Major Hurricane Gabrielle

[Wannabehippie]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm curious to know why we have three recon planes flying all the way out to a tropical storm in the middle of the ocean, which isn't going to affect any land.

Probably for educational purposes for future storms

 

[Wannabehippie]

It looks to me that Gabrielle is currently being affected by an ULL to its west, and dry air to its north.NHC still predicts it will become a hurricane tomorrow.

 

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/a290b4b1-9c78-4bd0-8b59-9ebf3196f9b8

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Gabby on its way to becoming our next hurricane 

[NorthHillsWx]

I think it’s a hurricane based on recon but sat presentation has degraded since the plane left. Not sure what happens with the system pretty huge spread in intensity guidance 

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think it’s a hurricane based on recon but sat presentation has degraded since the plane left. Not sure what happens with the system pretty huge spread in intensity guidance 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025

...GABRIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025

We are fortunate to have three NOAA aircraft (two P3's and one G-IV)
which are conducting research missions into Gabrielle this
afternoon. The data they have provided has been valuable, showing
the storm has become better aligned in the low to mid-levels
compared to this morning, though the eyewall structure has been
coming and going due to occasional dry air mixing out near the
cyclone's core. The highest 750 mb flight-level winds were up to 70
kt, which using a typical 0.85 reduction supports 60 kt. However,
the Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) on board one of the NOAA-P3 aircraft
showed a swath of 0.5 km winds up to 79 kt in the eastern semicircle
at 1741 UTC. Using a more conservative 0.80 reduction factor
for this level supports an intensity of 65 kt, and Gabrielle has
become a hurricane.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 28.5N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 29.7N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 31.2N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 32.7N 60.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 35.2N 53.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 37.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 41.5N 25.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[WxWatcher007]

Now forecast to briefly become a major.

While the structure of Gabrielle on geostationary satellite is still 
a little ragged with warmer cloud tops than this morning, it has 
become more axis-symmetric, and a recent AMSR2 microwave pass at 
1733 UTC indicates a thicker 37-GHz cyan ring than the one observed 
this morning. 18 UTC DTOPS guidance, which did well predicting 
Erin's rapid intensification period earlier this year, is now 
indicating a 62 to 76 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in 
intensity over the next 24 h. Thus, I see no reason to not forecast 
continued steady to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 h, 
which is in line with the higher end of the intensity guidance, but 
not as high as the most recent HAFS-A run. After 36 h, SHIPS 
guidance shows southwesterly shear steadily increasing, and this 
should lead to steady weakening through the end of the forecast 
period. There is still some question as to Gabrielle's structure at 
the end of the forecast and whether it will be losing tropical 
characteristics. The southward shift in the forecast track suggests 
it might hang on to tropical characteristics a little longer than 
originally expected. The intensity forecast falls back close to the 
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids by the end of the forecast period.

[WxWatcher007]

It may be starting to take off with deep convection now wrapping fully around the center. It has a narrow window before environmental conditions become more hostile but the once anemic Gabby may put on a show before the curtain falls. 
 

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It may be starting to take off with deep convection now wrapping fully around the center. It has a narrow window before environmental conditions become more hostile but the once anemic Gabby may put on a show before the curtain falls. 
 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Special Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

...GABRIELLE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 62.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES



Hurricane Gabrielle Special Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

Satellite images indicate that Gabrielle has rapidly intensified
into a major hurricane with a well-defined eye. The current
intensity is set to 105 kt, a blend of constrained Dvorak estimates
of about 100 kt with higher Data-T values of 115 kt. Further
intensification is expected today, and the intensity forecast is
raised for the first 24 hours, then kept the same afterwards.
Small changes were made to the wind radii to account for the
stronger hurricane.

No changes were required to the track forecast.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1300Z 30.6N 62.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 31.3N 62.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 32.9N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 34.4N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 35.4N 53.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 36.0N 47.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 36.7N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 40.7N 28.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 44.2N 19.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

[WxWatcher007]

Really took off. GREAT for my forecast lol.

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Really took off. GREAT for my forecast lol.

Recon will shortly tell us more.

[hawkeye_wx]

GOES is having trouble today.  It has been almost two hours since the satellite data has updated.

