Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[canderson]

Just transitioned to sleet 

[mahantango#1]

Looks like the back edge of the snow is half hour away from me.

[mahantango#1]

[Voyager]

Gotta say, we're getting some really nice sized flakes with this one. I'm used to having pixie dust snows here.

[canderson]

Straight rain now 

[Jns2183]

Straight rain now 

Freezing rain. Was just out in it hiking the past hour. It's 30 here

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[Jns2183]

Sitting in front of fire, cold and wet

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[WmsptWx]

3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Freezing rain. Was just out in it hiking the past hour. It's 30 here

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Big brain idea. Did you dress up as a deer to add to the fun?

[Itstrainingtime]

40 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah who knows, I just kind of figured he meant anyone in our general latitudinal zone, and that a changeover back to a final thump of snow was on its way.  We'll see, I'm in a steady mix here.

I thought we were still snowing at home, my wife just informed me that it's been pouring rain for at least the last 30 minutes.  

The only evidence of wintry precip here on Turkey Hill is the tree line behind the office is icy...and that is it. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Ah the joy of living in Lanco:

@MUweather

 

Despite early mixing issues, this last burst of snow should push snow/sleet totals into the 2-4” range for most areas north of the Turnpike and west of Rt 15 or South Mtn. However, southern parts of Lancaster and Chester Co’s won’t even get a coating.. along with @millersvilleu

.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I thought we were still snowing at home, my wife just informed me that it's been pouring rain for at least the last 30 minutes.  

The only evidence of wintry precip here on Turkey Hill is the tree line behind the office is icy...and that is it. 

The last burst here is a mix of sleet and what is borderline freezing rain or plain rain.  Always tough forecasting around here.  My wife just went to drop our daughter off at preschool only to find out they were closed once she arrived.  They went against Penn Manor's guidance, who only had a delay.  Hempfield also only has a delay, although most schools decided to close.  People of course are complaining about all decisions blah blah blah.  My wife did say the roads were surprisingly bad.

[Jns2183]

Big brain idea. Did you dress up as a deer to add to the fun?

Just 60lbs of weights in my backpack for a 5K jaunt. I have a 24 hour / 36 mile hike on some difficult trails in the Poconos planned this February with my Brother.

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[Itstrainingtime]

12 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z GFS holding strong for even the LSV

This is exhibit A of why you never want to be close to the southern/southeast edge of a snowfall map. This is from just hours prior to the event. The "blues" were only 30-40 miles farther north in reality which is difficult for a model to nail down precisely, but if you're near the southern edge of any model output snowfall map...brace for the screw-o-rama. 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The last burst here is a mix of sleet and what is borderline freezing rain or plain rain.  Always tough forecasting around here.  My wife just went to drop our daughter off at preschool only to find out they were closed once she arrived.  They went against Penn Manor's guidance, who only had a delay.  Hempfield also only has a delay, although most schools decided to close.  People of course are complaining about all decisions blah blah blah.  My wife did say the roads were surprisingly bad.

Add Donegal to the list of schools that did open late. 

Good for you and your wife for getting your kiddo to school in a real district.   

[Voyager]

Damn. We've tainted even here in the coal region. Mixed sleet and freezing rain with a few straggler snowflakes currently. We did manage 4.25" before the flip, though 

[AccuChris]

Just some freezing drizzle/rain now in Lebanon. Ended with about 2.75” of snow here. As noted, GFS was too cold aloft and overdone in snowfall amounts for the southern counties. NAM suite and HRRR was pretty spot on the last 24-48 hours


.

[Jns2183]

The last burst here is a mix of sleet and what is borderline freezing rain or plain rain.  Always tough forecasting around here.  My wife just went to drop our daughter off at preschool only to find out they were closed once she arrived.  They went against Penn Manor's guidance, who only had a delay.  Hempfield also only has a delay, although most schools decided to close.  People of course are complaining about all decisions blah blah blah.  My wife did say the roads were surprisingly bad.

It appears as little as 5 miles separates drastically different conditions in some areas. I love how people just love to complain and if you point out conditions maybe different in a different place they have no problem telling you that the only place that truly and rightly matters is the one they are at.

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[Superstorm]

18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Ah the joy of living in Lanco:

@MUweather

 

Despite early mixing issues, this last burst of snow should push snow/sleet totals into the 2-4” range for most areas north of the Turnpike and west of Rt 15 or South Mtn. However, southern parts of Lancaster and Chester Co’s won’t even get a coating.. along with @millersvilleu

.

You can tell he enjoys MU did not see a coating.

[Superstorm]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is exhibit A of why you never want to be close to the southern/southeast edge of a snowfall map. This is from just hours prior to the event. The "blues" were only 30-40 miles farther north in reality which is difficult for a model to nail down precisely, but if you're near the southern edge of any model output snowfall map...brace for the screw-o-rama. 

Agree.  When NAM was showing those whiffs in Lanco, I stopped looking at any other model.

[Jns2183]

Finished with 3.75".

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[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Agree.  When NAM was showing those whiffs in Lanco, I stopped looking at any other model.

Yep. Someone mentioned a day or two ago that they didn't buy what the NAM was showing...I sure did. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Add Donegal to the list of schools that did open late. 

Good for you and your wife for getting your kiddo to school in a real district.   

Wait, did Donegal have school?  My wife is telling me they are closed.

[Jns2183]

You can tell he enjoys MU did not see a coating.

That man dislikes snow like @Voyager dislikes an ice storm when he's driving

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[Jns2183]

Truck hauling ice cream has shut down 322/22

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[Itstrainingtime]

14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Wait, did Donegal have school?  My wife is telling me they are closed.

Oh, maybe they did close? My wife texted me that it was snowing while kids were getting on the bus. It might have been a bus for a private school. 

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Truck hauling ice cream has shut down 322/22

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..: how?

[Itstrainingtime]

3 systems to watch on the GFS for next week:

• Monday: coastal low brings heavy snow to VA (miss south of us for now)
• Wednesday: clipper tracks north of PA and brings many of us rain 
• Friday: wave runs just south of us and brings snow to almost all of the southern half of PA

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Oh, maybe they did close? My wife texted me that it was snowing while kids were getting on the bus. It might have been a bus for a private school. 

Hmmm, I think what some schools did was have a two-hour delay in place but then decide to close after kids were already there or on their way.  In my mind, this is the dumbest possible move.  If it's too late to upgrade the delay to a closing then just keep them there for a whole day and let things clear up even more.  Why would you send them home almost immediately when things are still questionable.  Whatever haha.

[WmsptWx]

Somebody on a TEAMS call I am on reported "close to a foot" in Perry county. 

 

I can't believe that's true. 

[Jns2183]

Somebody on a TEAMS call I am on reported "close to a foot" in Perry county. 
 
I can't believe that's true. 

I can see 6"

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