Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:13 PM Preliminary ideas. I look for a second winter of La Nina. Extended summer looks likely with a sharp turn to winter later in November, though the CANSIPS argues for an early fall. The Euro seasonal has summer lasting through fall. A 3-4 week period in December and January could be frigid. The QBO is now falling and has reached negative territory. Oddly, the data shows the QBO dipped negative briefly (and sharply) during December 2024 out of nowhere - interesting. To me, that looks like a mistake w/ the +/- symbol. Either way, it is falling now as we hit summer. By December, we should be hitting rock bottom. I think the stage is set for another frigid stretch sometime after or around mid-December. Sorry, I haven't been on for a bit. I have been taking a break and recharging. I have not looked at the EPO yet. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:21 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 10:21 PM The CANSIPS and Euro seasonals have the PDO going to neutral w/ warmer SST temps moving closer to the coast of northern NA as winter progresses. The La Nina on both models is weak and/or trending to neutral as winter progresses. I could almost cut and paste last winter's forecast with one exception....the QBO is more favorable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:26 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 10:26 PM I will work on some analogs packages. This is tricky this year as we were more La Nina last winter, trended back to neutral, and may trend weakly negative again. For now and subject to change... Temps... Dec: BN Jan: N Feb: AN Precip... All months normal to slightly BN IMHO...but w/ a chance for slightly AN if you like the CANSIPS. Snow... AN eastern valley w/ an early start normal everywhere else w/ snow a bit later in middle and west (but honestly might be similar to what you got this winter) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted yesterday at 02:53 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:53 AM As things look from this juncture ,we have a pretty good shot at a cold/ snowy Winter. The QBO should help lend to a more negative AO and NAO and the other drivers going to a more favorable position I see not much reason to not go for an overall cold and snowy Winter. However ,the IO bears watching as it , as we know, can throw a Monkey Wrench into an otherwise guaranteed Driver Setup but, not too concerned atm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago 13 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: As things look from this juncture ,we have a pretty good shot at a cold/ snowy Winter. The QBO should help lend to a more negative AO and NAO and the other drivers going to a more favorable position I see not much reason to not go for an overall cold and snowy Winter. However ,the IO bears watching as it , as we know, can throw a Monkey Wrench into an otherwise guaranteed Driver Setup but, not too concerned atm . I always forget about the IO, and it burns be every...single...time I forget about it. Usually Jeff comes in and is like, "Lots of convection moving into the Maritime Continent." It took me a few times, but then I figured out that was code for...winter is about to go to crap! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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