June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[Sundog]

I think the 12z Euro will shine a light on our chances for 100 in NYC. It's trended downward from its Death Valley highs. If it continues to do so at 12z my confidence in other cooler models like the GFS will increase. 

[uofmiami]

36 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I think the 12z Euro will shine a light on our chances for 100 in NYC. It's trended downward from its Death Valley highs. If it continues to do so at 12z my confidence in other cooler models like the GFS will increase. 

Tomer Burg has been all over the EPS & Euro being too hot in the extended, see below tweet:

 

[Sundog]

Aha! 12z EURO has southerly winds on the coast for Monday, most of NYC has dropped into the 80s and some 70s by 8PM. 

But Tuesday might still look hot, I don't have it yet but winds go westerly overnight/very early Tuessday morning. 

[Sundog]

104 in NYC on Tuesday lol

[forkyfork]

global models are too broad with sea breezes

[Sundog]

Wednesday is significantly cooler compared to 0z. Now it has onshore flow and/or a northerly /NNE wind depending on where you are.

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

global models are too broad with sea breezes

Considering the Euro didn't have one at all for several runs and for the duration of the heat, the way next week will play out has changed quite a bit over the last couple days of model runs. 

 

[Sundog]

Euro went from having like 5 days in a row over 100 (and solidly over 100) to now only having Tuesday above 100. 

[Sundog]

What's interesting about Tuesday is that even though it gets NYC to 104 degrees, by 8PM we are in the upper 80s with a northerly wind. 

[forkyfork]

look at him go

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

look at him go

You still admire me after all these years, I'm touched

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

What's interesting about Tuesday is that even though it gets NYC to 104 degrees, by 8PM we are in the upper 80s with a northerly wind. 

How's central NJ looking, that'll be the hot spot next week. 

[Sundog]

I would have posted maps but the member data limit is set to an absurdly low level. 

[Sundog]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

How's central NJ looking, that'll be the hot spot next week. 

For Tuesday it's 100 to 105 depending on what part you are, hottest as you go east approaching the GSP

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

global models are too broad with sea breezes

sea breezes are no different from rain/snow lines

as a matter of fact the tracks are even similar, a summer with a lot of sea breezes is very likely to be followed by a winter with a lot of mixing and changeover along the coast, the physical processes are very similar.

It's no coincidence that some of our best snowfall winters came after summers that were dominated by a westerly flow.

e.g., 1933-34, 1944-45, 1955-56, 1966-67, 1977-78, 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03, 2010-11.

[Stormlover74]

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

What's interesting about Tuesday is that even though it gets NYC to 104 degrees, by 8PM we are in the upper 80s with a northerly wind. 

northerly wind is a nice dry hot wind here.

JFK has their hottest temperatures on northerly winds.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

look at him go

sea breeze lovers can be annoying lol, I hope we dont get one before it hits 100 here

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Euro went from having like 5 days in a row over 100 (and solidly over 100) to now only having Tuesday above 100. 

One day is good enough for me, let's get JFK to at least 100!

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, Sundog said:

104 in NYC on Tuesday lol

40C is ideal

 

[LibertyBell]

it hit 81 here at 2 pm partly sunny skies.

[forkyfork]

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

You still admire me after all these years, I'm touched

i think heat haters are funny

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

i think heat haters are funny

Depends on what kind of heat.

 

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i think heat haters are funny

I hate the heat it's true. But I am not posting anything untrue. Despite hating the heat I also posted how the Euro had near 110F a couple days ago. I post the good and the bad (what's good and bad depending on the reader's perspective of course.)

[SACRUS]

 

83 here and partly sunny.

[SACRUS]

30 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

global models are too broad with sea breezes

Seems like a similar evolution to last June's heatwave 

[TWCCraig]

37 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Aha! 12z EURO has southerly winds on the coast for Monday, most of NYC has dropped into the 80s and some 70s by 8PM. 

But Tuesday might still look hot, I don't have it yet but winds go westerly overnight/very early Tuessday morning. 

GFS still cool for Sunday while the Euro roasts us with offshore flow. Sunday may be hotter than Monday for those of us right on the coast

[SACRUS]

 

 

We'll see if this starts to light up later this pm

 

[SACRUS]

 

84/70 here

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I hate the heat it's true. But I am not posting anything untrue. Despite hating the heat I also posted how the Euro had near 110F a couple days ago. I post the good and the bad (what's good and bad depending on the reader's perspective of course.)

you'd love dry heat, it's great for your skin and heart health and improves life expectancy

 

AI Overview

 

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. Studies have indicated that: 

• Sauna use is linked to reduced mortality risk: A long-term Finnish study tracking over 2,300 men over 20 years found that frequent sauna use (4-7 times weekly) correlated with a significantly lower risk of death from all causes and cardiovascular disease, compared to less frequent users.
• Improved cardiovascular health: Sauna use can enhance cardiovascular function by increasing heart rate, improving circulation, and mimicking some effects of moderate exercise, potentially lowering the risk of cardiovascular events like heart attacks and strokes.
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