Wannabehippie Posted Saturday at 08:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:58 PM 2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: I'm curious to know why we have three recon planes flying all the way out to a tropical storm in the middle of the ocean, which isn't going to affect any land. Probably for educational purposes for future storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted yesterday at 03:15 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:15 AM It looks to me that Gabrielle is currently being affected by an ULL to its west, and dry air to its north.NHC still predicts it will become a hurricane tomorrow. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/a290b4b1-9c78-4bd0-8b59-9ebf3196f9b8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 02:02 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:02 PM Gabby on its way to becoming our next hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago I think it’s a hurricane based on recon but sat presentation has degraded since the plane left. Not sure what happens with the system pretty huge spread in intensity guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I think it’s a hurricane based on recon but sat presentation has degraded since the plane left. Not sure what happens with the system pretty huge spread in intensity guidance BULLETIN Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025 ...GABRIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 61.7W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025 We are fortunate to have three NOAA aircraft (two P3's and one G-IV) which are conducting research missions into Gabrielle this afternoon. The data they have provided has been valuable, showing the storm has become better aligned in the low to mid-levels compared to this morning, though the eyewall structure has been coming and going due to occasional dry air mixing out near the cyclone's core. The highest 750 mb flight-level winds were up to 70 kt, which using a typical 0.85 reduction supports 60 kt. However, the Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) on board one of the NOAA-P3 aircraft showed a swath of 0.5 km winds up to 79 kt in the eastern semicircle at 1741 UTC. Using a more conservative 0.80 reduction factor for this level supports an intensity of 65 kt, and Gabrielle has become a hurricane. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 28.5N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 29.7N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 31.2N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 32.7N 60.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 35.2N 53.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 37.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 41.5N 25.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 21 hours ago Author Share Posted 21 hours ago Now forecast to briefly become a major. While the structure of Gabrielle on geostationary satellite is still a little ragged with warmer cloud tops than this morning, it has become more axis-symmetric, and a recent AMSR2 microwave pass at 1733 UTC indicates a thicker 37-GHz cyan ring than the one observed this morning. 18 UTC DTOPS guidance, which did well predicting Erin's rapid intensification period earlier this year, is now indicating a 62 to 76 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity over the next 24 h. Thus, I see no reason to not forecast continued steady to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 h, which is in line with the higher end of the intensity guidance, but not as high as the most recent HAFS-A run. After 36 h, SHIPS guidance shows southwesterly shear steadily increasing, and this should lead to steady weakening through the end of the forecast period. There is still some question as to Gabrielle's structure at the end of the forecast and whether it will be losing tropical characteristics. The southward shift in the forecast track suggests it might hang on to tropical characteristics a little longer than originally expected. The intensity forecast falls back close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids by the end of the forecast period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago It may be starting to take off with deep convection now wrapping fully around the center. It has a narrow window before environmental conditions become more hostile but the once anemic Gabby may put on a show before the curtain falls. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: It may be starting to take off with deep convection now wrapping fully around the center. It has a narrow window before environmental conditions become more hostile but the once anemic Gabby may put on a show before the curtain falls. BULLETIN Hurricane Gabrielle Special Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 900 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025 ...GABRIELLE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 62.2W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES Hurricane Gabrielle Special Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 900 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025 Satellite images indicate that Gabrielle has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane with a well-defined eye. The current intensity is set to 105 kt, a blend of constrained Dvorak estimates of about 100 kt with higher Data-T values of 115 kt. Further intensification is expected today, and the intensity forecast is raised for the first 24 hours, then kept the same afterwards. Small changes were made to the wind radii to account for the stronger hurricane. No changes were required to the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1300Z 30.6N 62.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 31.3N 62.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 32.9N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 34.4N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 35.4N 53.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 36.0N 47.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 36.7N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 40.7N 28.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 44.2N 19.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago Really took off. GREAT for my forecast lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Really took off. GREAT for my forecast lol. Recon will shortly tell us more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GOES is having trouble today. It has been almost two hours since the satellite data has updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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