Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Rd9108]

[MikeB_01]

16 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

So make a pick for your back yard total. I'm going with 14.5 IMBY

I'm with you. Give me 14

[colonel717]

Canadian RGEM did run yet? It is running and is 2 inches more so far than previous run.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, Burghblizz said:

Tongue closed in on 3k

3k should be in its wheelhouse tomorrow to start sniffing any warm noses.

[colonel717]

[TimB]

Gfs continues to hold serve.

[colonel717]

GFS a close 2nd to King Icon

[MikeB_01]

just out of curiosity, i started to look at the soundings of the nam to see what is going on in those areas of sleet or fzr. Can someone explain how the entire column can be relatively comfortable below freezeing ( -3°C) and yet it is still showing fzr? Any ideas?

[RitualOfTheTrout]

On 1/19/2026 at 9:47 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said:

No need to nickel and dime...

</Optimism> Once the weekend storm slows down a little more allowing a clean phase with that northern stream piece dropping into the dakotas, the storm will move back north hammering us with 16 inches. </Optimism>

This post seems to be ageing well. 

Given that, Ill stick to my original call for 16 imby.

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, TimB said:

Gfs continues to hold serve.

 

1 minute ago, colonel717 said:

GFS a close 2nd to King Icon

 

unbelievably consistent

[Mailman]

If anything, you have to admire the consistency.

[MikeB_01]

3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

just out of curiosity, i started to look at the soundings of the nam to see what is going on in those areas of sleet or fzr. Can someone explain how the entire column can be relatively comfortable below freezeing ( -3°C) and yet it is still showing fzr? Any ideas?

 

maybe because it is too dry in the DGZ? Just throwing some thoughts against the wall

[colonel717]

Looking at  current radar as compared to NAM at this time NAM has mix line 25 miles or so too north

[colonel717]

2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

maybe because it is too dry in the DGZ? Just throwing some thoughts against the wall

I don't know if the map shows as sleet despite there being only a few pellets of sleet. Maybe programmed to show as sleet any time no matter how much it really is sleeping even if only a few pellets. 

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, colonel717 said:

I don't know if the map shows as sleet despite there being only a few pellets of sleet. Maybe programmed to show as sleet any time no matter how much it really is sleeping even if only a few pellets. 

Could be... Any way, I view that as a positive.  The entire column stays below freezing all the way down to morgantown on that NAM - Even if it is showing up as a mix

[MikeB_01]

10:50 pm: KPIT 2° and a dewpt of -10°

[Rd9108]

Another one

[southpark]

5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

10:50 pm: KPIT 2° and a dewpt of -10°

Ouch.

[north pgh]

Zero currently at my house. 

[Burghblizz]

11 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

I don't know if the map shows as sleet despite there being only a few pellets of sleet. Maybe programmed to show as sleet any time no matter how much it really is sleeping even if only a few pellets. 

Chat GTP basically told me it’s “typical NAM behavior” and that it holds on to partially melted particles even if the warm layer was very shallow or gone.

Disclaimer: I’m posting this snippet  for entertainment purposes, and we know that the NAM does in many cases sniff this out. But could be something to this: 

• Ignore NAM sleet if:
  • 850–700 mb is ≤ –2°C
  • No >0°C layer ≥ ~30 mb
  • Other models (GFS is snow
• Use NAM for:
  • QPF placement
  • Thermal trends
  • Frontogenesis / banding signals
• But not for dominant p-type in marginal cold events.

[colonel717]

I think this may be most CMC has shown. For all AGC. 

[MikeB_01]

Chat GTP basically told me it’s “typical NAM behavior” and that it holds on to partially melted particles even if the warm layer was very shallow or gone.

Disclaimer: I’m posting this snippet  for entertainment purposes, and we know that the NAM does in many cases sniff this out. But could be something to this: 

• Ignore NAM sleet if:
  • 850–700 mb is ≤ –2°C
  • No >0°C layer ≥ ~30 mb
  • Other models (GFS is snow
• Use NAM for:
  • QPF placement
  • Thermal trends
  • Frontogenesis / banding signals
• But not for dominant p-type in marginal cold events.

Awesome use of AI!

So perhaps the NAM is not as north as we thought. More in line with the 3k


.

[colonel717]

UKie highest total so far.

 

[colonel717]

RAP it up...20 in almost same area as ICON

 

 

[Rd9108]

Just now, colonel717 said:

RAP it up...

 

Gets really warm but the qpf is insane.

[MikeB_01]

RAP it up...
 

.

[Burghblizz]

Forget what I said about not putting too much stock in the rapid refresh models out to 48…

[PghPirates27]

I’m in. Calling 12” in Evans city, I think I’m safe from mixing, at least for now. 

[Rd9108]

[colonel717]

With all the new and extra data we had the great results from all models. Good to see that extra sampling didn't go the other way.