December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[Carvers Gap]

I don't have a lot of time this morning.  A trend worth watching...overnight and morning deterministic runs (CMC, Canadian para, 6z AIFS, and 0z Euro) continue to erode the warmup.  That doesn't mean we won't see warm air masses, but go look for yourself.  They have, even the gfs, found the Dec 20th cold front.  This really looks like more of a back-and-forth pattern where warmth surges, cold erodes it quickly due to the cold source, and wash/rinse/repeat.

Ensembles aren't there yet, but at this range...they will wash out any trends.

[Golf757075]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don't have a lot of time this morning.  A trend worth watching...overnight and morning deterministic runs (CMC, Canadian para, 6z AIFS, and 0z Euro) continue to erode the warmup.  That doesn't mean we won't see warm air masses, but go look for yourself.  They have, even the gfs, found the Dec 20th cold front.  This really looks like more of a back-and-forth pattern where warmth surges, cold erodes it quickly due to the cold source, and wash/rinse/repeat.

Ensembles aren't there yet, but at this range...they will wash out any trends.

Carver, we say it all the time. Interesting winter so far. Imo, no winter is the same. Yall have at least seen some snow. We haven't lol.

[*Flash*]

Leaving this as more of an open-ended question. Are decadal warming patterns being over integrated into seasonal outlooks and extended D14-30 forecast windows? The notion pops up every October for me when I review NOAA's winter outlook and note how so much of the country is plastered in orange and red. Not a hypothesis per se, but a suspicion about warm biases in the micro overly influenced by climate progression at large. Probably way more case by case then I'm making it, granted, the way my memory interlocks with recent experiences, it seems more torch previews have needed scale backs than the other way around. 

[Golf757075]

4 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Leaving this as more of an open-ended question. Are decadal warming patterns being over integrated into seasonal outlooks and extended D14-30 forecast windows? The notion pops up every October for me when I review NOAA's winter outlook and note how so much of the country is plastered in orange and red. Not a hypothesis per se, but a suspicion about warm biases in the micro overly influenced by climate progression at large. Probably way more case by case then I'm making it. Seems this decade there have been more torch previews that have had to be scaled back than the other way around. 

Imo, no doubt climate change related. When you would see a winter forecast from noaa back in the 90s or 2000s, it would show more blue further south and east. Now, not so much lol. Where we are on the map, it will be difficult no matter what due to our geographical location. 

[Carvers Gap]

36 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

Carver, we say it all the time. Interesting winter so far. Imo, no winter is the same. Yall have at least seen some snow. We haven't lol.

I really think it has been a while since we have had a cold source like this.  Models/people are trying to adjust.

[Golf757075]

15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I really think it has been a while since we have had a cold source like this.  Models/people are trying to adjust.

I agree to our nw over Alaska and nw Canada it has been cold. Need and want a mechanism to bring it more south and west. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Leaving this as more of an open-ended question. Are decadal warming patterns being over integrated into seasonal outlooks and extended D14-30 forecast windows? The notion pops up every October for me when I review NOAA's winter outlook and note how so much of the country is plastered in orange and red. Not a hypothesis per se, but a suspicion about warm biases in the micro overly influenced by climate progression at large. Probably way more case by case then I'm making it, granted, the way my memory interlocks with recent experiences, it seems more torch previews have needed scale backs than the other way around. 

Good,valid point. Post this in the Main Forum and you'll have many going Nuts over there ; particularly the Warmanista and GW brainwashed One's. They'd probably justify the Model's doing that. Fact is, GW is real to a degree but, the Cause and Forecasted Rate is off. Not to say your Post is about GW, just giving an Opinion on why you're right on your Suspicion.

[tnweathernut]

Don’t have a ton of time (ever anymore it seems), but I agree with Jax………. We really need the Rex like block over the Aleutians to be less “rexy”.  Will be like pulling teeth to keep the bulk of cold from going west with that look.

[Carvers Gap]

The warm-up has been pushed back past the 20th as most models now see a cold front(another strong one) around the then.  Will there be another prior to Christmas and after the 20th?  Maybe.  This pattern will have some anomalous warm days, but will also have some anomalous cold days.  It may average out warmer, but that is not a full on torch on deterministic runs.  It seems like each suite is wiping out more warmth.  If it were the other way around and I was hoping for a flip to cold...I might be questioning whether it could hold on.....

[Daniel Boone]

16 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Don’t have a ton of time (ever anymore it seems), but I agree with Jax………. We really need the Rex like block over the Aleutians to be less “rexy”.  Will be like pulling teeth to keep the bulk of cold from going west with that look.

Models have been showing that Block shifting Eastward to being centered over Alaska. I made a post recently that we needed that to happen and get rid of any GOA Low. If that doesn't happen, yeah Trough should drop in the West.

