Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Rd9108]

14 hours ago, TimB said:

The streak continues…

Dammit now we have to hear about how its never gonna snow again until it snows again....

[TimB]

18 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Dammit now we have to hear about how its never gonna snow again until it snows again....

No one, including myself is complaining about a solid advisory level event on the second day of meteorological winter to kick off the season. We’ll still have our chances this season to break the streak, hopefully.

[TimB]

Heard on the radio that we could set a daily record low tonight. Granted the record (12) is easily the softest December record on the books, as the 5th is the only day that has never reached single digits.

[Rd9108]

Well if you wanna get excited about a possibly very winter like pattern look no further than the MJO plots. 

Not too often you see the MJO basically just stuck in P8 for a month ++

 

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

6 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Well if you wanna get excited about a possibly very winter like pattern look no further than the MJO plots. 

Not too often you see the MJO basically just stuck in P8 for a month ++

 

Yesssssssssss best news ever 

[Ahoff]

8 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Well if you wanna get excited about a possibly very winter like pattern look no further than the MJO plots. 

Not too often you see the MJO basically just stuck in P8 for a month ++

 

8, 1, and 2 are all good ones right?

 

[Rd9108]

9 hours ago, Ahoff said:

8, 1, and 2 are all good ones right?

 

Usually yes 

[TheClimateChanger]

Let's hope the MJO loses its MOJO as we head into deep winter, and dumps all of its load in December a la 1989-1990.

[Mailman]

Clipper time incoming?  Not mad about that.  They usually overperform around here.

[Ahoff]

21 hours ago, Mailman said:

Clipper time incoming?  Not mad about that.  They usually overperform around here.

For tomorrow?  Are we actually getting something?  I thought it was heading into Virginia.

[jwilson]

Some flizzard yesterday, but now it's looking like the next discrete event is Saturday into Sunday.  Evolution looks pretty similar to the one on the 2nd.  Another quick hitting 2-4" event.

Initially, it looks a little colder than the last system, so perhaps there's less concern for mixing in the southern areas.  Fairly decent agreement amongst the major models for a synoptic event at this range, though.

The smaller details will have to get worked out later.

[Rd9108]

Tomorrow. Will 100% be nowcasting 

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Tomorrow. Will 100% be nowcasting 

Mid 30s sfc temps should preclude much if any accumulation regardless of p-type.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Mid 30s sfc temps should preclude much if any accumulation regardless of p-type.

Your probably right for the most part, but it was 11 degrees here this morning, then clouds moved in before any real sun could warm surfaces up. If we get a thump in the early morning hours, even if temps are marginal, it should have no problem accumulating especially on any subfreezing surfaces.

Looks like more shots at some snow this weekend. Hopefully we can score a couple more events in the next 10 days, as it looks like the pattern is going to break down around Christmas. Who knows if it will actually happen that way or for how long, but ensembles are coming into agreement some sort of relaxation may be on the way. NWS seems to be biting onto this possibility as well.

Confidence is increasing in a several day period where we have
high temperatures some 15-20 degrees below average in the cP
airmass through the weekend with highs in the 20s and lows in
the teens or single digits. Cold air being entrenched across
the region means any additional disturbances are likely to
produce snow as the prevailing precip type areawide. While the
overall pattern appears messy and ensembles are clearly
struggling to agree on timing and intensity of any given wave,
confidence is increase in at least one more shot at snowfall
over the weekend before long term guidance finally has the
eastern Canadian longwave trough breaking down. Stay tuned for
more details as we get closer and confidence increases.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Tomorrow. Will 100% be nowcasting 

Afternoon update from the NWS agrees. Tomorrow could be an interesting day if we manage to stay a few degrees cooler.

Where the most tricky part of the forecast comes in is actually for
the lower elevations of eastern OH and southwestern PA. 12z CAMs
have taken on a slightly colder solution as the shield of precip
arrives before sunrise and an enhanced push in the mid-morning
hours. Forecast soundings show a very deep saturated layer well
through and above the DGZ with strong synoptic forcing. Most of the
entire profile is below freezing save the lowest few hundred feet
where surface temperatures sit a degree or two above freezing.
Should this be the case, a wet and cold rain will be the result.
However, if surface temps are slightly overdone by the CAMs and/or
dynamics cool the profile further than advertised, there is a
conditional threat for a thump of heavy, wet snow to impact a good
portion of southwest Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, and the panhandle
of West Virginia in the early morning to early afternoon hours. This
may be a situation in which we have to see the whites of its eyes in
the morning before knowing how it exactly will play out, but the
worst case scenario could be a couple inches of accumulation
with impacts to the morning commute.

Finally, by the afternoon hours, a transition to convective snow
showers with continued upslope in the ridges is likely as the
stronger synoptic forcing moves east. Profiles suggest
sufficient saturation through the DGZ remaining with steepening
lapse rates in a low-level cold advection regime. Localized
snow bands could produce another burst of accumulation and
visibility reduction for the afternoon commute.

Beyond the precipitation, tight surface gradients will foster gusty
wind between 30-40 mph in the afternoon in the lower elevations,
with 40-50 mph gusts possible in the ridges and peak gusts as high
as 60 mph possible in the highest ridges of eastern Tucker County,
WV.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Afternoon update from the NWS agrees. Tomorrow could be an interesting day if we manage to stay a few degrees cooler.

Where the most tricky part of the forecast comes in is actually for
the lower elevations of eastern OH and southwestern PA. 12z CAMs
have taken on a slightly colder solution as the shield of precip
arrives before sunrise and an enhanced push in the mid-morning
hours. Forecast soundings show a very deep saturated layer well
through and above the DGZ with strong synoptic forcing. Most of the
entire profile is below freezing save the lowest few hundred feet
where surface temperatures sit a degree or two above freezing.
Should this be the case, a wet and cold rain will be the result.
However, if surface temps are slightly overdone by the CAMs and/or
dynamics cool the profile further than advertised, there is a
conditional threat for a thump of heavy, wet snow to impact a good
portion of southwest Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, and the panhandle
of West Virginia in the early morning to early afternoon hours. This
may be a situation in which we have to see the whites of its eyes in
the morning before knowing how it exactly will play out, but the
worst case scenario could be a couple inches of accumulation
with impacts to the morning commute.

Finally, by the afternoon hours, a transition to convective snow
showers with continued upslope in the ridges is likely as the
stronger synoptic forcing moves east. Profiles suggest
sufficient saturation through the DGZ remaining with steepening
lapse rates in a low-level cold advection regime. Localized
snow bands could produce another burst of accumulation and
visibility reduction for the afternoon commute.

Beyond the precipitation, tight surface gradients will foster gusty
wind between 30-40 mph in the afternoon in the lower elevations,
with 40-50 mph gusts possible in the ridges and peak gusts as high
as 60 mph possible in the highest ridges of eastern Tucker County,
WV.

 

Wow. A couple inches of wet snow timed for morning commute would be quite the surprise!