2025-2026 Winter Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Preliminary ideas.  I look for a second winter of La Nina.  Extended summer looks likely with a sharp turn to winter later in November, though the CANSIPS argues for an early fall.  The Euro seasonal has summer lasting through fall.  A 3-4 week period in December and January could be frigid.  The QBO is now falling and has reached negative territory.  Oddly, the data shows the QBO dipped negative briefly (and sharply) during December 2024 out of nowhere - interesting.  To me, that looks like a mistake w/ the +/- symbol.  Either way, it is falling now as we hit summer.  By December, we should be hitting rock bottom.   I think the stage is set for another frigid stretch sometime after or around mid-December.  Sorry, I haven't been on for a bit.  I have been taking a break and recharging.  I have not looked at the EPO yet.

[Carvers Gap]

The CANSIPS and Euro seasonals have the PDO going to neutral w/ warmer SST temps moving closer to the coast of northern NA as winter progresses.  The La Nina on both models is weak and/or trending to neutral as winter progresses.  I could almost cut and paste last winter's forecast with one exception....the QBO is more favorable.  

[Carvers Gap]

I will work on some analogs packages.  This is tricky this year as we were more La Nina last winter, trended back to neutral, and may trend weakly negative again.  For now and subject to change...

Temps...

Dec: BN

Jan: N

Feb: AN

Precip...

All months normal to slightly BN IMHO...but w/ a chance for slightly AN if you like the CANSIPS.

Snow...

AN eastern valley w/ an early start

normal everywhere else w/ snow a bit later in middle and west

(but honestly might be similar to what you got this winter)

[Daniel Boone]

As things look from this juncture ,we have a pretty good shot at a cold/ snowy Winter. The QBO should help lend to a more negative AO and NAO and the other drivers going to a more favorable position I see not much reason to not go for an overall cold and snowy Winter. However ,the IO bears watching as it , as we know, can throw a Monkey Wrench into an otherwise guaranteed Driver Setup but, not too concerned atm .

[Carvers Gap]

13 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

As things look from this juncture ,we have a pretty good shot at a cold/ snowy Winter. The QBO should help lend to a more negative AO and NAO and the other drivers going to a more favorable position I see not much reason to not go for an overall cold and snowy Winter. However ,the IO bears watching as it , as we know, can throw a Monkey Wrench into an otherwise guaranteed Driver Setup but, not too concerned atm .

I always forget about the IO, and it burns be every...single...time I forget about it.  Usually Jeff comes in and is like, "Lots of convection moving into the Maritime Continent."  It took me a few times, but then I figured out that was code for...winter is about to go to crap!   LOL.  

[Daniel Boone]

22 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I always forget about the IO, and it burns be every...single...time I forget about it.  Usually Jeff comes in and is like, "Lots of convection moving into the Maritime Continent."  It took me a few times, but then I figured out that was code for...winter is about to go to crap!   LOL.  

Yeah, it's easy to do. It's been a Thorn more times than not the last few Years.

[jaxjagman]

Pattern what CANSIPS is showing right now looks maybe similar to last winter.More NINA, weak NINA.I'm surprised it didnt show more blocking into the Hudson with the blocking its showing into around the four corners,but it still looks like a -NAO.Jan would seemingly right now be BN with the blocking its showing into the Western AK/.Bering Sea.Into Feb this blocking shifts into the Bering Sea,this seemingly could bring a early severe threat

Think myself the warm SST'S into the Yellow Sea into the Sea of Japan and off the east coast of Japan are unprecedented to rely on analogs.I mean the warmest SST'S in this region was in 2023 during a strong NINO

[vortexse93]

@jaxjagman I am more interested to see what the Fall of 2025 will potentially bring in terms of severe weather as I am looking for my first solo chase of my storm chasing career/hobby. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

On 6/14/2025 at 11:05 PM, jaxjagman said:

Pattern what CANSIPS is showing right now looks maybe similar to last winter.More NINA, weak NINA.I'm surprised it didnt show more blocking into the Hudson with the blocking its showing into around the four corners,but it still looks like a -NAO.Jan would seemingly right now be BN with the blocking its showing into the Western AK/.Bering Sea.Into Feb this blocking shifts into the Bering Sea,this seemingly could bring a early severe threat

Think myself the warm SST'S into the Yellow Sea into the Sea of Japan and off the east coast of Japan are unprecedented to rely on analogs.I mean the warmest SST'S in this region was in 2023 during a strong NINO

Yeah, that warm blob seems to want to be a mainstay.

