Golf757075 Posted December 23, 2025 Share Posted December 23, 2025 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: Looks really boring. Going to be interesting having 75 degree weather for Christmas though! Ryan made an interesting statement on Twitter with cold air we haven't seen in over a 1,000 years forming over nw canada. Need a delivery mechanism to bring it south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 24, 2025 Share Posted December 24, 2025 23 hours ago, JoMo said: Looks really boring. Going to be interesting having 75 degree weather for Christmas though! Heady seems insistent that the pattern will turn wetter after the first of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 25, 2025 Author Share Posted December 25, 2025 64 degrees this Christmas morning at my house. A/C even kicked back on. Gross. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Areas of southern and western OK are near 90 F this Christmas Day afternoon, with records easily shattered now in Oklahoma City & Tulsa. While not very unexpected with all the abnormally strong ridging in place over the Plain states this Christmas week, at least parts of OK and KS are also on the way to experiencing the warmest Christmas on record this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 26, 2025 Share Posted December 26, 2025 75 here today. Definitely an A/C Christmas. Merry Christmas everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted December 27, 2025 Share Posted December 27, 2025 Lots of daytime high temp records have been broken altogether, and even some overnight low maximums as well in all four of this topic's states from just yesterday (26th), and Christmas Day. Most notable so far has been Fayetteville AR. Setting a new all-time record high this year for the month of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 27, 2025 Share Posted December 27, 2025 For the first time in recorded history, Wichita has achieved 3 straight 70+ degree days in December. This pattern sucks. FWIW, the GFS and Euro both look pretty dry for the next 7-10 days. Ensembles may be picking up on something after that, but variability is extremely high. Looking at 30 days and counting without moisture (for Wichita and southern Kansas)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 28, 2025 Author Share Posted December 28, 2025 Back to reality in Fayetteville. Went from 74 to 46 in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted December 28, 2025 Share Posted December 28, 2025 1 hour ago, stormdragonwx said: Back to reality in Fayetteville. Went from 74 to 46 in an hour. Not before setting a new all-time, daytime high record for December this year (that I posted about in here). Very interesting as that had not happened in Fayetteville AR since back in 1951. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 Might finally be seeing a change after the first week of January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Some maximum temp records could be in jeopardy again this upcoming week as ridging aloft looks to reassert itself over the Plains states early in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 This pattern is beyond brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/4/2026 at 6:47 PM, MUWX said: This pattern is beyond brutal Yeah. These winter chinook patterns are obnoxious, and it has been going on for 3-4 weeks now. MT, WY, CO, ND, NE, and SD have essentially had no winter so far…and these are not exactly tropical locations. Even in areas further east, it is an extremely boring pattern. And west of the Rockies, it’s warm too. So it’s a bad winter pattern for the entire lower 48, which is ridiculous to be occurring during the heart of winter. Even when chilly NW flow occurs east of the chinook, it’s horrendously dry because the typical GOM moisture source is cut off. And the ridge/chinook is always lurking, so it often becomes warm for a few days here when the ridge shifts east a bit, and melts any modest snowfall which may have occurred prior. What will shake this pattern up? Models occasionally show signs of it changing, but the chinook seems to try reestablishing itself all the time. It’s frustrating to see 30s and 40s in MT on the models, even at the coldest time of the day (12z). If I lived there, I would be going crazy this winter. At least Alaska is experiencing winter. Extreme cold inland, and very snowy in Juneau and nearby areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted Thursday at 01:48 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 01:48 AM *Might* finally see something late next week. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted Thursday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:17 PM CFS/Canadian are really trying to something of interest late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted Saturday at 11:44 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 11:44 PM Those flurries were fun. Though it will be sad if that's our whole winter right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Watching the Deep South get the late week storm would really suck…. Hopefully it comes north and isn’t ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Man…. Temperatures on the GEM at 156 hours are something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago First post of the season for me since there hasn't been a season to speak of until now! With all the hype online of this upcoming potential Winter Storm, it's time to dive in and start posting model runs! 06Z Euro. Using Kuchera since this has it snowing in single digit temps on the Euro. Will post all the 12Z runs soon! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Typical Canadian run of it trying to layout unrealistic scenarios. BUT, it is a major improvement over last night's run. + Meanwhile the 12zGFS scales back and keeps most of the moisture to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago It sure seems like these things always come north in the final days. However, that high pressure is insanely strong, which gives me some pause. SGF has had some good AFDs over the past day or so, hopefully we get another good one this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Goodness gracious what a run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Goodness gracious what a run. Euro says OK is closed. Hey everyone!! Glad to have something to track! Has anyone seen and used these AI models? Are they good? How accurate do y'all think they are? I've been playing around with them, but the maps don't seem to match the OP or ENS. Just kinda curious your thoughts. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, ouamber said: Euro says OK is closed. Hey everyone!! Glad to have something to track! Has anyone seen and used these AI models? Are they good? How accurate do y'all think they are? I've been playing around with them, but the maps don't seem to match the OP or ENS. Just kinda curious your thoughts. Thanks! I think they’re generally pretty reliable, but there’s some concern this time that they may struggle because of how strong the high‑pressure system is expected to be. SGF noted that they will likely have difficulty since we have very few past cases with a similar setup. They’ve consistently been on the northern edge of the guidance, likely because they’re underestimating the strength of the high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted 51 minutes ago Share Posted 51 minutes ago Euro members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted 22 minutes ago Share Posted 22 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted 20 minutes ago Author Share Posted 20 minutes ago Lol I'll be that guy. "Lucy's Football has been firmly placed." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted 18 minutes ago Share Posted 18 minutes ago The main model difference is if the SW system comes/shears out into the Plains. Those are the bigger runs 12z CMC/Euro vs the 12z GFS which holds it back in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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