MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[RocketWX]

Here is the latest NBM run. Still throwing out hefty totals for pretty much everyone here. Not shocking since models have yet to back down on totals. 

[stormdragonwx]

50 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

12Z NAM

 

Man that cutoff is getting dangerously close to me here. Though it seems the NAM is the outlier here. But 8 times out of 10 I have noticed the WAA or dry slot kills it on the day of it seems. I think the year before last was a great example of it.

[The Ole Bucket]

12Z GFS running and seems really similar to last run

[The Ole Bucket]

 

[StormChazer]

46 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Man that cutoff is getting dangerously close to me here. Though it seems the NAM is the outlier here. But 8 times out of 10 I have noticed the WAA or dry slot kills it on the day of it seems. I think the year before last was a great example of it.

Luckily, this type of setup doesn't really give us a dry slot issue, so that's good news.

[MUWX]

Little rock warning leaves open the possibility of some sleet contamination for northern arkansas. Not sure its going to be a big deal, but definitely something to watch as we get closer. 

SGF upgraded and also leaves open the possibility of some sleet in their southern most counties. Seems like the NWS is really buying the stronger warm nose. 

[JoMo]

12 Euro AIFS isn't too different from the 00z run. Maybe just a hair farther north with highest snow precip amounts. 

[The Waterboy]

10 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12 Euro AIFS isn't too different from the 00z run. Maybe just a hair farther north with highest snow precip amounts. 

Even the 10:1 ratio map looks awesome!  

[MUWX]

Its wild to me that so many models are still kicking out roughly 1" of QPF and were only 36 hours out from onset. I really thought those would start to come down, but so far, QPF is really holding steady. 

[JoMo]

12z Euro is pushing the 700 MB warm nose farther north up into most of Arkansas this run. Excellent run for Tulsa and much of OK this run.

[StormChazer]

36 hours out from the onset of the bulk of this storm and the Euro is still pumping out these numbers...

[stormdragonwx]

Tulsa becoming more generous on the DSP page.

[Poimen]

I'm pulling for you guys to my south. Best of luck to all of you. 

[StormChazer]

This is the HRRR, second wave hasn't even happened yet.

 

[The Ole Bucket]

NWS STL finally getting fully onboard..

 

[JoMo]

 1:32 PM Official forecast hazardous outlook graphic shows 7-14" with areas of 8-15" in nearly every part of SGF's territory. Now time for the 18z NAM to screw it up somehow. 

EDIT: 18z NAM going to the first round a bit farther north again due to the strong WAA with sleet/mixing becoming an issue in northern Arkansas and Oklahoma. 

[MUWX]

32 minutes ago, JoMo said:

 1:32 PM Official forecast hazardous outlook graphic shows 7-14" with areas of 8-15" in nearly every part of SGF's territory. Now time for the 18z NAM to screw it up somehow. 

EDIT: 18z NAM going to the first round a bit farther north again due to the strong WAA with sleet/mixing becoming an issue in northern Arkansas. 

Just north of that line is going to get hammered from wave 1, with another substantial wave to go. Is someone really going to see 20" out of this? 

[The Ole Bucket]

A perfect run showing how the NAM is always wetter and warmer than what verifies. Classic stuff.

[JoMo]

10 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Just north of that line is going to get hammered from wave 1, with another substantial wave to go. Is someone really going to see 20" out of this? 

Some 20-22" Kuchera amounts, Springfield down to Benton county, AR. 

[ouamber]

UGH... I DID NOT LIKE THAT NAM RUN FOR TULSA! 

[StormChazer]

12 minutes ago, ouamber said:

UGH... I DID NOT LIKE THAT NAM RUN FOR TULSA! 

I just truly don't see that verifying, I think the NAM has a warm bias and the sleet stays 1 or 2 counties south of Tulsa.

THe high resolution actually keeps the sleet south(2nd wave yet to occur on this run).

[ouamber]

Ok, thanks! I'm taking a deep breath! I've been soooo burned here in Tulsa for the last several years!! The "Donut Holes" around the metro made me very bitter and skeptical of all models! LOL Even Travis didn't understand it!! 

[JoMo]

18z ICON and RDPS still look good so it might just be the NAM doing it's NAM thing. That one is a real wildcard. 

[StormChazer]

11 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Ok, thanks! I'm taking a deep breath! I've been soooo burned here in Tulsa for the last several years!! The "Donut Holes" around the metro made me very bitter and skeptical of all models! LOL Even Travis didn't understand it!! 

This will forever be the most frustrating thing I have ever experienced as a snow lover. I'll never forget I had a work function that lasted 3 days, and we flew in our team from Mexico, and this one lady had never seen snow. I GUARANTEED her she would get to see some, and we proceeded to get the infamous donut hole. Beyond upset...

BUT, this is a system that no matter what, we are getting 5-6 inches out of, even in the most bust type of situation.

[MUWX]

SGF is now explicitly calling out the that several models are showing totals >14", they have certainly become much more bullish today. 

[RocketWX]

My main concern (possible failure mode) here in Wichita, is how these two waves impact us. The first piece of energy kicks out Friday night and will initially need to saturate dry air. How long does that take and how impactful is this initial wave? Should we underperform, that leaves us with the 2nd wave, (the ejection of the main ULL) which could miss us to the South and East. By failure mode I mean, failing to hit the upper echelon of some of modeled totals. Think we're in for a solid Warning criteria snow regardless. Getting closer to kicking this thing off! 

[MUWX]

For the first time in a while, we have a pretty big step down on the GFS. Everything else still seems on board but that was a not insignificant step back on the GFS.

[StormChazer]

[rockchalk83]

21 minutes ago, MUWX said:

For the first time in a while, we have a pretty big step down on the GFS. Everything else still seems on board but that was a not insignificant step back on the GFS.

There was? 

The 18z still pumped out close to one foot here in Kansas: 

[The Waterboy]

18z Ukie stayed pretty steady.  Pivotal Weather snow map is only at 10:1 ratio with 12+” throughout a large area of OK/AR.  It would be very impressive if we had the Kuchera.