2025 Tropical Tracking Thread

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z tracks.

[Eskimo Joe]

36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That is an impressive ridge on the GFS that stops future Imelda’s northward progress right in its tracks. 

Last night's Euro dropped that same high in like it was something out of WWE.

[stormtracker]

7 hours ago, LP08 said:

Pretty cool trends...unfortunately gets stuck in SC 

Hits a damn wall right as it gets up to us.  Ugh

[stormtracker]

18z Euro another Carolina hit.  Max precip hits that CVA wall

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

18z Euro another Carolina hit.  Max precip hits that CVA wall

WB 18Z EURO: so it will be interesting to see the adjustment if any over the next few days.

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hits a damn wall right as it gets up to us.  Ugh

A literal wall of HP. Good news is we will get some cooler/less humid air for at least a few days for the beginning of the month.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO: so it will be interesting to see the adjustment if any over the next few days.

That map makes me livid

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

That map makes me livid

If it were winter...

[JenkinsJinkies]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hits a damn wall right as it gets up to us.  Ugh

Will we ever get a big rain again?

[WxWatcher007]

I'm still a bit skeptical of such a strong ridge, but if that is the case we will need to watch if future Imelda is able to get back offshore. If so, the guidance seems to believe some sort of regeneration is possible, and with that ridge rolling east that would probably lead to something running up the coast either inland or just offshore. Fantasy range but something to monitor. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm still a bit skeptical of such a strong ridge, but if that is the case we will need to watch if future Imelda is able to get back offshore. If so, the guidance seems to believe some sort of regeneration is possible, and with that ridge rolling east that would probably lead to something running up the coast either inland or just offshore. Fantasy range but something to monitor. 

I’ve seen this song and dance before. Once a ridge shows up to spoil our precip it’s here to stay. It goes hand in hand with walkbacks begetting further walkbacks.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

I’ve seen this song and dance before. Once a ridge shows up to spoil our precip it’s here to stay. It goes hand in hand with walkbacks begetting further walkbacks.

Maybe. This is a pretty anomalous ridge for this time of year I think. 

[Weather Will]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Maybe. This is a pretty anomalous ridge for this time of year I think. 

18Z AI solution brings it north by the end of the week.

[WhiteoutMD]

Just now, Weather Will said:

18Z AI solution brings it north by the end of the week.

was just about to say that

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said:

was just about to say that

Stalls off SC for several days first...WB 18Z AI.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EPS is actually a tick north compared to 12Z.

[Weather Will]

18Z AI ensemble does not support  its global solution to stall for a few days and then move northward.

[JenkinsJinkies]

38 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS is actually a tick north compared to 12Z.

I’ve seen this song and dance too just this past winter. It ticks slightly back in our direction to give false hope only to go even further south than before in the subsequent run.

[bncho]

2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I’ve seen this song and dance too just this past winter. It ticks slightly back in our direction to give false hope only to go even further south than before in the subsequent run.

february 19-20 debacle lol

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

february 19-20 debacle lol

That was all time horrific. Makes me sick even thinking about it. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That was all time horrific. Makes me sick even thinking about it. 

i went into a five day depression geunuinely thinking i'd never see a real snowstorm again 

[Weather Will]

WB OZ ICON has Imelda Jo be approach SC coast but then spins out to sea. Rain only makes it into SE  VA.

[SnowenOutThere]

58 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That was all time horrific. Makes me sick even thinking about it. 

The timing of that meant I relied on it so much for it to cancel at least one day of school and the weekend/week aftereffects where it fell apart was probably my worst week of high school. God, the fact that it just went the wrong way for 8 runs in a row when I just needed 2 inches was devastating.

[WxWatcher007]

What a ridge on the GFS  

[Weather Will]

0Z Can is also a miss. Rain does not even get to Norfolk....

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GEFS still lot of uncertainty on Imelda to be location and intensity. There are a few members that bring heavy rain to DMV.(some of the rain shown is from the weekend)

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z GEFS still lot of uncertainty  on Imelda to be location and intensity.  Very few members bring heavy rain to DMV.(Low to the east is Humberto.)

 

Watch the long range though. Remnants get picked up by a trough eventually.

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Watch the long range though. Remnants get picked up by a trough eventually.

I updated the map.  There are more members with heavier rain!

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I updated the map.  There are more members with heavier rain!

It’s a very interesting setup. Still very unclear what’ll happen.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

february 19-20 debacle lol

 

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That was all time horrific. Makes me sick even thinking about it. 

Talking about that event, or March 2013, should be insta IP ban.