[WxWatcher007]

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072025
500 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

Gabrielle has continued to become better organized this afternoon, 
with very cold cloud tops in the eyewall and a warm eye.  Data from 
both NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirm satellite estimates 
that Gabrielle is a category 4 hurricane, with peak 700-mb winds of 
129 kt in the eastern quadrant a few hours ago.  Additionally, 
tail-Doppler radar data showed maximum 0.5 km winds of 135-140 kt 
on the last pass, and the double eyewall structure has 
consolidated into a single eyewall again.  These data supported an 
intensity of at least 115 kt at 18Z, and with the slight 
improvement on satellite since that time, the initial wind speed is 
set to 120 kt.  

The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at about 10 kt. 
There are no important changes to report to the track forecast, 
with the subtropical ridge providing a seemingly reliable steering 
for the next several days.  Gabrielle is forecast to turn 
northeastward overnight and then move at a more rapid pace to the 
east-northeast during the next few days due to stronger mid-latitude 
flow.  The new forecast remains on the faster side of the guidance, 
closer to the Google DeepMind and GFS model.  Extratropical 
transition is expected late on Friday while the system is in the 
vicinity of the Azores.
 
Little significant intensity change with Gabrielle is expected as 
the cyclone begins to move into a less conducive environment, 
though the overnight diurnal convective max should help the 
hurricane maintain its strength in the short term.  A combination of 
cooler waters and increasing shear should cause Gabrielle to start 
to weaken by late tomorrow.  While SSTs drop off notably by 
midweek, an upper-level trough is likely to provide extra divergence 
aloft, keeping the hurricane stronger than other environmental 
conditions might suggest.  The new NHC intensity forecast is quite 
similar to the previous one, showing a gradual weakening during the 
long-range forecast and near the model consensus.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda 
and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina 
northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of 
days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office.
 
2.  Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle
though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential
wind, rainfall, and wave impacts.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 31.7N  61.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 32.8N  60.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 34.2N  57.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 35.2N  53.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 35.7N  47.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  25/0600Z 36.3N  40.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 37.7N  34.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 42.8N  22.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  27/1800Z 44.5N  15.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
  

[WxWatcher007]

Watch out Azores

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072025
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

Gabrielle remains a formidable Category-4 hurricane with a 
well-defined 15 n-mi diameter eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops 
of near -70 deg C.  The current intensity estimate is held at 120 
kt, which is slightly higher than the latest subjective Dvorak 
estimates of 115 kt from both TAFB and SAB.  This is also a blend 
of objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.

The hurricane has turned toward the northeast and is now moving at 
around 040/11 kt.  The track forecast philosophy remains about the 
same as in the previous advisory.  Gabrielle should move around the 
northwestern side of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 
day or so and then accelerate east-northeastward between the ridge 
and the mid-latitude westerlies through about 72 hours.  A slight 
turn to the northeast ahead of a higher-latitude trough is expected 
in 3-4 days.  This official track forecast is similar to the 
previous one.  The latest Google DeepMind forecast is a little 
farther north of the model consensus.  Simulated satellite imagery 
from the global models suggest extratropical transition will occur 
on Friday while the system is in the vicinity of the Azores.

No significant change in intensity is anticipated into early 
Tuesday while Gabrielle remains in a conducive atmospheric and 
oceanic environment  By late tomorrow and beyond, increasing 
vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air and cooler waters should 
cause weakening.  However, an approaching upper-level trough could 
provide enhanced divergence aloft which could help Gabrielle 
maintain some of its intensity during the next few days.  The 
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and 
close to the model consensus.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina
northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of
days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
2.  Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle
though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential
wind, rainfall, and wave impacts.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 32.4N  61.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 33.5N  59.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 34.8N  55.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 35.5N  50.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 35.9N  44.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 37.0N  37.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 38.8N  31.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 43.0N  22.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  28/0000Z 44.0N  16.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

[WxWatcher007]

Just a tremendous satellite presentation tonight. Awfully impressive considering that Gab had a foot in the grave a few days ago.

[Windspeed]

Yeah, Gabrielle is cranking. Should help a little with the low seasonal ACE numbers if it can hold onto major hurricane status for a few days.