Met1985 Posted December 6, 2025 Share Posted December 6, 2025 Just now, wncsnow said: NW flow really saving yall Yeah man it does. We get the majority of our seasonal average with upslope snow. Look at @Buckethead annual snowfall. I mean he's high in elevation but he can average like 70 plus and get a foot during a good flow snow event. He'll he probably just about matches Roan mountain. We don't need synoptic along the border bro. We just need great forcing, cold air, and the right wind direction to cash in. I've actually seen where we get a synoptic storm but then we get more flow snow than we do synoptic snow. Flow snow is our bread and butter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 6, 2025 Share Posted December 6, 2025 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Look at my chart of Boone. So you're telling me you have seen more snow than Boone during that time period? I think we all get caught up in 2 or 3 inch events when the long term average is still much higher than what we have been getting recently. What is your average in Maggie Valley? I'm guessing closer to 30 inches long term. Maggie Valleys average is 8 to 10 inches a year. I've surpassed for the last 6 years and already well on the way to surpass the average again this winter. We need a big synoptic storm Region wide to calm the Mountain envy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 6, 2025 Author Share Posted December 6, 2025 Yeah man it does. We get the majority of our seasonal average with upslope snow. Look at [mention=2505]Buckethead[/mention] annual snowfall. I mean he's high in elevation but he can average like 70 plus and get a foot during a good flow snow event. He'll he probably just about matches Roan mountain. We don't need synoptic along the border bro. We just need great forcing, cold air, and the right wind direction to cash in. I've actually seen where we get a synoptic storm but then we get more flow snow than we do synoptic snow. Flow snow is our bread and butter.Yup, synoptic storms usually don't produce for me. I'm averaging about 51" over the last 8 seasons (2022-2024 really pulled that average down), and I would guess that >90% of my snow is NWF.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 6, 2025 Share Posted December 6, 2025 Anyway, skies have cleared and the temperature has dropped 5F the past hour. Currently 37 at 5 o'clock. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2025 Share Posted December 6, 2025 4 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said: Anyway, skies have cleared and the temperature has dropped 5F the past hour. Currently 37 at 5 o'clock. Yup 36 degrees here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2025 Share Posted December 6, 2025 49 minutes ago, Buckethead said: Yup, synoptic storms usually don't produce for me. I'm averaging about 51" over the last 8 seasons (2022-2024 really pulled that average down), and I would guess that >90% of my snow is NWF. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk I would love to see the 60 year average for your location. I bet you had a lot of 75" seasons in the past. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 3km NAM finally getting on board with Monday. GFS isn't completely on an island anymore. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 29 degrees already tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 Currently 30 with frost. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 This map looks odd but is jumping on board for us.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 NAM 3K looking good also. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 18z gfs bringing down the hammer.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 12z Euro on a similar path. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 The complexity of not only this month but of the season is an understatement. We have the affects of the SSW from last month. La Nina state is collapsing. Another warming event looks likely this month. The MJO is right where we want it. The SOI and ONI are going to have significant effects down the road. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 This looks to be a northern mountain special amd points eastward. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 7, 2025 Author Share Posted December 7, 2025 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 137 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 NCZ049-050-071445- /O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0013.251208T0600Z-251209T0600Z/ Yancey-Mitchell- 137 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations up to 3 inches. * WHERE...Mitchell and Yancey Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The snowfall will create slippery and snow covered roadways. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Up to an inch of snow is possible in the valley locations of Mitchell and Yancey counties, mainly Monday morning.Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 No freezing fog at the house this morning. It's currently 25 which is my low. Snow makers are busy up at Cataloochee and Tube World here in town. I'm not expecting much from the system coming in overnight into tomorrow. Late this week we are likely to get the coldest air of the season as lobes of Arctic air heads our way. It's too soon to know if we will have precipitation arriving with the Arctic front. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 I agree with met I think the northern mountains will be the sweet spot for this one. Looks like a good bit of moisture and shouldn’t have temp issues like people south and east of them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 Was a dang cold morning and frosted to heavy it looks like snow. Low of 20 degrees with was well below the forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 7, 2025 Author Share Posted December 7, 2025 Was a dang cold morning and frosted to heavy it looks like snow. Low of 20 degrees with was well below the forecast. And I'm starting out at 34 lol. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 4 minutes ago, Buckethead said: And I'm starting out at 34 lol. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk One heck of an inversion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 The 12Z 3km NAM suggests 2 to 3 inches here in the Valley. Even Asheville gets snow! That models continues to suggest a good 24+ hours of light snow in Haywood County. Is it enough for GSP to expand the WWA this afternoon? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 7, 2025 Author Share Posted December 7, 2025 The 12Z 3km NAM suggests 2 to 3 inches here in the Valley. Even Asheville gets snow! That models continues to suggest a good 24+ hours of light snow in Haywood County. Is it enough for GSP to expand the WWA this afternoon? The 12z icon has increased totals as well. A degree or two will make a lot of difference with this event. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopack42 Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 2 hours ago, Sw NC weather said: I agree with met I think the northern mountains will be the sweet spot for this one. Looks like a good bit of moisture and shouldn’t have temp issues like people south and east of them. I hope you're right but I hope everyone cashes in and maxes out. I'm thinking I'm not going to be able to make it from Beech to Johnson City for an appointment tomorrow lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 The 12Z GFS solution is coming in with a nice hit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 My gut says someone in the northern mountains is going to get absolutely thumped. Like prediction of 2” with a verification of 7 or 8” thumped. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 7, 2025 Share Posted December 7, 2025 Like last evening, temperature is falling quickly but I do have a bit of breeze this evening. My high was 49 today and have dropped to 38 under clear skies. Hunter in his afternoon post on X stated that this is a two part system. The first coming early tomorrow morning and lasting to around 10 AM. The second part of this system should arrive after 3 PM and he believes this one will drop 2 to 3 inches across the Smokies and Balsams. He stated it should wrap up before daybreak Tuesday morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 8, 2025 Share Posted December 8, 2025 Currently down to 31.8. At least we won't be wasting as much moisture saturating this time, surface humidity already at 98%.Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 8, 2025 Share Posted December 8, 2025 Down to 29. 0z HRRR upped moisture a bit again. Looks like pretty heavy snow at 8AM with a nice second round in the afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 8, 2025 Share Posted December 8, 2025 Plenty of moisture back over MS/TN. Definitely looks healthy. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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