Spring 2025 Med/Long Range Discussion

[dwagner88]

On 6/28/2025 at 5:13 PM, John1122 said:

It's been incredible to see how the rain and storms have danced around my area this week. Only caught a few passing sprinkles as storms fired close and died out as they reached me. The high rain chances for today and tomorrow have faded too. 

Same thing down here. I watched the storms pop up in the same areas three days in a row. Never rained more than a few drops IMBY. Some parts of town got 4"+ and flooding.

[John1122]

6 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

Same thing down here. I watched the storms pop up in the same areas three days in a row. Never rained more than a few drops IMBY. Some parts of town got 4"+ and flooding.

Happened again yesterday. A very heavy shower a mile or two away and nothing here. Today a storm has popped up a couple miles north of me. Loud thunder but unlikely to rain it appears. 

[nrgjeff]

4th of July front is a couple days early this year, but yes it seems almost obligatory recently. Could be hot again on the 4th though.

On 6/27/2025 at 10:18 PM, Matthew70 said:

Seems the past few years there has been a fropa come thru right before the 4th to make it very comfortable to watch the fireworks at night.  Maybe this year is the same.  

While temps will be above normal Friday through early next week, the humidify will not be what it was last week. I call it hot but not a bad heat wave. 

Starting around July 10 temps may settle to seasonable (hot but doable). PNA and GWO are friendly to the Southeast. Two paths are offered. CFS is weak heights Great Lakes, but Texas ridge could pulse into the Mid-South at times. Euro is AN heights North which can sometimes ooze South. Either pattern is friendly for less sustained heat here, perhaps even normal temps.

[dwagner88]

Blanked again. I think that's 5 days in a row of 60% or better POP's and only 0.06 total to show for it. I guess I start watering the lawn tomorrow. First time this year.

[nrgjeff]

The Split was real on Tuesday. However, MBY did fine the previous several days. 

After the hot temps July 4-8/9 the benign weather pattern is still forecast for a good chunk of July. Forecast looks seasonably hot but temps not much if any above normal. Greater anomalies should be north. CFS has the GL mild but it's an outlier. EC and GEFS weeklies have a hot Midwest, but that's OK. AN heights north leaves ours near normal, which will allow scattered pm t-storms. The latter two weekly products also line up with most teleconnections. 

Very end of July is still up in the air. The PNA pattern may get stale by then which would let in more heat, but not necessarily for long. We'll see.

[Carvers Gap]

Point Barrow, AK, is cold next week.  Yes, I do follow the weather there.  It sometimes can give a hint of things to come.  If cold builds their early - good thing.  Highs in the mid to low 30s next week.

[Wurbus]

I wound up having 3 storms roll over my house and got 3.12" yesterday. That is more than I received during the entire month of June (2.72"). My yard was starting to bake in the Summer heat but this should help it out for at least a week.

[John1122]

22 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

Blanked again. I think that's 5 days in a row of 60% or better POP's and only 0.06 total to show for it. I guess I start watering the lawn tomorrow. First time this year.

I ended up with .24 inches this whole last week. 

[Carvers Gap]

I managed to find my way to Mammoth Lakes last week and part of this week.  We saw it snow at 10k’ as a thunderstorm complex dropped temps like a rock while we were hiking.  We had temps in the low 40s. The mountain range to our east had new snowfall the next morning.  Crazy how the weather behaves at high elevation. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

oh thats interesting carvers gap woah that is pretty cool 

[John1122]

Wondering if it's going to be another week of rain all around me but not here like the last high chance week. Today it's going that way. It's been thundering since 2pm all around me but not a drop of rain yet. One of the strangest patterns I've ever seen, because the pop-up storms are so small. Just 3 or 4 miles wide in most cases. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

yes john we are apparently supposed to get a lot of rain chances this week in this unsettled pattern with percentages really increasing by a lot by mid week and starting today and tomorrow according to reading my afds from meg ohx mrx and hun

[John1122]

Got about ten minutes of a shower it turned out.