Carvers Gap Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Preliminary ideas. I look for a second winter of La Nina. Extended summer looks likely with a sharp turn to winter later in November, though the CANSIPS argues for an early fall. The Euro seasonal has summer lasting through fall. A 3-4 week period in December and January could be frigid. The QBO is now falling and has reached negative territory. Oddly, the data shows the QBO dipped negative briefly (and sharply) during December 2024 out of nowhere - interesting. To me, that looks like a mistake w/ the +/- symbol. Either way, it is falling now as we hit summer. By December, we should be hitting rock bottom. I think the stage is set for another frigid stretch sometime after or around mid-December. Sorry, I haven't been on for a bit. I have been taking a break and recharging. I have not looked at the EPO yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 10 hours ago Author Share Posted 10 hours ago The CANSIPS and Euro seasonals have the PDO going to neutral w/ warmer SST temps moving closer to the coast of northern NA as winter progresses. The La Nina on both models is weak and/or trending to neutral as winter progresses. I could almost cut and paste last winter's forecast with one exception....the QBO is more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 10 hours ago Author Share Posted 10 hours ago I will work on some analogs packages. This is tricky this year as we were more La Nina last winter, trended back to neutral, and may trend weakly negative again. For now and subject to change... Temps... Dec: BN Jan: N Feb: AN Precip... All months normal to slightly BN IMHO...but w/ a chance for slightly AN if you like the CANSIPS. Snow... AN eastern valley w/ an early start normal everywhere else w/ snow a bit later in middle and west (but honestly might be similar to what you got this winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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