[KakashiHatake2000]

hello i know or am assuming that all of this is open discussion and uncertain what next year is going to bring but i am rooting for a cooler fall cold winter and hopefully also a less active season at least than this year depending on whos turn it is next year plains midwest ohio valley southeast along with oh joy analogs too 

[Daniel Boone]

PDO is quickly going deeply negative unfortunately. Doesn't bode well for Winter. Just as it appeared we were finally coming out of that long -PDO stretch, for whatever reason it comes roaring back. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

gotcha i hope i wasnt sounding like a weather weenie wasnt trying to i was just thinking someday that things would have a normal cool fall and normal cold winter like we did in the 2013-2019 period i dont really remember but sometime in that timeframe we had cool fall and cold winter

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

gotcha i hope i wasnt sounding like a weather weenie wasnt trying to i was just thinking someday that things would have a normal cool fall and normal cold winter like we did in the 2013-2019 period i dont really remember but sometime in that timeframe we had cool fall and cold winter

2013-14 and 2014-15. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

2013-14 and 2014-15. 

oh okay gotcha thank you

[Carvers Gap]

On 6/29/2025 at 11:15 PM, Daniel Boone said:

PDO is quickly going deeply negative unfortunately. Doesn't bode well for Winter. Just as it appeared we were finally coming out of that long -PDO stretch, for whatever reason it comes roaring back. 

What did the July 1 seasonals show for winter in that area in regards to GOA SSTs?  It seems like the June 1 CANSIPS had it easing up a bit.  I need to look more closely at July1.  

[Daniel Boone]

On 7/4/2025 at 9:01 PM, Carvers Gap said:

What did the July 1 seasonals show for winter in that area in regards to GOA SSTs?  It seems like the June 1 CANSIPS had it easing up a bit.  I need to look more closely at July1.  

That's our hope as you know ,with the rest of the PAC in a -PDO Regime. Hopefully those SST'S go well above Normal there. 

[Carvers Gap]

15 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

That's our hope as you know ,with the rest of the PAC in a -PDO Regime. Hopefully those SST'S go well above Normal there. 

Both the CANSIPS and Euro Seasonals have the coastal BN SSTs in the NE Pac basin subsiding.  So, no bueno on those.  Still plenty of warmth where we need to be cool west of that.  The CFS seasonal today has a complete flip of the PDO to a more favorable conditions by October, though I have my doubts as it doesn't have support from other models.  It looks like a weak La Nina(fall and winter) from say just west of the dateline to South America - and I mean weak.  Some might even call that a La Nada, but that setup would allow for the jet to buckle in the East IMHO by late fall.

Even just getting those NE Pac coastal temps to neutral would help as it would prevent the trough from locking into the West.

[Daniel Boone]

On 7/9/2025 at 3:33 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Both the CANSIPS and Euro Seasonals have the coastal BN SSTs in the NE Pac basin subsiding.  So, no bueno on those.  Still plenty of warmth where we need to be cool west of that.  The CFS seasonal today has a complete flip of the PDO to a more favorable conditions by October, though I have my doubts as it doesn't have support from other models.  It looks like a weak La Nina(fall and winter) from say just west of the dateline to South America - and I mean weak.  Some might even call that a La Nada, but that setup would allow for the jet to buckle in the East IMHO by late fall.

Even just getting those NE Pac coastal temps to neutral would help as it would prevent the trough from locking into the West.

Yeah, right with you on everything you said brother. As it stands, a decent shot at a cold November/December imo. If by some almost miracle the CFS scores a coup irt the PDO we could be in business the balance of Winter.

  Let's keep an eye on the NATL SST'S as well as the QBO looks favorable for a predominant -AO so, if those SST'S configure correctly we could have a greater likelihood of a -AO/NAO Combo.

[Carvers Gap]

10 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, right with you on everything you said brother. As it stands, a decent shot at a cold November/December imo. If by some almost miracle the CFS scores a coup irt the PDO we could be in business the balance of Winter.

  Let's keep an eye on the NATL SST'S as well as the QBO looks favorable for a predominant -AO so, if those SST'S configure correctly we could have a greater likelihood of a -AO/NAO Combo.

It amazes me more and more with each passing each year how much PAC and IO ocean SSTs impact the eastern half of NA.  Now, I gotta remember to factor in the North Atlantic?  LOL

[Daniel Boone]

On 7/11/2025 at 10:18 AM, Carvers Gap said:

It amazes me more and more with each passing each year how much PAC and IO ocean SSTs impact the eastern half of NA.  Now, I gotta remember to factor in the North Atlantic?  LOL

Lol. Yeah I know what you're saying. Seems we're hurt by those area's more times than not.

[Carvers Gap]

Yep.  That will do it.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Wait, there is more....that would be a double block.  Some zonal underneath, but that would very likely get the job done. 

[Carvers Gap]

Like the CANSIPS seasonals which were just released, the Euro seasonals show decent signals for HL blocking for Dec-Jan.  That would fit nicely with a weak La Nina.  No, I haven't checked SSTs yet for the Euro.

