2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[BooneWX]

3 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Now the new 18z gfs keeps it completely off land now. So we will see.

Huge win for all of us if the trends this evening are correct. Seems like the slower organization of PTC9 and the rapid ramp up for Humberto are starting to get sniffed out. Hopefully it feels that influence more than the ULL. I’ll never forget everyone thinking the ULL last year would tug Helene from Tallahassee to Chattanooga and we saw that model bias get exposed in an unfortunate manner but maybe this time “fortunately” is the word??
 

[Met1985]

What a turn on the models from the past 24 hours. Seems like the interaction with Humberto will pull Imelda out to see and keep it from making landfall as it seems currently with the models. This is the 06z gfs and the 00z euro. Looks like the coast is getting racked but I still think we see some adjustments made. With the pull from Humberto and a strong backdoor cold front blowing through we might just make it out with some beneficial rainfall in parts that need it and no flooding in the area.

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[Maggie Valley Steve]

Morning Update from the WPC regarding excessive rainfall and amounts.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

12Z Track guidance 

[Met1985]

Getting back to today if your area gets underneath one of these storms today you might be in a flash flood area because these storms aren't moving at all. They are just training over the same areas.  TN is getting hammered currently because of this.

[Met1985]

12z gfs keeps Imelda of the coast also. Also towards the end of next week it looks like we could cool down significantly.  With highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

We're getting showers in the Valley now. Heavier rain looks likely for some.