Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[RitualOfTheTrout]

48 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

To be fair the GFS was getting laughed at for showing us getting 6 feet, not 6 inches, lol.

That run was insane. We got the WAA snows, then as the main storm approached the PV put down the hammer and kept it moving east while creating insane convergence right over us. I'd be happy with a quarter of that run.

Honestly that much snow would be scary, probably would lead to loss of life and property, but Id be lieing if I said a small part of me still doesn't have some morbid curiosity in seeing it happen. I guess that's the struggle hurricane enthusiasts deal with.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Something to track and the hope for. You never know. Maybe this is the big one?

*excuse my over optimism. I refuse to be negative this far out.

I'm with you, heck I would take a mix if it meant a solid thump of snow then the whole kitchen sink of precip types. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Averages start climbing again in a few days. Interestingly, under the old 1981-2010 normals, highs started climbing today (35.4F on the 17th, to 35.5F on the 18th).

[colonel717]

More snow showers breaking out. 

 

[colonel717]

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

To be fair the GFS was getting laughed at for showing us getting 6 feet, not 6 inches, lol.

Of course it was being laughed at for that but that wasn't the only big storm it was showing as it did on another runs. But it was as if because it showed that "stupid" storm all the others were laughed at and thrown out too since there wasn't agreement from EURO. Then last night EURO threw one out that was somewhat similar to what GFS was showing on few of it's runs. So maybe a "stupid" storm isn't as far fetched.  I certainly do not want a 6 ft storm as ROTT discussed the dangers with that large a storm, but give me a"stupid" 12-24 one. 

[colonel717]

I've been out in North Hills area near Ross Park mall, getting heavy squall. 

[colonel717]

Both AIs are good for us and EURO came north. 

 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

49 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Both AIs are good for us and EURO came north

If the models have that cold press right we are going to want this thing to go ape and amp up to max potential I think.

[colonel717]

52 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

If the models have that cold press right we are going to want this thing to go ape and amp up to max potential I think.

There are arguments for both sides. If the storm is a little quicker and can outrun the High should get it north. Per the latest EURO the storm develops around hour 120. What is crazy is how the storm looks at hour 144, the temp here is 5 degree. Can you recall getting snow at that temp. I cannot. Coldest I can remember is snowing in teens. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, colonel717 said:

There are arguments for both sides. If the storm is a little quicker and can outrun the High should get it north. Per the latest EURO the storm develops around hour 120. What is crazy is how the storm looks at hour 144, the temp here is 5 degree. Can you recall getting snow at that temp. I cannot. Coldest I can remember is snowing in teens. 

That's a good point, if the timing changes its anyone's game.

I can't think of any storm that cold with meaningful qpf that's for sure. 

[Burghblizz]

2 hours ago, colonel717 said:

There are arguments for both sides. If the storm is a little quicker and can outrun the High should get it north. Per the latest EURO the storm develops around hour 120. What is crazy is how the storm looks at hour 144, the temp here is 5 degree. Can you recall getting snow at that temp. I cannot. Coldest I can remember is snowing in teens. 

I feel like we got like 1-2” in single digits in December of (I think) ‘22. It was pretty impactful on the roads.

[Rd9108]

EURO AI

Just a miss as far as bullseye but thats still 6-10 of cold smoke 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Eyeballing, but it looks like close to an inch of snow last night. Didn’t realize it was supposed to snow.

[Rd9108]

Cautiously optimistic about the next big chance. Its Ops vs AI models right now. Still a lot of time and details to hammer out 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Nice morning, light snow and cold. Could be some heavier snow showers later today per NWS.

Not sure what to make of the weekend storm. I think I'd rather flirt with too far NW than a miss to the south especially given most of our snow this season has been the lighter qpf variety. The AI models generally look good, but if we are looking at some anomalously setup they have not been trained on that could explain why they are further north right now.

Focus for me is on the shortwave and hope it ejects in one piece, then timing of the PV and the cold. 

 

[colonel717]

The UKie is nice but it's such a terrible model. 

[colonel717]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Eyeballing, but it looks like close to an inch of snow last night. Didn’t realize it was supposed to snow.

Nice. Barely a dusting here. 

[Burghblizz]

Several nice bands drifting in from the west

[Rd9108]

My brother is already asking me about a snow storm this weekend already. I hate social media....

[TimB]

9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

My brother is already asking me about a snow storm this weekend already. I hate social media....

Doesn’t help that the iPhone weather app is also showing 15-18” of snow this weekend.

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, TimB said:

Doesn’t help that the iPhone weather app is also showing 15-18” of snow this weekend.

Thats dumb. There's like zero models that actually show that. AIs show a decent hit but other than that the operationals are all south.

[colonel717]

Getting very dark here looks like nice long squall close by.

AI GFS big shift south. 

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, colonel717 said:

Getting very dark here looks like nice long squall close by.

AI GFS big shift south. 

Suppression is my concern with this storm. Thats some cold air coming in. Still plenty of time for changes 

[Mailman]

Oh Canada.

[Rd9108]

[north pgh]

3 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Oh Canada.

[colonel717]

6 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Oh Canada.

Canadian does have better score of late than GFS which is last 

[MikeB_01]

Lock it in


.

[colonel717]

Now keep UKie in our camp... 

Heavy Snow here now so enjoying this and building the base.