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro seasonal SST anomalies don't really line-up w the NA pattern.  AN SSTs in the centiral IO imply convection which spreads into the Maritime Continent.  @nrgjeff@Daniel Boone@Met1985@John1122@GaWx@Math/Met what is causing those big blocks over NA w/ the Pac and IO basins being meh?  If I didn't tag you, please don't be offended.  Feel free to jump right in.  I know some folks from other forums might also have some input.  If you don't have access to SST maps, I can post those.

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro seasonal SST anomalies don't really line-up w the NA pattern.  AN SSTs in the centiral IO imply convection which spreads into the Maritime Continent.  @nrgjeff@Daniel Boone@Met1985@John1122@GaWx@Math/Met what is causing those big blocks over NA w/ the Pac and IO basins being meh?  If I didn't tag you, please don't be offended.  Feel free to jump right in.  I know some folks from other forums might also have some input.  If you don't have access to SST maps, I can post those.

Let me so some research and ill chime in. Thank you for the tag.

[Daniel Boone]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Like the CANSIPS seasonals which were just released, the Euro seasonals show decent signals for HL blocking for Dec-Jan.  That would fit nicely with a weak La Nina.  No, I haven't checked SSTs yet for the Euro.

That makes sense given the QBO as well. As of now, there's an obvious disconnect with the SST'S and Atmosphere. So, the NATL SST'S may not factor in too much if that were to continue into Winter. On to the reason of such a disconnect, that probably has something to do with Solar/ tropospheric imo. Mountain Torque could be at play some but, not to the disconnect Magnitude there is I don't think. Jeff may have a better or a more detailed explanation on the Subject.

[*Flash*]

I can’t say I disagree. Sorry, @Carvers Gap, I know this doesn’t help with your latest inquiry.

[Carvers Gap]

15 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

That makes sense given the QBO as well. As of now, there's an obvious disconnect with the SST'S and Atmosphere. So, the NATL SST'S may not factor in too much if that were to continue into Winter. On to the reason of such a disconnect, that probably has something to do with Solar/ tropospheric imo. Mountain Torque could be at play some but, not to the disconnect Magnitude there is I don't think. Jeff may have a better or a more detailed explanation on the Subject.

I have been sucked-in by La Nada before which is what the SSTs kind of look like.  La Nada often looks great at the start, but lots and lots of swings and misses.  That said, I have a hard time seeing lots of. misses w/ the Dec-Jan setup as depicted on this month's seasonal Euro.  That is about as good as it gets.  The fly in the ointment would be cold source and a ridge bellying underneath across the South.  The Great Lakes region looks primed for cold.  Can it get south of the Ohio River?  We will see.  I do agree the QBO should be good for this winter - such an odd metric to be so accurate.  Honestly, it is a weak Nina in the eastern Pac and a weak Nino in the western Pac -> maybe that is the ticket which is the best of both worlds.  That warmer western Pac might be enough to get convection into phase 8-1 during mid winter.  

It may well be that we see the NAO fire again as recent winters have seen it much more active in a good way.  John might have better information about Nada's w his personal records in conjunction w/ the QBO.  His data set is the only data set I truly trust for this region.

[Daniel Boone]

Yeah. The SST/Atmosphere correlation should become more Set as we get into Fall and Winter. If we get the tripole SST config in the NATL , along with the favourable QBO we should be in business as far as upstream blocking. We need to do a run on west based nina/ east based nina combo composites ,if it can be done. If we can find the Year's with that Configuration , should be able to. Maybe Chuck over in the MA can. He's good at that stuff. 

[John1122]

I'm sure it's entirely coincidence, but we are hitting the 30 year legendary/epic winter cycle year here in 25-26. 

The winters of 1935-36, 1965-66, and 1995-96 were all given to stretches of very abnormal cold/ above average snowfall. 

I know in 1935-36 the NE Pacific was on fire, 3c AN.  

Western areas did the worst in that winter, but Memphis still got over 10 inches of snow Dec-Feb. Nashville got 19.2 inches from 4 big events. 

Knoxville had 28 inches that winter.  

Chattanooga had around 21 inches that winter. 

My area had 39 inches that winter. 12 in December, 9 in January, and 18 in February. 

The North Pac was also warm in 1965-1966. January of 66 was absolutely one of our harshest winter events. Most of the state was 5 to 20 below zero after a few big snow events. Alabama set their all time state record low then, when a small town NE of Huntsville hit -27. 

1995-95 delivered epic winter here but the north pacific was cool that season. 

I'm sure a coincidence but an odd one. 

As for Carver's question about general sst vs blocking, I've found that is a loose correlation at times, mainly even when we get favorable sst in a region that would normally promote blocking, we often still don't get it. 

I'll look into La Nada winters but I believe enso neutral leans towards AN temps as a rule.