Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Mailman]

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Widespread snow this afternoon into Sunday morning
- Lake effect snow bands expected Sunday into early Monday
- Cold Weather Advisory Sunday/Sunday night for east Tucker
-----------------------------------------------------------

Confidence in 6+ inches of snowfall has increased along a line
roughly from Muskingum (Zanesville) through Allegheny
(Pittsburgh) that has prompted an upgrade to Winter Storm
Warning for those areas. Likewise, confidence in 6+ inches of
snowfall, especially lake effect snowfall in bands on Sunday, 
has prompted an upgrade to Lake Effect Warning for Mercer and
Venango counties. All other hazards and impacts remain similar
to previous forecasts.

The near term involves two sources for impactful snow across the
region. The first is a clipper that will cross the Ohio Valley
today into tonight, bringing widespread snowfall and highest
amounts south of Pittsburgh and in the Laurels/Allegheny Mtns.
The second is banded lake effect snow taking over early Sunday in
cold northwesterly flow off the lake, lingering into early 
Monday. The combination will bring impactful snow to the entire 
region, though some will see higher impacts than others.

Snow has already begun across central/eastern Ohio early this 
afternoon, though this has generally been light. Better
accumulation rates and moderate to heavy snowfall is expected
later this afternoon and evening, continuing through roughly
midnight, with strengthening mid-level frontogenesis across the
I-70 corridor. Heaviest snowfall will be south of Pittsburgh and
across the Laurels/Allegheny Mtns. Embedded bands of snow will
create hazardous travel conditions with reduced visibility and
rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour, also locally enhancing snowfall
totals. 

Totals for the Pittsburgh metro range from 4-5" in
northern Allegheny/southern Butler up to 6-7" across southern
Allegheny into western Westmoreland county. A widespread 5-8"
inches is expected for lowland areas inside the Winter Storm
Warning, with a fairly consistent 8-12" for the
Laurels/Allegheny Mtns. Lake effect snow banding Sunday/Sunday
night will vary over time, but latest CAMs continue to
concentrate the axis across Mercer/Venango counties where 6-8
inches is possible in some areas. Better lake effect
accumulation may extend farther south, but confidence in this is
low.

There is high confidence in all snow for this event, given the
cold profiles and saturated, deep DGZ. Snow to liquid ratios 
are expected to be near 20:1 tonight and Sunday, making for a
very dry, powdery snow. One minor concern: initial snowfall 
today may melt on surfaces hovering just above freezing. This 
will quickly freeze tonight as temperatures plunge.

This provides a segue into the last hazard: cold temperatures.
Temps will drop off quickly tonight, falling into the teens and
single digits by sunrise Sunday. With only ~10 degree warmup by
Sunday afternoon, highs will struggle to make it out of the
teens in most locations on Sunday. This, combined with gusty
winds to around 30 mph will create very cold single and negative
single digit wind chills tonight through early Monday. A Cold
Weather Advisory is in effect for eastern Tucker through Monday
morning where wind chills of -15 to -20F are expected. 

[MikeB_01]

Flakes have started here in Bethel.

Can confirm as well. Snowing on the AGC /Wash county border. Good to see you in here @colonel717


.

[Mailman]

It has begun.

[colonel717]

1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

Can confirm as well. Snowing on the AGC /Wash county border. Good to see you in here @colonel717


.

Thanks. Decided to come back after staying away several years due to a couple posters...

Looks like heavy band heading to Mt Lebo.

[colonel717]

Moderate to heavy snow here. Nice heavy band from South Fayette to South Park

[Burghblizz]

Light steady snow had begun. Pretty efficient though in sticking to everything. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

19 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Thanks. Decided to come back after staying away several years due to a couple posters...

Looks like heavy band heading to Mt Lebo.

Glad you are back!

[RitualOfTheTrout]

8 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Moderate to heavy snow here. Nice heavy band from South Fayette to South Park

Anyone in that band and to the South (outside higher elevations) has the best shot at warning criteria. 

Some flurries starting to fall here. Looks like light snow is on the door step.

[colonel717]

Slowed down a little. Temps too warm initially to stick on roads here. 33 to start.

[TheClimateChanger]

Rare winter storm warning for our area:

 

[Ahoff]

This is nice that this seems to be one of the rare systems that trends better and better toward the start.  Let's hope we hit those trends.

[north pgh]

Snowing moderately in Ross. Have to head downtown tonight. It should be an interesting drive home tonight around 10:00 ☃️

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Glad we are getting some of this during the daylight hours too. 

[colonel717]

3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Glad we are getting some of this during the daylight hours too. 

I stayed up for that last one. Very glad this one isn't overnight.

First snow plow just came through. Has not let up much. Flakes gotten smaller. Nearing half inch.

[colonel717]

[Rd9108]

1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

Thanks. Decided to come back after staying away several years due to a couple posters...

Looks like heavy band heading to Mt Lebo.

Hopefully I wasnt one of them. Im a changed man now. I swear. 

[colonel717]

2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Hopefully I wasnt one of them. Im a changed man now. I swear. 

Ha ha not you...Although you had your moments. 

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, colonel717 said:

Ha ha not you...Although you had your moments. 

I definitely did. I dont get upset as much about digital snow now. Tbh id rather be golfing 

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

Welcome back for sure! Enjoy the snow friends!

[blackngoldrules]

Yeah, I'm glad this started a little early. Give us a little daylight snow to watch. Sitting here watching the snow fall, watching the Pens game, my tree lit up. This is what it's all about!

[colonel717]

Not liking the look of the radar. Lots of dry air working in to the west. Hopefully that all fills in. Have around an inch so far.

[Burghblizz]

Sucks that there isn’t a very active thread anymore for Ohio. Would like to get some real time updates on conditions.

(on the other hand - might not be a great sign that it isn’t super active with snow falling)

[colonel717]

I really underestimated how much I had. Just measured 3 spots all about 2 inches.

[MikeB_01]

I really underestimated how much I had. Just measured 3 spots all about 2 inches.

I’m going to head out here pretty soon to get an update. From my window looks to be maybe 1.5”. But it’s an awesome look outside. Can’t wait for tonight when the neighborhood turns on the lights


.

[colonel717]

I just shoveled. Im approaching 3 now. 

[Rd9108]

BTW seen this on x HRRR vs Actual. Also where are you at Colonel?

 

[Rd9108]

Nvm Bethel

 

[colonel717]

11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Nvm Bethel

 

You can see this huge dry slot near Zanesville 

[colonel717]

Dry air making in roads.

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Dry air making in roads.

See how it plays out