October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[Jersey Andrew]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most storms over the last seven years have been falling into the cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger and suppressed Southern stream. Strong benchmark storm tracks have been missing. This very strong Northern stream of the Pacific Jet has been leading to these groupings.

One group of storms gets suppressed to the south as kicker lows in the fast Pacific flow come into Western North America. This was the case last winter with the big Gulf snowstorm which went OTS to our south instead of coming up the coast.

The second group is the Great Lakes cutter like we got in mid-February during the -5 SD Greenland block. The jet was so strong and the SSTs to our east so warm that it forced a Southeast ridge rather then getting a benchmark track. Instead Toronto got the historic snows. Enough room between the shortwaves so one system can really amplify and cut to our west like later this week. That was originally forecast to be a coastal storm.

Then the third track is the hugger which can produce some lighter snow events like we got last February. But there was still too much Southeast ridging for NYC Metro so the heaviest totals were to our NW. Plus the there are often too many shortwaves in the fast Pacific flow leading to poor wavelength spacing.

It would be great in the coming winters if we can at least see a few very deep benchmark tracks. But the last time we were able to pull this off was in January 2022 and February 2021. 

If I remember correctly, January 2016 was originally forecast suppressed to south hitting DC area and only within 48 hours was NYC region in bullseye. Don’t know if it was PDO but we had a ridiculous number of blockbuster storms 2009-2011 of 20 inch plus variety.

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

If I remember correctly, January 2016 was originally forecast suppressed to south hitting DC area and only within 48 hours was NYC region in bullseye. Don’t know if it was PDO but we had a ridiculous number of blockbuster storms 2009-2011 of 20 inch plus variety.

Yes that’s true. All the models except the NAM were too surpassed with the system so the snowfall forecasts from the globals were way too low. 

We really had an epic run of benchmark storm tracks from 93-94 all the way up to 17-18. Both under -PDO and +PDO regimes. The -PDOs were defined by the cold ring off the West Coast. With the +PDOs by the warm ring. So the Pacific Jet was much weaker during the best seasons for benchmark storm tracks during that era. 

Since 2018-2019 we have need a new type of -PDO defined more by the warm pool to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians. This combined with the cold over Siberia leads to a faster Pacific Jet and these three prime storm tracks over the last seven winters leading to the record low snowfall.

The last reprieve for us was during January 2022 when a solid MJO 8 lead to a weakening of the Pacific Jet and the snowy benchmark pattern from ACY to ISP and BOS.  It was the last time we had both a cold and really snowy month. But it was bookmarked by a very warm December and a milder February and March with little to no snow. 

I am really hoping we can find some periods in this coming winter and others where we can see at least a brief return to benchmark tracks. But the overall pattern since 2018-2019 has been working against that.
 

[Brian5671]

bust of a forecast today-it's overcast and 49 vs the mostly sunny and 59 predicted

[SACRUS]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

bust of a forecast today-it's overcast and 49 vs the mostly sunny and 59 predicted

 

Been a lot of those of late , sunny calls and its partly - mostly cloudy.

 

 

[Sundog]

57 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

bust of a forecast today-it's overcast and 49 vs the mostly sunny and 59 predicted

Looks like the clouds are getting shoved to the SW in your area, you might be getting more sun soon.

[SnoSki14]

Feels like mid November. Cool & cloudy, only 53F right now

[nycwinter]

been very blustery and chilly for days now feels like late november..almost tempted to wear a coat..

[Sundog]

It looks like if it wasn't for that barely 70 degree high on the 19th, Central Park would have gone the entire second half of October without any days in the 70s of higher. 

In fact it was the only day with a high of 70 or higher since the 8th, when our mini torch ended. That's actually really impressive, especially when considering the background state we have to deal with.

[Brian5671]

47 minutes ago, Sundog said:

It looks like if it wasn't for that barely 70 degree high on the 19th, Central Park would have gone the entire second half of October without any days in the 70s of higher. 

In fact it was the only day with a high of 70 or higher since the 8th, when our mini torch ended. That's actually really impressive, especially when considering the background state we have to deal with.

very different from last year where we torched into early Nov with bone dry conditions and temps in the 80's a few days

[qg_omega]

Zzzzzz nothing going on at all locally on the horizon

[MANDA]

Working in the yard the last few days and the top soil is dust.  Bone dry.

October rainfall to date at my location is 1.56".  That is FAR better than last October when the entire month had just a Trace.

Still need rain badly.  Think reasonable expectation for my area is 1" from the coming event based on current guidance.

Anything more will be a gift and anything less will be a disappointment.