Hurricane Humberto

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Humberto looks to be trending stronger than expected so far, and track is trending more towards Bermuda...if the trends continue, how will this impact the track of the other storm? Interesting to watch it play out...

For sure. On the one hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to keep 94L from moving northward enough to be picked up by the ULL, allowing for an escape route. On the other hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to move more Polward (East) away from 94L, having less influence

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

How did you get a larger gif to post?

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

How did you get a larger gif to post?

Download the gif on desktop. Upload it to imgur. Copy the direct link. Paste in the reply box and it should automatically embed. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I wish we had recon in there. This has the look of a high end cat 4 already 

[ineedsnow]

25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I wish we had recon in there. This has the look of a high end cat 4 already 

the last couple of frames it looks to be heading wsw

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=ir

[WxWatcher007]

Even with this half scan, Humberto is an absolute beast.

 

[WxWatcher007]

WOW Humberto now forecast to become a cat 5

[WxWatcher007]

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025
 
Humberto has continued to intensify rapidly this evening.  The eye
temperature has increased to 15C and the eyewall white ring (-73C) 
is nearly closed.  A 2137 UTC WSFM-1 HiRes microwave pass indicated 
that a concentric ring was developing about 65 nm from the eye. The 
initial intensity is raised to 125 kt and is close to the UW-CIMSS 
ADT of T6.4 and above the constrained subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 
All intensity contributions, low shear, warm waters, and ample
mid-level moisture, appear conducive for Humberto to intensify 
rapidly during the next 12-24 hours.  DTOPS guidance indicates 
a high probability of RI during the next 12-24 hours, and the latest
official intensity forecast follows suit, bringing Humberto to a
peak intensity of 140 kt Saturday night.  By the 36 hour period,
however, inner-core fluctuations as a result of eyewall replacement 
cycles (ERC) are possible, and it's difficult to forecast the exact 
timing.  It's worth mentioning, however, that the UW-CIMSS M-PERC 
(Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle) 
statistical model is predicting a 61 percent of onset.  By mid-next 
week, increasing vertical shear spreading over Humberto should 
induce a gradual weakening trend.  At the same time, while it passes 
west of Bermuda, a significant expansion in the surface wind field 
will likely occur.  The NHC intensity forecast is just above the 
previous forecast through the 36 hour period, and closely follows a 
blend of the HCCA consensus and the HAFS/HWRF/HMON hurricane models.
 
Humberto has taken a trochoidal jog to the left of the track this
evening, likely due to the rapid intensification event. The initial 
motion is estimated to be slightly south of due west, or 265/6 kt.  
Humberto is expected to move slowly toward the west or 
west-northwest during the next day or so in the easterly steering 
flow provided by mid-tropospheric high pressure located to the north 
of the cyclone and just east of Bermuda.  Around the 48 hour period, 
or Sunday evening, a northwestward turn with some reduction in 
forward speed is forecast while the above-mentioned high pressure 
weakens and shifts eastward.  By day 4, Humberto should commence a 
rather abrupt turn northward and northeastward in response to a 
major shortwave upper-level trough amplifying and moving out of 
northeastern Canada and into the northwestern Atlantic.  The 
official track forecast is located just to the left of the previous 
advisory, primarily due to the initial motion left of track, and 
lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and the Google DeepMind 
ensemble model.
 
NOAA buoy 41044, located about 38 n mi southwest of the center, has 
reported falling pressure,sustained tropical-storm-force winds, 
gusts just below hurricane-force and 17 ft seas.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 22.1N  58.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 22.2N  59.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 22.7N  61.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 23.6N  63.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 24.8N  65.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 26.2N  67.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 27.9N  68.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 32.1N  68.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 36.0N  62.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Boston Bulldog]

Yeah the writing was on the wall pretty quickly this morning, unabated RI was almost a guarantee.@WxWatcher007was correctly calling for this to be the season of the SW Atlantic… once Erin’s cold pool rebounded, that zone has become rocket fuel once again 

[hawkeye_wx]

I'm still not seeing anything in the recon plans regarding flying into Humberto.  As far as I know/remember, they always fly into hurricanes within range, as Humberto clearly is.

[BYG Jacob]

I understand the NHC has its hands full, but 125 knots is too low.