2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think 2013-2014 is definitely woth of inclusion as an analog...most notably for it's statospheric reflevtion events during  mid season.

It's an awful polar analog...agree there.

I assume you realize 25-26 and 13-14 are opposites with regard to QBO. Are you including that as part of the reason you said 13-14 is an awful polar analog?

[MJO812]

Another person with 2013-2014 analog for this winter.

 

[raindancewx]

Just for reference - NAO was different. But globally its pretty similar. Blocking should show up at times, its just when? I'm assuming the super persistent warmth/high pressure by Japan means on balance the NAO is not predominantly favorable for Nor'easters in the dead of winter int he Northeast. But during the transitional periods (Nov/late Feb-late Mar) I am more optimistic for big systems by the NE than in recent years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

I assume you realize 25-26 and 13-14 are opposites with regard to QBO. Are you including that as part of the reason you said 13-14 is an awful polar analog?

Yes.

[snowman19]

@Gawx This has been quite the solar and geomag spike since August

[snowman19]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

Another 5 sigma jet max for Alaska. The strong gradient between the  record SSTs over the WPAC and Siberian cold is driving this. So this leads to the continuing warmth for North America. 


 

I absolutely believe the seasonal models that this is going to be a northern branch dominated winter with a very muted/weak STJ. The deepening -PMM and Nina supports that projection 

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, anthonymm said:

lol sometimes you take things too far. Is it not lucky that central NJ got an intense lake effect like band in February of 24 that dumped over a foot overnight with no models suggesting anything close to these amounts? This one event combined with the other lighter storms brought them up to their 91-20 seasonal average for that winter. It could have easily impacted central park instead and brought them up to average.

I just said that where the mesoscale banding sets up could be considered luck like in February 2024 in regard to which specific areas got the heaviest totals. But the wider winter pattern in 23-24 being so warm was a function of the pattern.

Plus the banding locations are due to the pattern at the time of the storm. Even if the banding was closer to NYC, then it would still have been a well below average snowfall season for them. Since it’s very hard to reach average with just one snowfall event. Unless it’s a high end KU like February 1983 or January 2016.

So if the best the winter can produce is a very narrow snow band  surrounded by most areas finishing with well below average snow it’s due to specific meteorological and climatic warming factors. We only got one week that winter during February when the record STJ streak was able to have some positive influence.

In a way it was a much weaker El Niño backloaded winter event but the warmth that winter was the dominant factor. So as the winters continue to warm it results in the odds being tilted to more below normal snowfall outcomes.

This isn’t to say we can’t eventually see a really solid snowfall month going forward like a reflection of January 2022. But we still haven’t seen a month that good especially across the SE NJ sections like ACY northeast to Islip. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Just for reference - NAO was different. But globally its pretty similar. Blocking should show up at times, its just when? I'm assuming the super persistent warmth/high pressure by Japan means on balance the NAO is not predominantly favorable for Nor'easters in the dead of winter int he Northeast. But during the transitional periods (Nov/late Feb-late Mar) I am more optimistic for big systems by the NE than in recent years.

100% same page.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I absolutely believe the seasonal models that this is going to be a northern branch dominated winter with a very muted/weak STJ. The deepening -PMM and Nina supports that projection 

Agreed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the NAO will be okay in Decmber before becoming hostile for mid season, then turns more favorable in February...very much in line with raindance.

Gun-to-head picking a single season that mirrors the expected behavior of the NAO, it would be 2022-2023.

If you read between the lines, my stance was obvious last summer.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/08/preview-of-polar-domain-for-winter-2025.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Another person with 2013-2014 analog for this winter.

 

Everytime you post one of these inane click-whores' content, a weenie gets it's bun, and a brain cell dies.

[snowman19]

@Bluewave Thought you might find this interesting, it ties ocean current cycles in. Think arctic sea ice and solar also playing a role…
 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Bluewave Thought you might find this interesting, it ties ocean current cycles in. Think arctic sea ice and solar also playing a role…
 

It’s possible the record low Arctic sea ice in the Kara and Barents is helping to strengthen the blocking there leading to most of our blocking episodes being more -AO dominant than -NAO dominant.
 

 

 

Zack Labe‬

 

 ‪@zacklabe.com‬

· 1d

In contrast to the other side of the #Arctic, sea ice along the Atlantic front is a record low for this time of year. This relates to the recent record warmth and southerly winds/waves pushing the marginal ice zone closer to the North Pole. Data from @nsidc.bsky.social (nsidc.org/data/seaice_...).

 

ALT

 

39

 

 

 

 

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I just said that where the mesoscale banding sets up could be considered luck like in February 2024 in regard to which specific areas got the heaviest totals. But the wider winter pattern in 23-24 being so warm was a function of the pattern.

