MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[RocketWX]

Here is the latest NBM run. Still throwing out hefty totals for pretty much everyone here. Not shocking since models have yet to back down on totals. 

[stormdragonwx]

50 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

12Z NAM

 

Man that cutoff is getting dangerously close to me here. Though it seems the NAM is the outlier here. But 8 times out of 10 I have noticed the WAA or dry slot kills it on the day of it seems. I think the year before last was a great example of it.

[The Ole Bucket]

12Z GFS running and seems really similar to last run

[The Ole Bucket]

 

[StormChazer]

46 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Man that cutoff is getting dangerously close to me here. Though it seems the NAM is the outlier here. But 8 times out of 10 I have noticed the WAA or dry slot kills it on the day of it seems. I think the year before last was a great example of it.

Luckily, this type of setup doesn't really give us a dry slot issue, so that's good news.

[MUWX]

Little rock warning leaves open the possibility of some sleet contamination for northern arkansas. Not sure its going to be a big deal, but definitely something to watch as we get closer. 

SGF upgraded and also leaves open the possibility of some sleet in their southern most counties. Seems like the NWS is really buying the stronger warm nose.