December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[Carvers Gap]

I don't have a lot of time this morning.  A trend worth watching...overnight and morning deterministic runs (CMC, Canadian para, 6z AIFS, and 0z Euro) continue to erode the warmup.  That doesn't mean we won't see warm air masses, but go look for yourself.  They have, even the gfs, found the Dec 20th cold front.  This really looks like more of a back-and-forth pattern where warmth surges, cold erodes it quickly due to the cold source, and wash/rinse/repeat.

Ensembles aren't there yet, but at this range...they will wash out any trends.

[Golf757075]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don't have a lot of time this morning.  A trend worth watching...overnight and morning deterministic runs (CMC, Canadian para, 6z AIFS, and 0z Euro) continue to erode the warmup.  That doesn't mean we won't see warm air masses, but go look for yourself.  They have, even the gfs, found the Dec 20th cold front.  This really looks like more of a back-and-forth pattern where warmth surges, cold erodes it quickly due to the cold source, and wash/rinse/repeat.

Ensembles aren't there yet, but at this range...they will wash out any trends.

Carver, we say it all the time. Interesting winter so far. Imo, no winter is the same. Yall have at least seen some snow. We haven't lol.

[*Flash*]

Leaving this as more of an open-ended question. Are decadal warming patterns being over integrated into seasonal outlooks and extended D14-30 forecast windows? The notion pops up every October for me when I review NOAA's winter outlook and note how so much of the country is plastered in orange and red. Not a hypothesis per se, but a suspicion about warm biases in the micro overly influenced by climate progression at large. Probably way more case by case then I'm making it, granted, the way my memory interlocks with recent experiences, it seems more torch previews have needed scale backs than the other way around. 

[Golf757075]

4 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Leaving this as more of an open-ended question. Are decadal warming patterns being over integrated into seasonal outlooks and extended D14-30 forecast windows? The notion pops up every October for me when I review NOAA's winter outlook and note how so much of the country is plastered in orange and red. Not a hypothesis per se, but a suspicion about warm biases in the micro overly influenced by climate progression at large. Probably way more case by case then I'm making it. Seems this decade there have been more torch previews that have had to be scaled back than the other way around. 

Imo, no doubt climate change related. When you would see a winter forecast from noaa back in the 90s or 2000s, it would show more blue further south and east. Now, not so much lol. Where we are on the map, it will be difficult no matter what due to our geographical location. 

[Carvers Gap]

36 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

Carver, we say it all the time. Interesting winter so far. Imo, no winter is the same. Yall have at least seen some snow. We haven't lol.

I really think it has been a while since we have had a cold source like this.  Models/people are trying to adjust.

[Golf757075]

15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I really think it has been a while since we have had a cold source like this.  Models/people are trying to adjust.

I agree to our nw over Alaska and nw Canada it has been cold. Need and want a mechanism to bring it more south and west.