Plus the banding locations are due to the pattern at the time of the storm. Even if the banding was closer to NYC, then it would still have been a well below average snowfall season for them. Since it’s very hard to reach average with just one snowfall event. Unless it’s a high end KU like February 1983 or January 2016.

So if the best the winter can produce is a very narrow snow band  surrounded by most areas finishing with well below average snow it’s due to specific meteorological and climatic warming factors. We only got one week that winter during February when the record STJ streak was able to have some positive influence.

In a way it was a much weaker El Niño backloaded winter event but the warmth that winter was the dominant factor. So as the winters continue to warm it results in the odds being tilted to more below normal snowfall outcomes.

This isn’t to say we can’t eventually see a really solid snowfall month going forward like a reflection of January 2022. But we still haven’t seen a month that good especially across the SE NJ sections like ACY northeast to Islip. 
 

 

If the banding set up over them it would have upped the seasonal total at the park to about 18", a bit below their long term seasonal average of about 25". Certainly not "well below".

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

If the banding set up over them it would have upped the seasonal total at the park to about 18", a bit below their long term seasonal average of about 25". Certainly not "well below".

NYC finished 24-25 with only 7.5” of snow. They got 2” of snow from that very narrow band. So even if they got the 11.3” that New Brunswick did just to the south, that would have only resulted in around 16.8” on the season. Close to 10” below the long term average in the 25-26” range. 

[FPizz]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC finished 24-25 with only 7.5” of snow. They got 2” of snow from that very narrow band. So even if they got the 11.3” that New Brunswick did just to the south, that would have only resulted in around 16.8” on the season. Close to 10” below the long term average in the 25-26” range. 

I got a storm of 9" a few days before the 12" band, and 28.75" for the winter and about .5" below my wiinter average.  Some areas missed out, stinks for them.  Anthony was spot on on his assessment.  I have pictures of every snow to prove it.  

[DarkSharkWX]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the NAO will be okay in Decmber before becoming hostile for mid season, then turns more favorable in February...very much in line with raindance.

Gun-to-head picking a single season that mirrors the expected behavior of the NAO, it would be 2022-2023.

If you read between the lines, my stance was obvious last summer.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/08/preview-of-polar-domain-for-winter-2025.html

i agree... continuing into the start of nov a lot of guidance has the -NAO being quite persistent (even if its far out) which would make sense given the evidence that has been portrayed, Paul Roundy said that november would likely be the best month to curtail the SER, with the shift to more SER being sometime in january

[snowman19]

i agree... continuing into the start of nov a lot of guidance has the -NAO being quite persistent (even if its far out) which would make sense given the evidence that has been portrayed, Paul Roundy said that november would likely be the best month to curtail the SER, with the shift to more SER being sometime in january

If I’m not mistaken a bunch of the -IOD/Nina years saw -NAO/-AO in November. It looks like at least early November is going to start with a weak SPV

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I got a storm of 9" a few days before the 12" band, and 28.75" for the winter and about .5" below my wiinter average.  Some areas missed out, stinks for them.  Anthony was spot on on his assessment.  I have pictures of every snow to prove it.  

You live in a colder area west of I-95 than NYC and other warmer coastal areas. So in marginal storms when the I-95 corridor and points east change to rain your area can remain mostly snow.

NYC and coastal sections haven’t reached average mid 20s seasonal snowfall without at least one KU event since the 1990s. Prior to the 1990s NYC and the coastal sections were cold enough to reach mid 20s seasonal snowfall with a bunch of small to moderate events.

Hopefully, we can see at least an intermittent return to KU benchmark tracks over the remainder of the 2020s so NYC can have a shot at reaching average snowfall or better. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If I’m not mistaken a bunch of the -IOD/Nina years saw -NAO/-AO in November. It looks like at least early November is going to start with a weak SPV

I expect to the PV to beef up around the holidays and then we watch and wait for a January-February SSW.

[snowman19]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I expect to the PV to beef up around the holidays and then we watch and wait for a January-February SSW.

There are signs that the SPV (which is weak right now) bottoms out in early November then starts to strengthen later on in the month….

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There are signs that the SPV (which is weak right now) bottoms out in early November then starts to strengthen later on in the month….

I don't expect to be strong until towards the new year..."bottoming out" is one thing...

[snowman19]

This is AFTER yesterday’s nor’easter. Didn’t even make a dent in the long term drought. The staggering dryness since late July continues. Soil moisture is just as abysmal. So much for BAMWX’s hype back in September that the MJO was going to initiate some crazy wet pattern in the east in October along with possible landfalling tropical systems…..
 

[MJO812]

DT

[MJO812]

Don't know why snowman is laughing.  He is just explaining what he thinks.  There are other forecasters out there who are thinking the same in regards to the LA Nina .