RocketWX Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Here is the latest NBM run. Still throwing out hefty totals for pretty much everyone here. Not shocking since models have yet to back down on totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 50 minutes ago, StormChazer said: 12Z NAM Man that cutoff is getting dangerously close to me here. Though it seems the NAM is the outlier here. But 8 times out of 10 I have noticed the WAA or dry slot kills it on the day of it seems. I think the year before last was a great example of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 12Z GFS running and seems really similar to last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 46 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: Man that cutoff is getting dangerously close to me here. Though it seems the NAM is the outlier here. But 8 times out of 10 I have noticed the WAA or dry slot kills it on the day of it seems. I think the year before last was a great example of it. Luckily, this type of setup doesn't really give us a dry slot issue, so that's good news. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Little rock warning leaves open the possibility of some sleet contamination for northern arkansas. Not sure its going to be a big deal, but definitely something to watch as we get closer. SGF upgraded and also leaves open the possibility of some sleet in their southern most counties. Seems like the NWS is really buying the stronger warm nose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12 Euro AIFS isn't too different from the 00z run. Maybe just a hair farther north with highest snow precip amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 10 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12 Euro AIFS isn't too different from the 00z run. Maybe just a hair farther north with highest snow precip amounts. Even the 10:1 ratio map looks awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Its wild to me that so many models are still kicking out roughly 1" of QPF and were only 36 hours out from onset. I really thought those would start to come down, but so far, QPF is really holding steady. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12z Euro is pushing the 700 MB warm nose farther north up into most of Arkansas this run. Excellent run for Tulsa and much of OK this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 36 hours out from the onset of the bulk of this storm and the Euro is still pumping out these numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago Tulsa becoming more generous on the DSP page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I'm pulling for you guys to my south. Best of luck to all of you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This is the HRRR, second wave hasn't even happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NWS STL finally getting fully onboard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1:32 PM Official forecast hazardous outlook graphic shows 7-14" with areas of 8-15" in nearly every part of SGF's territory. Now time for the 18z NAM to screw it up somehow. EDIT: 18z NAM going to the first round a bit farther north again due to the strong WAA with sleet/mixing becoming an issue in northern Arkansas and Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 32 minutes ago, JoMo said: 1:32 PM Official forecast hazardous outlook graphic shows 7-14" with areas of 8-15" in nearly every part of SGF's territory. Now time for the 18z NAM to screw it up somehow. EDIT: 18z NAM going to the first round a bit farther north again due to the strong WAA with sleet/mixing becoming an issue in northern Arkansas. Just north of that line is going to get hammered from wave 1, with another substantial wave to go. Is someone really going to see 20" out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago A perfect run showing how the NAM is always wetter and warmer than what verifies. Classic stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted 51 minutes ago Share Posted 51 minutes ago 10 minutes ago, MUWX said: Just north of that line is going to get hammered from wave 1, with another substantial wave to go. Is someone really going to see 20" out of this? Some 20-22" Kuchera amounts, Springfield down to Benton county, AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted 49 minutes ago Share Posted 49 minutes ago UGH... I DID NOT LIKE THAT NAM RUN FOR TULSA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago 12 minutes ago, ouamber said: UGH... I DID NOT LIKE THAT NAM RUN FOR TULSA! I just truly don't see that verifying, I think the NAM has a warm bias and the sleet stays 1 or 2 counties south of Tulsa. THe high resolution actually keeps the sleet south(2nd wave yet to occur on this run). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted 29 minutes ago Share Posted 29 minutes ago Ok, thanks! I'm taking a deep breath! I've been soooo burned here in Tulsa for the last several years!! The "Donut Holes" around the metro made me very bitter and skeptical of all models! LOL Even Travis didn't understand it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted 17 minutes ago Share Posted 17 minutes ago 18z ICON and RDPS still look good so it might just be the NAM doing it's NAM thing. That one is a real wildcard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted 16 minutes ago Share Posted 16 minutes ago 11 minutes ago, ouamber said: Ok, thanks! I'm taking a deep breath! I've been soooo burned here in Tulsa for the last several years!! The "Donut Holes" around the metro made me very bitter and skeptical of all models! LOL Even Travis didn't understand it!! This will forever be the most frustrating thing I have ever experienced as a snow lover. I'll never forget I had a work function that lasted 3 days, and we flew in our team from Mexico, and this one lady had never seen snow. I GUARANTEED her she would get to see some, and we proceeded to get the infamous donut hole. Beyond upset... BUT, this is a system that no matter what, we are getting 5-6 inches out of, even in the most bust type of situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted 6 minutes ago Share Posted 6 minutes ago SGF is now explicitly calling out the that several models are showing totals >14", they have certainly become much more bullish today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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