There have been rare times as I'm sure you know, where other Variables altered the typical outcome of Aleutian Ridge equates to western Trough however. 

Carvers can better describe what looks be be transpiring and maybe touch on those Variable's. I'm just too tired and sick to present everything myself. Carvers is much better than I am and a Master at that. 

[Carvers Gap]

The CPC MJO plots, and this is not meant to be contentious, are in phase 8(has never left).  They are parked there.  Something is gonna have to give...either warm modeling or incorrect/correct MJO plots.

Please answer --> Someone remind me...the green is the MJO convection, right?  If so, mid Jan could be freaking cold.  If green is suppressed convection....

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Models have been showing that Block shifting Eastward to being centered over Alaska. I made a post recently that we needed that to happen and get rid of any GOA Low. If that doesn't happen, yeah Trough should drop in the West.

There have been rare times as I'm sure you know, where other Variables altered the typical outcome of Aleutian Ridge equates to western Trough however. 

Carvers can better describe what looks be be transpiring and maybe touch on those Variable's. I'm just too tired and sick to present everything myself. Carvers is much better than I am and a Master at that. 

I think modeling has been suffering from really bad feedback(infinite loops).  The other thing is that our cold source this season is insanely cold.  We have seen years where 500 maps don't match the surface, and this might be one of them again.

[Carvers Gap]

I really hate having to dig through MJO data - yuck.  Anyway, I read the MJO report from the 8th by CPC.  So, I think I know how to read the following map.

The orange is suppressed convection.  Now, it is important to remember there is almost always convection at this time of year over the MC, and I think that is a mistake some(not in this forum!) are making.  You can have convection, but it be suppressed IMHO.  That simply means less than the norm.  I don't "think" phase 8 and phase 5 have a one-size-fits all scale for convection.  I would guess the MC has more convection, ie it could still have convection but less than the norm.  The enhanced(more than normal) convection is blue...and that is phase 8.  It isn't moving.  In fact, you can see some convection firing in east Africa which is 1-2. 

What I want to know on the CHI plot is which color is enhanced and which is suppressed.  I need to get that straightened out so that I can compare the two.  @jaxjagman

[Matthew70]

44 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Models have been showing that Block shifting Eastward to being centered over Alaska. I made a post recently that we needed that to happen and get rid of any GOA Low. If that doesn't happen, yeah Trough should drop in the West.

There have been rare times as I'm sure you know, where other Variables altered the typical outcome of Aleutian Ridge equates to western Trough however. 

Carvers can better describe what looks be be transpiring and maybe touch on those Variable's. I'm just too tired and sick to present everything myself. Carvers is much better than I am and a Master at that. 

Get to feeling better soon.

[Daniel Boone]

12 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Get to feeling better soon.

Thanks brother !

[jaxjagman]

57 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I really hate having to dig through MJO data - yuck.  Anyway, I read the MJO report from the 8th by CPC.  So, I think I know how to read the following map.

The orange is suppressed convection.  Now, it is important to remember there is almost always convection at this time of year over the MC, and I think that is a mistake some(not in this forum!) are making.  You can have convection, but it be suppressed IMHO.  That simply means less than the norm.  I don't "think" phase 8 and phase 5 have a one-size-fits all scale for convection.  I would guess the MC has more convection, ie it could still have convection but less than the norm.  The enhanced(more than normal) convection is blue...and that is phase 8.  It isn't moving.  In fact, you can see some convection firing in east Africa which is 1-2. 

What I want to know on the CHI plot is which color is enhanced and which is suppressed.  I need to get that straightened out so that I can compare the two.  @jaxjagman

The MJO is at the bullseye of the COD today,but whats been happpening the last couple  is semmingly whats going on into the WP and MC from Rossby/Kelvin Waves,just really getting destructive interference,RRMS which show it climbing back out into the NH,but its already there

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

The MJO is at the bullseye of the COD today,but whats been happpening the last couple  is semmingly whats going on into the WP and MCRossby/Kelvin Waves,just really getting destructive interference,RRMS which show it climbing back out into the NH,but its already there

The CFS forecast has been a lot different than any other MJO forecast.  Is it an outlier, but also correct?

[jaxjagman]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The CFS forecast has been a lot different than any other MJO forecast.  Is it an outlier, but also correct?

More than likely but its correcting itself recently on the RMMS,if you noticed a couple days ago its RMMS showed moving into the MC back into the NH in about 10 days doing basically the cycle,kinda fast dont ya think

[jaxjagman]

35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The CFS forecast has been a lot different than any other MJO forecast.  Is it an outlier, but also correct?

Why i prefer to use the JMA when looking at the RMMS,screw that 14 day crap,you can even see Kelvin is going to disrpupt the signal once again around the mid month into the NH