGLY(and I use that word sparingly), models kind of settled down today after 300.  Check out the 12z Euro and GFS at 360.  That is a really great pattern.  The good thing is the Euro gets there pretty quickly.  With the Jan 2 trough, the Euro never really lets the ridge come back East.  It simply retrogrades the ridge further west with each passing vortex -> that is probably the most likely scenario.  Simply put the map in motion at 500, and watch the ridge keep popping up further west.  If we can manage an EPO ridge which couples w/ the NAO block(and traps cold under it....better than 70/30 chance in my mind)...we might like where the surface pattern goes.

 

[Matthew70]

Great analysis & discussion in here today.  Like always really.  Thank you to all contributing!  Let’s reel in the cold enough air for a statewide snowwwwww!!!

 

I say cold enough because I do not won’t any suppression where the beaches get snow.  Lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Great analysis & discussion in here today.  Like always really.  Thank you to all contributing!  Let’s reel in the cold enough air for a statewide snowwwwww!!!

 

I say cold enough because I do not won’t any suppression where the beaches get snow.  Lol. 

Seems like a much cooler suite.  It could just be ebb and flow, but a lot of cold is present(even if AN at times) in Canada when compared to earlier runs.  If the BN temps remain in Canada w/ an EPO/NAO couplet....it should come SE.  Remember that 84-85 analog map(should be in the December thread) of the December warm-up in 84?  While I don't think we see that type of flip, we could certainly see a lot of cold air headed south if trends continue.  When I was growing up and spent some time on a farm, we generally enjoyed warm-ups at this time of year...but we knew what was likely coming next.  

Maybe the thing which is most encouraging is that ensembles are catching up now.  If they are under playing the pattern(as they have for most of the season regarding cold), this could be a very cold pattern upcoming.  I still want a 3-4 more days of model runs for things to get dialed-in though.  

[Matthew70]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Seems like a much cooler suite.  It could just be ebb and flow, but a lot of cold is present(even if AN at times) in Canada when compared to earlier runs.  If the BN temps remain in Canada w/ an EPO/NAO couplet....it should come SE.  Remember that 84-85 analog map(should be in the December thread) of the December warm-up in 84?  While I don't think we see that type of flip, we could certainly see a lot of cold air headed south if trends continue.  When I was growing up and spent some time on a farm, we generally enjoyed warm-ups at this time of year...but we knew what was likely coming next.  

Maybe the thing which is most encouraging is that ensembles are catching up now.  If they are under playing the pattern(as they have for most of the season regarding cold), this could be a very cold pattern upcoming.  I still want a 3-4 more days of model runs for things to get dialed-in though.  

I have enjoyed this warmup.  It definitely made taking down the outdoor lights easier. This time tomorrow it will be a 40 degree swing.  That’s gonna hurt.  Also I’m noticing the temps are trending downward in the forecast.  Add to that days of precip.  I noticed the CPC has the longer term  ABOVE precip chances  putting the bullseye on TN. 

[Carvers Gap]

Sign me up for this.  Keep your fingers crossed.

BN heights east or north of Hawaii(maybe a Kona Loa low???), ridge out west, trough in the east  -NAO hooked into the EPO ridge, storm signal on the EC.  If you were to design a winter pattern for our area...that is it.  Most modeling has some iteration of this, but this is by far the best look.  Notice the four quadrants in the northern hemisphere of cold and warm - 4 blues and 4 yellow/orange.  Notice the HL blocking over North America.? Notice that Europe is also cold?  That map teleconnects well.  I don't really trust modeling right now, but this map doesn't have the craziness.  The ridge over the EC today retrogrades into the West.